Communicating Uncertainty in Weather Forecasts: A Survey of the U.S. Public

Abstract

Weather forecasts are inherently uncertain, and meteorologists have information about weather forecast uncertainty that is not readily available to most forecast users. Yet effectively communicating forecast uncertainty to nonmeteorologists remains challenging. Improving forecast uncertainty communication requires research-based knowledge that can inform decisions on what uncertainty information to communicate, when, and how to do so. To help build such knowledge, this article explores the public's perspectives on everyday weather forecast uncertainty and uncertainty information using results from a nationwide survey. By contributing to the fundamental understanding of laypeople's views on forecast uncertainty, the findings can inform both uncertainty communication and related research.The article uses empirical data from a nationwide survey of the U.S. public to investigate beliefs commonly held among meteorologists and to explore new topics. The results show that when given a deterministic temperature forecast, most respondents expected the temperature to fall within a range around the predicted value. In other words, most people inferred uncertainty into the deterministic forecast. People's preferences for deterministic versus nondeterministic forecasts were examined in two situations; in both, a significant majority of respondents liked weather forecasts that expressed uncertainty, and many preferred such forecasts to single-valued forecasts. The article also discusses people's confidence in different types of forecasts, their interpretations of the probability of precipitation forecasts, and their preferences for how forecast uncertainty is conveyed. Further empirical research is needed to study the article's findings in other contexts and to continue exploring perception, interpretation, communication, and use of weather forecast uncertainty.

Operational forecast uncertainty assessment for better information to stakeholders and crisis managers

“…Such a result was not expected. Indeed, the existence of uncertainty is acknowledged and if no estimation is given, decision PDNHUV RIWHQ µDGG ¶ WKHLU own subjective uncertainty estimation [30] but feel uncomfortable with this practice. That is why uncertainty assessment and broadcast appeared as a long-awaited information.…”

Stakeholders' issues for action during the warning process and the interpretation of forecasts' uncertainties

“…Downton et al, 2005;Demeritt et al, 2007;Morss et al, 2008;Frick and Hegg, 2011). Their aim was to better understand how decision makers manage uncertainty in different situations: for instance, in predicting flood risk (Downton et al, 2005), in communicating everyday weather forecasts (Morss et al, 2008) and within the warning and alert chain (Frick and Hegg, 2011).…”

“…In most of the cases (except Morss et al, 2008), the people interviewed were rather high-up in the decision-making process. They tended to be administrative officers, flood managers and civil protection managers.…”

“…But what exactly is known about decision makers' needs along the decision making' chain in these different situations? Do they all, and always, deal in the same way with forecasts and probabilities and the inherent uncertainty of this kind of information (Morss et al, 2008)?…”

“…For hydro-meteorologists, the issue is quantifying uncertainties and their propagation in hydrological models and forecasts (Rossa et al, 2010). Another question social scientists face regards how to communicate uncertainties to users (Morss et al, 2008;Demeritt et al, 2010) and the impact of uncertain knowledge transfer on decision making and policies with regard to climate change, now and in the future (Wynne, 1992;Shackley and Wynne, 1996;Adger et al, 2005).…”