Como os brasileiros escolhem os governadores? Desvendando as razões do voto para os executivos estaduais no Brasil em 2014

Abstract

Resumo Apesar da importância das disputas para os governos estaduais na política brasileira, pouco se sabe a respeito dos fatores que levam às escolhas dos eleitores para esses pleitos. Existem fatores comuns que ajudam a explicar a escolha dos eleitores em todo o país para os governos estaduais? Qual é o peso da avaliação do governo federal e da percepção sobre o desempenho da economia do país nas eleições nas unidades da federação? Candidatos à reeleição ou apoiados pelo governador são beneficiados pela avaliação positiva do governo federal? A preferência partidária importa na hora de escolher os candidatos a governador? Essas são as perguntas que buscamos responder, ainda que de maneira preliminar, neste artigo. Para isso, realizamos análises multivariadas a partir dos dados de nível individual produzidos pelo Estudo Eleitoral Brasileiro (Eseb) de 2014. Os resultados indicam que a preferência partidária, assim como nas eleições presidenciais, é importante elemento de escolha nos pleitos para os governos estaduais, e que a disputa entre PT e PSDB no plano nacional acaba por influenciar também o âmbito estadual.

Between Renewal and Stability: Party System Change from a Multi‐Level Perspective in Brazil (1998–2018)

“…Furthermore, the high value of sub-national variance accounts for more of this greater incongruity; sub-national party systems vary significantly. Our findings contradict those reported in the literature that there is no detachment between the political competition at the national and sub-national levels (Amaral and Tanaka, 2016), particularly regarding legislative elections in the country. Moreover, we find evidence that not all sub-national party systems are necessarily changing at the same pace, in the same direction, and with the same results as the national party system.…”

“…Considering the 2014 gubernatorial elections, there was an increase in the dispersion of winners and the number of votes by political party. In this election, nine parties made a governor in at least one state and had a discrepant percentage of votes from state to state (Amaral and Tanaka, 2016; Braga, 2016). The sub‐national variance of 0.645 found for this election illustrates this dispersion by showing that the patterns of party competition in gubernatorial elections were not as homogeneous between the states.…”

For whom the bell tolls: Party mediation effects on economic voting in a large democratic federation

“…The capacity of the different levels of government to impact economic growth is quite different. The received wisdom indicates that the voters' perception of the presidency and party preference is much more accurate than that of other political subunits (Amaral & Tanaka, 2016). Our framework does not rely on the fact that the president is effectively primarily responsible for economic results, but that the voter's perception places him or her in this prominent position, since we are not evaluating who is mainly responsible for economic growth in Brazil, but who receives electoral credit for it.…”