Communicating uncertainty to policy makers

Abstract

As the types of problems that policy-makers attempt to solve grow more complex, they increasingly are turning to scientists for specific advice. A critical challenge in communicating the results of scientific research arises when those results contain a great deal of uncertainty. Different academic disciplines offer diverging advice on how scientists should proceed, based in large part on differences in how the various disciplines view the process of decision-making process itself. In this chapter, the author links the strategies for communicating uncertainty to the decisionmaking models of economics, psychology, and sociology, respectively. He suggests that the relative strength of each strategy depends on the context within which the decision-maker is operating. To resolve this ambiguity about how best to communicate uncertainty, he offers first-best and second-best approaches. The first-best approach is rooted in a process of dialogue, with attention to two-way communication and the relationship between scientists and policy-makers. The second-best approach is rooted in the goal not of giving all decision-makers all of the information they need, but rather in providing them with just enough information to judge whether they need more. To assist in that latter task, the author suggests particular guidelines for the aspects of uncertainty that scientists need to communicate.

From Climate Change to Pandemics: Decision Science Can Help Scientists Have Impact

“…Firstly, it demands that the scientists understand the decision context. A better understanding of decision-maker needs-type of inputs needed, the local context, the timing of decisions, stakeholder preferences and values, the degree of risk or uncertainty that is acceptable-can enable tailoring of scientific outputs for best application (Patt, 2009; BOX 1 | An example of science and decision making. The "Death-Row Dingoes": feral goat control in Australia Ignoring societal values and the views of diverse stakeholders and a well-informed public can turn actions that meet scientific objectives into public policy failures.…”

“…Marcot et al, 2012). Secondly, dialogue is also pivotal for fostering relationships, shared understanding, trust (from the decision-maker) in the scientific integrity of the process, and trust (from the scientist) that cautions any uncertainties in predictions will be considered appropriately (Patt, 2009;von Winterfeldt, 2013;Doyle et al, 2014). Dialogue also allows scientists to gauge how their information is received, and provides them with the opportunity to clarify the scientific process, explain potential caveats or ways to apply findings across different contexts (Patt, 2009).…”

“…One of the specific challenges in decision science is how to communicate uncertainty in a way that supports decision making rather than inadvertently eliciting indecision or rejection of scientific information. Effective communication of uncertainty can build trust, and conversely, hiding uncertainty can undermine it (Patt, 2009). Uncertainty can arise from a range of sources, and these sources can include (but are not limited to) incomplete knowledge of all parameters within a complex system, incomplete control of how a response will be implemented, and errors in measurement of estimates (Johnson et al, 2015).…”

Event Attribution science in adaptation decision-making: the context of extreme rainfall in urban Senegal

“…However, practitioners are often experienced in making decisions about the future with uncertain information (Morss et al, 2005). Dialogue between scientists and policymakers can communicate the many dimensions to uncertainty (Patt, 2009) and, furthermore, could inform the application of the science so the events studied are relevant to policymakers and research questions are framed appropriately (Otto et al, 2015).…”

Novel Approaches for Web-Based Access to Climate Change Adaptation Information – MEDIATION Adaptation Platform and ci:grasp-2

“…Efficient communication of the scientific understanding of anthropogenic climate change is a prerequisite to induce the necessary shifts towards mitigation and adaptation. Against the background that such communication faces a multitude of challenges (e.g., [1][2]), web-based information systems hold some promise to facilitate the necessary dissemination of scientific information and to lower access barriers. However, designing effective information systems in the context of climate change is not a straightforward exercise due to two complimentary sets of challenges.…”