Objective
We sought to derive and internally validate a Sepsis Risk Score (SRS) and a Severe Sepsis Risk Score (SSRS) predicting long-term risks of future sepsis and severe sepsis events among community-dwelling adults.
Design
National population-based cohort.
Setting
United States.
Subjects
30,239 community-dwelling adults ≥45 years old in the national REasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) cohort.
Interventions
None.
Measurements and Main Results
Over a median of 6.6 years (IQR 5.1-8.1) of follow-up, there were 1,532 first sepsis (incidence 8.3 per 1000 person-years) and 1,151 first severe sepsis (6.2 per 1,000 person-years) events. Risk factors in the best derived SRS and SSRS included: chronic lung disease, age≥75 years, peripheral artery disease, diabetes, tobacco use, white race, stroke, atrial fibrillation, coronary artery disease, obesity, hypertension, deep vein thrombosis, male sex, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein >3.0 mg/dL, Cystatin C ≥1.11 mg/dL, estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min/1.73m2, and albumin-to-creatinine ratio >30 mcg/mg. SRS risk categories were: very low (0-3 points; 2.3 events per 1,000 person-years), low (4-6; 4.1), medium (7-9; 6.5), high (10-12; 9.7), and very high (13-38; 21.1). SSRS risk categories were: very low (0-5 points;1.5 events per 1,000 person-years), low (6-9; 3.4), medium (10-13; 6.7), high (14-17; 9.9), and very high (18-45; 22.1). The SRS and SSRS exhibited good discrimination (bootstrapped C Index 0.703 and 0.742) and calibration (p=0.65 and 0.06).
Conclusions
The SRS and SSRS predict 10-year sepsis and severe sepsis risk among community-dwelling adults and may aid in sepsis prevention or mitigation efforts.