Communicating the amount of windstorm induced forest damage by the maximum wind gust speed in Finland

Valta, Hannu; Lehtonen, Ilari; Laurila, Terhi K.; Venäläinen, Ari; Laapas, Mikko; Gregow, Hilppa

doi:10.5194/asr-16-31-2019

Cited by 27 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…Based on our study, significant differences were seen along the west, northwest, and north directions for the critical wind speeds and consequently wind speeds needed for the damage at certain forested point at the local meteorological station (Table 3). This is inline with the fact that recent storms over the study area had tracks along those directions (Valta et al 2019). Also, the distance to upwind stand edge was a significant variable (p value is 0.0642).…”

Section: The Utility Of Als and Aerial Image Data In Wind Damage Risksupporting

confidence: 72%

“…Hence, accurate projections of future windstorm climate are essential. In general, for the present climate, most wind storms over the study area are either along the west, northwest, or north directions, although rare easterly wind storms also occur (Valta et al 2019). In a recent study by Ruosteenoja et al (2019), it was found out that climate change will not have any major impact on wind direction during wind storm events.…”

Section: Relevance Of Wind Climate and Directionmentioning

confidence: 74%

“…Our field observations for wind damage data were from 2016, and therefore we ascertained the windstorm directions that could have been associated with such damaging events. From the observed wind climate data of 2014-2016 (Valta et al 2019), we identified that windstorm magnitudes were strongest along three directions: west, northwest, and north. Hence, there is a strong possibility that the recorded wind damage had been caused by winds primarily along these directions.…”

Section: Wind Climate and Wind Multiplier Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

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The utility of fused airborne laser scanning and multispectral data for improved wind damage risk assessment over a managed forest landscape in Finland

Gopalakrishnan

Packalén

Ikonen

et al. 2020

Annals of Forest Science

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Key message The potential of airborne laser scanning (ALS) and multispectral remote sensing data to aid in generating improved wind damage risk maps over large forested areas is demonstrated. This article outlines a framework to generate such maps, primarily utilizing the horizontal structural information contained in the ALS data. Validation was done over an area in Eastern Finland that had experienced sporadic wind damage. Context Wind is the most prominent disturbance element for Finnish forests. Hence, tools are needed to generate wind damage risk maps for large forested areas, and their possible changes under planned silvicultural operations. Aims (1) How effective are ALS-based forest variables (e.g. distance to upwind forest stand edge, gap size) for identifying high wind damage risk areas? (2) Can robust estimates of predicted critical wind speeds for uprooting of trees be derived from these variables? (3) Can these critical wind speed estimates be improved using wind multipliers, which factor in topography and terrain roughness effects? Methods We first outline a framework to generate several wind damage risk–related parameters from remote sensing data (ALS + multispectral). Then, we assess if such parameters have predictive power. That is, whether they help differentiate between damaged and background points. This verification exercise used 42 wind damaged points spread over a large area. Results Parameters derived from remote sensing data are shown to have predictive power. Risk models based on critical wind speeds are not that robust, but show potential for improvement. Conclusion Overall, this work described a framework to get several wind risk–related parameters from remote sensing data. These parameters are shown to have potential in generating wind damage risk maps over large forested areas.

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Section: The Utility Of Als and Aerial Image Data In Wind Damage Risksupporting

confidence: 72%

Section: Relevance Of Wind Climate and Directionmentioning

confidence: 74%

Section: Wind Climate and Wind Multiplier Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

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The utility of fused airborne laser scanning and multispectral data for improved wind damage risk assessment over a managed forest landscape in Finland

Gopalakrishnan

Packalén

Ikonen

et al. 2020

Annals of Forest Science

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“…Tämä johtuu pitkälti siitä, että myrskyn tuhovoima kasvaa nopeasti tuulen nopeuden voimistuessa. Suomessa on arvioitu, että sulan maan aikana tyypillinen laaja-alainen myrsky, jossa tuulen suunta on lännen tai luoteen puolelta, aiheuttaa karkeasti noin 0,3 miljoonan kuution metsätuhot, jos maa-alueiden voimakkaimmat tuulen puuskat ovat 25 m/s, mutta jos voimakkaimmat puuskat puhaltavatkin 30 m/s, puustotuhoja tulee jo noin 1,9 miljoonaa kuutiota ja 35 m/s tuulen puuskilla tuhot kasvavat noin 8,7 miljoonaan kuutioon (Valta et al, 2019). Esimerkiksi hieman Tapania voimakkaampi, mutta selvästi mittavammat metsätuhot aiheuttava myrsky on meillä ilmastonmuutoksesta riippumatta täysin mahdollinen.…”

