Community-level impacts of temperature on urban street robbery

Sorg, Evan T.; Taylor, Ralph B.

doi:10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2011.08.004

Cited by 47 publications

(40 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…This trend is not though consistent across different locales and constructs of criminal behavior (for contrasting trends see Block 1984; Cohn and Rotton 2000; Sorg and Taylor 2011). Several explanations have been advanced for this seasonal increase in robberies.…”

Section: Darkness As An Inhibitor Of Guardianshipmentioning

confidence: 96%

A Stab in the Dark?

Tompson

Bowers

2012

Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency

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Objectives:Test the influence of darkness in the street robbery crime event alongside temperature.Methods:Negative binomial regression models tested darkness and temperature as predictors of street robbery. Units of analysis were four 6-hr time intervals in two U.K. study areas that have different levels of darkness and variations of temperature throughout the year.Results:Darkness is a key factor related to robbery events in both study areas. Traversing from full daylight to full darkness increased the predicted volume of robbery by a multiple of 2.6 in London and 1.2 in Glasgow. Temperature was significant only in the London study area. Interaction terms did not enhance the predictive power of the models.Conclusion:Darkness is an important driving factor in seasonal variation of street robbery. A further implication of the research is that time of the day patterns are crucial to understanding seasonal trends in crime data.

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Section: Darkness As An Inhibitor Of Guardianshipmentioning

confidence: 96%

A Stab in the Dark?

Tompson

Bowers

2012

Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency

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“…Previous research addressed the relationships between crime in urban settings and physical and environmental variables such as altitude and slope (Breetzke, 2012), temperature and weather conditions (Anderson & Anderson, 1984;Butke & Sheridan, 2010;Carlsmith & Anderson, 1979;Cohn & Rotton, 2000;DeFronzo, 1984;Field, 1992;Salleh et al, 2012;Sorg & Taylor, 2011), vegetation (Donovan & Prestemon, 2012;Kuo & Sullivan, 2001;Troy, Grove, & O'Neil-Dunne, 2012;Wolfe & Mennis, 2012), land use (Kurtz, Koons, & Taylor, 1998;Wilcox, Quisenberry, Cabrera, & Jones, 2004), nighttime lighting (Weeks, 2003), and the spatial pattern of the built environment (Browning et al, 2010;Foster, GilesCorti, & Knuiman, 2010;Shu & Huang, 2003;Taylor & Harrell, 1996). Cerdá et al (2012) found reduced violence outcomes in some neighborhoods of Medellin, Colombia, that were the focus of an urban development plan that included a transportation system and public space improvements such as additional lighting, new pedestrian bridges and street paths, a library park, and buildings for schools and recreational centers.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using remote sensing to assess the relationship between crime and the urban layout

et al. 2014

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ElsevierPatiño Quinchía, JE.; Juan Carlos Duque; Pardo Pascual, JE.; Ruiz Fernández, LÁ. (2014). Using remote sensing to assess the relationship between crime and the urban layout. Applied Geography. 55:48-60. doi:10.1016Geography. 55:48-60. doi:10. /j.apgeog.2014 Using remote sensing to assess the relationship between crime and the urban layout Using remote sensing to assess the relationship between crime and the urban layout AbstractThe link between place and crime is at the base of social ecology theories of crime that focus in the relationship of the characteristics of geographical areas and crime rates. The broken windows theory states that visible cues of physical and social disorder in a neighborhood can lead to an increase in more serious crime. The crime prevention through environmental design (CPTED) planning approach seeks to deter criminal behavior by creating defensible spaces. Based on the premise that a settlement's appearance is a reflection of the society, we ask whether a neighborhood's design has a quantifiable imprint when seen from space using urban fabric descriptors computed from very high spatial-resolution imagery. We tested which land cover, structure and texture descriptors were significantly related to intra-urban homicide rates in Medellin, Colombia, while controlling for socioeconomic confounders. The percentage of impervious surfaces other than clay roofs, the fraction of clay roofs to impervious surfaces, two structure descriptors related to the homogeneity of the urban layout, and the uniformity texture descriptor were all statistically significant. Areas with higher homicide rates tended to have higher local variation and less general homogeneity; that is, the urban layouts were more crowded and cluttered, with small dwellings with different roofing materials located in close proximity to one another, and these regions often lacked other homogeneous surfaces such as open green spaces, wide roads, or large facilities. These results seem to be in agreement with the broken windows theory and CPTED in the sense that more heterogeneous and disordered urban layouts are associated with higher homicide rates.

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“…How weather and discretionary activities vary over spatial location (i.e. inter-neighbourhood, see Sorg & Taylor 2011) and different populations (i.e. stratifying victim populations by their routine activities) were also outside of the scope of this study.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Also, Anderson et al 1997;Ceccato 2005;Cohn & Rotton 1997;Hipp et al 2004;LeBeau 1994;Sorg & Taylor 2011;Van Koppen & Jansen 1999). Collectively, empirical findings suggest that climatological and meteorological variations are associated with patterns of crime, some of which are seasonal.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 94%

Testing time-sensitive influences of weather on street robbery

Tompson

Bowers

2015

Crime Sci

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Although the relationship between weather and crime has been extensively investigated over the past century, little consensus has emerged on the directions of the relationships observed and the mechanisms through which weather might exert its influence. This paper advances an argument that the interpretation of weather, and subsequent activities based on that interpretation, leads to spatio-temporal variations in criminal opportunities, and hence crime. Two hypotheses relating to unseasonal weather and effects of weather on discretionary activities are proposed. Negative binomial regression models are used to test these at the 6-hour shift unit of analysis on street robberies in the Strathclyde region of Scotland. In line with predictions, in this temperate microclimate, more favourable weather in winter (higher temperatures and low wind speeds) was associated with increases in robbery. Partial support was also found for the hypothesis regarding time delineated for discretionary activities. Here, temperature, wind speed and humidity were seen to be significant predictors of robbery during the night shift and weekends. Notably rain was shown to have a negative relationship with robbery at the weekends. This affirms that people are less likely to venture outdoors when it is raining when travel behaviour is optional. Counter to our hypothesised effects, fog was the only variable to significantly interact with public holidays. We conclude by discussing how these analyses might be extended and briefly discuss implications for crime prevention.

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Community-level impacts of temperature on urban street robbery

Cited by 47 publications

References 38 publications

A Stab in the Dark?

A Stab in the Dark?

Using remote sensing to assess the relationship between crime and the urban layout

Testing time-sensitive influences of weather on street robbery

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