Community extinction patterns in coloured environments

Ruokolainen, Lasse; Fowler, Mike S.

doi:10.1098/rspb.2008.0193

Cited by 39 publications

(66 citation statements)

References 45 publications

(109 reference statements)

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“…The populations tracking these shifting equilibria may struggle to match them in the short-term, through under-or over-compensatory dynamics, until longer-term changes in conditions settle down and populations fluctuate around a new, more persistent equilibrium point (e.g. [38][39][40] for further illustration and discussion of this point).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Testing for effects of climate change on competitive relationships and coexistence between two bird species

et al. 2015

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Climate change is expected to have profound ecological effects, yet shifts in competitive abilities among species are rarely studied in this context. Blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) and great tits (Parus major) compete for food and roosting sites, yet coexist across much of their range. Climate change might thus change the competitive relationships and coexistence between these two species. Analysing four of the highest-quality, long-term datasets available on these species across Europe, we extend the textbook example of coexistence between competing species to include the dynamic effects of long-term climate variation. Using threshold time-series statistical modelling, we demonstrate that long-term climate variation affects species demography through different influences on density-dependent and density-independent processes. The competitive interaction between blue tits and great tits has shifted in one of the studied sites, creating conditions that alter the relative equilibrium densities between the two species, potentially disrupting longterm coexistence. Our analyses show that long-term climate change can, but does not always, generate local differences in the equilibrium conditions of spatially structured species assemblages. We demonstrate how long-term data can be used to better understand whether (and how), for instance, climate change might change the relationships between coexisting species. However, the studied populations are rather robust against competitive exclusion.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Testing for effects of climate change on competitive relationships and coexistence between two bird species

et al. 2015

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“…Interspecific interactions can directly respond to climate change (Blois et al, 2013). Environmental change can alter existing species interactions (Laws and Joern, 2013;Stenseth et al, 2015), alter the extinction risk of populations and species within communities (Ruokolainen and Fowler, 2008) or even change the type (3) level of community dynamics depending on species interactions (red). The small boxes indicate governing conditions, mechanisms, or drivers.…”

Section: Processes Driving Species and Community Distributionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Community dynamics under environmental change: How can next generation mechanistic models improve projections of species distributions?

Singer

Johst

Banitz

et al. 2016

Ecological Modelling

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Please cite this article in press as: Singer, A., et al., Community dynamics under environmental change: How can next generation mechanistic models improve projections of species distributions? Ecol. Model. (2015), http://dx. a b s t r a c tEnvironmental change is expected to shift the geographic range of species and communities. To estimate the consequences of these shifts for the functioning and stability of ecosystems, reliable predictions of alterations in species distributions are needed. Projections with correlative species distribution models, which correlate species' distributions to the abiotic environment, have become a standard approach. Criticism of this approach centres around the omission of relevant biotic feedbacks and triggered the search for alternatives. A new generation of mechanistic process-based species distribution models aims at implementing formulations of relevant biotic processes to cover species' life histories, physiology, dispersal abilities, evolution, and both intra-and interspecific interactions. Although this step towards more structural realism is considered important, it remains unclear whether the resulting projections are more reliable. Structural realism has the advantage that geographic range shifting emerges from the interplay of relevant abiotic and biotic processes. Having implemented the relevant response mechanisms, structural realistic models should better tackle the challenge of generating projections of species responses to (non-analogous) environmental change. However, reliable projections of future species ranges demand ecological information that is currently only available for few species. In this opinion paper, we discuss how the discrepancy between demand for structural realism on the one hand and the related knowledge gaps on the other hand affects the reliability of mechanistic species distribution models. We argue that omission of relevant processes potentially impairs projection accuracy (proximity of the mean outcome to the true value), particularly if species range shifts emerge from species and community dynamics. Yet, insufficient knowledge that limits model specification and parameterization, as well as process complexity, Abbreviations: C-SDM, correlative species distribution model; H-SDM, hybrid species distribution model; M-SDM, mechanistic species distribution model. Please cite this article in press as: Singer, A., et al., Community dynamics under environmental change: How can next generation mechanistic models improve projections of species distributions? Ecol. Model. (2015), http://dx.ECOMOD-7739; No. of Pages 12 2 A. Singer et al. / Ecological Modelling xxx (2015) xxx-xxxincreases projection uncertainty (variance in the outcome of simulated model projections). The accuracy-uncertainty-relation reflects current limits to delivering reliable projections of range shifts. We propose a protocol to improve and communicate projection reliability. The protocol combines modelling and empirical research to efficiently fill critical knowledge gaps that ...

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“…Further, how environmental reddening affects population dynamics depends on whether noise affects resource productivity (r i ) or consumer resource intake (I i ). Uncorrelated (between-species), reddened environmental variation amplifies fluctuations in the densities of competitors (Ruokolainen and Fowler, 2008;Ruokolainen and Ripa, 2012). In addition to the fact that the consumer couples more strongly to the resource that is favoured by the environment (having a relatively high growth rate and carrying capacity, which excites the consumer-resource cycle; Rip and McCann, 2011), this explains why environmental reddening destabilises food web dynamics under stochastic r i ′s.…”

Section: Environmental Colourmentioning

confidence: 99%

Environmental weakening of trophic interactions drives stability in stochastic food webs

Ruokolainen

McCann

2013

Journal of Theoretical Biology

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A 3-species food web model is analysed, with stochastic variation in parameters. Noise affects either resource growth or consumer intake as a Gaussian function. Noise variance, colour, and the consumers foraging adaptation rate is varied. Environmental characteristics impact on the consumer-resource interaction strength. Noise impact on population variability depends on where it hits in the food web. a r t i c l e i n f o t r a c tThe physiological performance and behaviour of organisms are contingent on environmental conditions. When these conditions vary over time, this can have important consequences for the dynamics of individual populations and entire species communities. While the importance of environmental variation on the structuring and stability of natural food webs is recognised, little work has been done so far to build up a theoretical understanding of these processes. Here we investigate a simple model food web, where a consumer species forages flexibly upon two distinct, inter-competing resource species. Resource productivities or the resource intake rates by the consumer are assumed to depend on environmental conditions in a realistic manner. Fluctuations in these parameters drive variation in the strength of consumer-resource interactions, depending on whether the resource or the consumer is sensitive to environmental noise. The way resources and the consumer respond to changes in environmental conditions stems from the deterministic influence of each stochastic parameter on food web dynamics, which interact with the consumer adaptation process as well as between-resource competition. According to recent empirical reports, the mechanisms behind our results are likely to be relevant in natural systems and thus the model predictions are of potential importance in understanding food web responses to environmental stochasticity in general.

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Community extinction patterns in coloured environments

Cited by 39 publications

References 45 publications

Testing for effects of climate change on competitive relationships and coexistence between two bird species

Testing for effects of climate change on competitive relationships and coexistence between two bird species

Community dynamics under environmental change: How can next generation mechanistic models improve projections of species distributions?

Environmental weakening of trophic interactions drives stability in stochastic food webs

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