Comovement of Chinese provincial business cycles

Gatfaoui, Jamel; Girardin, Éric

doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2014.10.015

Cited by 6 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…The reasons behind the deviation between the two cycles can also be revealed. Also, the information of synchronization of BC could be considered and extended to FC (Gatfaoui & Girardin, 2015).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Is finance a veil? Lead‐and‐lag relationship between financial and business cycles: The case of China

Shen

Shi

Wu³

2018

Euro Fin Management

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This study examines the lead‐and‐lag relationship between financial cycles (FCs) and business cycles (BCs) by using Chinese provincial data. We construct FCs of the financial sector on the basis of three financial variables: credit‐to‐GDP (gross domestic product) ratios, house prices, and equity prices. We use the panel dynamic logit model to investigate the lead‐and‐lag effect between two sectors. Results show that each province has its own unique FCs and BCs. Hence, financial policies should be different in dissimilar provinces. Next, we find that FCs lead BCs and not vice versa. Furthermore, the leading effect is stronger in rich provinces than in poor areas.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Is finance a veil? Lead‐and‐lag relationship between financial and business cycles: The case of China

Shen

Shi

Wu³

2018

Euro Fin Management

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“…The main advantage of the algorithm by Artis et al. (2004) is associated with the explanation of the sources of uncertainty of turning points already identified (Gatfaoui and Girardin, 2015). Nevertheless, the methodologies by Artis et al.…”

Section: Methodologies Identified In the Selected Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

“…A third methodology is the one applied by Gatfaoui and Girardin (2015). These authors use the Harding and Pagan's (2002, 2006) concordance index, which quantifies the fraction of time during which a pair of regions are simultaneously expanding.…”

Section: Methodologies Identified In the Selected Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

“…The output resulted higher during expansions (46%), but during contractions, it experimented a loss of 17% due to cycle amplitude. Gatfaoui and Girardin (2015) calculate the steepness for Chinese regions and find low values for this indicator. Their results on steepness support the evidence that movement from peak to trough is slow.…”

Section: Characteristics Of Regional Cyclesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Regional business cycles in emerging economies: a review of the literature

Padilla

Otero

2022

IJOEM

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PurposeThis article offers a review of the literature on regional business cycles (BCs) in emerging economies. The objective is synthesizing the existing studies based on theoretical, empirical and methodological approaches.Design/methodology/approachThe methodological framework includes the following stages: research questions, bibliography location, the selection of articles and the evaluation of the literature, analysis and synthesis, and the reporting and use of results.FindingsThe evidence suggests that expansionary phases last longer than recessions'; public expenditure shows a pro-cyclical behavior; and factors such as productive structure and international trade explain the synchronization of regional BCs.Originality/valueUp until now, there is no research that performs a review of regional BCs in emerging economics.

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“…The synchronization observed in the eastern China was comparable to that observed in the United States at the end of the 1990s, while in the northwestern provinces the synchronization appears to differ from the process throughout the rest of China (Poncet, 2004). Gatfaoui and Girardin (2015) reported that that all of China's coastal provinces, except Hainan, were synchronized with the national cycle. Empirically, the multilevel dynamic factor model of Kose et al (2003) is often adopted to extract region-specific factors from provincial economic indicators.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional Clustering and Synchronization of Provincial Business Fluctuations in China

2018

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In this article, we propose a novel, multilevel, dynamic factor model, to determine endogenously clustered regions for the investigation of regional clustering and synchronization of provincial business fluctuations in China. The parameter identification and model estimation was conducted using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. We then conducted an empirical study of the provincial business fluctuations in China (31 Chinese provinces are considered except Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan due to the data unavailability), which were sampled from January 2000 to December 2015. Our results indicated that these provinces could be clustered into four regions: leading, coincident, lagging, and overshooting. In comparison with traditional geographical divisions, this novel clustering into four regions enabled the regional business cycle synchronization to be more accurately captured. Within the four regional clusters it was possible to identify substantial heterogeneities among regional business cycle fluctuations, especially during the periods of the 2008 financial crisis and the 'four-trillion economic stimulus plan'.

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Comovement of Chinese provincial business cycles

Cited by 6 publications

References 48 publications

Is finance a veil? Lead‐and‐lag relationship between financial and business cycles: The case of China

Is finance a veil? Lead‐and‐lag relationship between financial and business cycles: The case of China

Regional business cycles in emerging economies: a review of the literature

Regional Clustering and Synchronization of Provincial Business Fluctuations in China

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