Section: Myrskyt Ja Rajuilmatunclassified

Ilmastonmuutoksen vaikutukset Suomessa metsänhoidon näkökulmasta

Lehtonen¹,

Venäläinen²,

Gregow³

2020

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Growing forests sequester carbon from the atmosphere, and hence forests have an important role in mitigating climate change. Forests are also important as recreational areas, and natural forests are needed in maintaining biodiversity. On the other hand, the economic importance of forests is substantial in Finland as the forest industry is a major contributor to wellbeing in the country. Ongoing climate change and the multiple contradictory interests towards forests expressed from different sectors in society make it important to study how forests can be exploited in a sustainable way. Information on the magnitude and impacts of climate change are needed in revising the forest management recommendations. In this report, we present an assessment of climate change in Finland based on current knowledge and describe the expected effects of the change on forests and forestry. Over the last 150 years, the mean temperature in Finland has already risen by about 2 °C. Presently, the temperature continues to increase with a rate of almost 0.5 °C per decade, and by the mid-century, temperatures in Finland are expected to be approximately 1-1.5 °C higher than at present. The rate of warming during the latter half of the 21st century will largely depend on the future evolution of global greenhouse gas emissions. In Finland, the rate of warming is about twice as large as the global average. In addition to warming, precipitation levels, particularly in winter, are expected to increase in the future. On the other hand, drought may occur in summer more frequently than at present. Increasing temperature and rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration have already contributed to accelerating forest growth. In the future, our forests are projected to grow even more rapidly. On the other hand, an increasing frequency of forest damages may partly overrule this development. Particularly, spruce forests are vulnerable to many insect pests but in southern Finland also to drought. An example of a pest benefitting from the warming is the European spruce bark beetle. In winter, reduction of soil frost complicates the logistics of forest harvesting and increases the risk of root damage during the harvest. The risk of wind damage also increases as the soil frost decreases. Internationally, the goal is to limit global warming to less than 2 °C compared to pre-industrial era, i.e., the mid-18th century. This would require rapid global mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. So far, limiting the increase in global greenhouse gas emissions has not been adequately successful so that reaching the target would seem likely. Thus, there is a need to be prepared for a more severe warming. In the worst case, the temperature could rise even by more than 4 °C globally by the end of the 21st century. From the forest owner viewpoint, it is important to take care of the growth and vitality of the forest stands and to identify the risks threatening the stands, taking into account the variability of the stands and the terrain. To support risk management, th...

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“…Thus one storm object represents a solid area (polygon) where hourly maximum wind gust exceeds 15 m s −1 during one particular hour. The threshold of 15 m s −1 is selected as different sources indicate Finland being vulnerable for windstorms and rather moderate winds (from 15 m s −1 ) causing damages to forests (Valta et al, 2019;Gardiner et al, 2013). To estimate the windstorm impacts on forests, Valta et al (2019) developed a method by combining the recorded forest damages from the nine most intense storms and their observed maximum inland wind gusts.…”

Section: Identifying and Tracking Storm Objectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting power outages caused by extratropical storms

Tervo¹,

Láng²,

Jung³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Abstract. Strong winds induced by extratropical storms cause a large number of power outages especially in highly forested countries such as Finland. Thus, predicting the impact of the storms is one of the key challenges for power grid operators. This article introduces a novel method to predict the storm severity for the power grid employing ERA5 reanalysis data combined with forest inventory. We start by identifying storm objects from wind gust and pressure fields by using contour lines of 15 m s−1 and 1000 hPa respectively. The storm objects are then tracked and characterized with features derived from surface weather parameters and forest vegetation information. Finally, objects are classified with a supervised machine learning method based on how much damage to the power grid they are expected to cause. Random Forest Classifier, Support Vector Classifier, Naive Bayes, Gaussian Processes, and Multilayer Perceptron were evaluated for the classification task, Support Vector Classifier providing the best results.

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Communicating the amount of windstorm induced forest damage by the maximum wind gust speed in Finland

Cited by 27 publications

References 19 publications

The utility of fused airborne laser scanning and multispectral data for improved wind damage risk assessment over a managed forest landscape in Finland

The utility of fused airborne laser scanning and multispectral data for improved wind damage risk assessment over a managed forest landscape in Finland

Ilmastonmuutoksen vaikutukset Suomessa metsänhoidon näkökulmasta

Predicting power outages caused by extratropical storms

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