Comparaison de différentes méthodes d'estimation des niveaux extrêmes en site à fort et à faible marnage

Andreewsky, Marc; Kergadallan, Xavier; Bernardara, Pietro; Benoît, Michel; Gaufres, Pierre; Trmal, Céline

doi:10.1051/lhb/2014035

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…The importance of the error depends on the geographic area and the historical period. If there are no sea level observations for the period of the studied storm, the actual harmonic components must be used to the astronomical tide prediction and changes in sea level must therefore be corrected on this tide prediction [3]; 4) Chart Datum References: when using non digitized tide gauge data or complementary information such as sketches of quays or docks, it is important to verify the consistency of the different chart data. Ignoring these, can lead to significant errors when estimating water levels.…”

Section: Difficulties On the Computation Of Historical Skew Surgesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantification of Historical Skew Surges: Challenges and Methods

Athimon

Giloy

Sauzeau

et al. 2022

Advances in Hydroinformatics

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The use of historical sources and data to improve knowledge of past extreme events is no longer to be demonstrated. Old quantitative and qualitative data on water levels available in non-digitized tidal charts, tide gauge records, newspapers, city council registers, engineers' reports, etc. can be used to reconstruct water levels and skew surges that occurred during a storm. Data from primary and/or secondary historical sources require a historical critical approach. This paper presents an interdisciplinary study that required a combined work between historians, geographers, geologists and engineers. In this study, nine different variables that can lead to uncertainties on the quantification of historical skew surges have been identified , such as tidal predictions, chart datum references or the reliability of the historical data. Starting from the historical critical method developed by historians over decades, we propose a three-step method to assess the quality of historical documents and define their level of reliability. The method is applied to two case studies: the storm of 16 th November 1940 and the storm of 15-16 th February 1941. Interesting results are provided and the study shows that by paying attention to the potential causes of uncertainties, by ensuring the reliability of historical sources and data through the use of the historical documents quality method, by deepening historical researches and by combining different scientific fields and methods, it is possible to reduce uncertainties and errors when quantifying historical skew surges.

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Section: Difficulties On the Computation Of Historical Skew Surgesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantification of Historical Skew Surges: Challenges and Methods

Athimon

Giloy

Sauzeau

et al. 2022

Advances in Hydroinformatics

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show abstract

“…The direct method, based directly on the analysis of maximum tidal water levels (Arns et al., 2013; Bulteau et al., 2015), does not exploit the available knowledge on the astronomical tidal component of the sea level (Mazas et al., 2014; Tawn et al., 1989). Moreover it seems to provide biased estimates of sea level quantiles corresponding to high return periods for locations with large tidal amplitudes (Andreewsky et al., 2014; Haigh et al., 2010). Indirect methods are therefore nowadays privileged.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extreme Sea Level Estimation Combining Systematic Observed Skew Surges and Historical Record Sea Levels

Criq

Gaumé

Hamdi

et al. 2022

Water Resources Research

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The estimation of sea levels corresponding to high return periods is crucial for coastal planning and for the design of coastal defenses. This paper deals with the use of historical observations, that is, events that occurred before the beginning of the systematic tide gauge recordings, to improve the estimation of design sea levels. Most of the recent publications dealing with statistical analyses applied to sea levels suggest that astronomical high tide levels and skew surges should be analyzed and modeled separately. Historical samples generally consist of observed record sea levels. Some extreme historical skew surges can easily remain unnoticed if they occur at low or moderate astronomical high tides and do not generate extreme sea levels. The exhaustiveness of historical skew surge series, which is an essential criterion for an unbiased statistical inference, can therefore not be guaranteed. This study proposes a model combining, in a single Bayesian inference procedure, information of two different natures for the calibration of the statistical distribution of skew surges: measured skew surges for the systematic period and extreme sea levels for the historical period. A data‐based comparison of the proposed model with previously published approaches is presented based on a large number of Monte Carlo simulations. The proposed model is applied to four locations on the French Atlantic and Channel coasts. Results indicate that the proposed model is more reliable and accurate than previously proposed methods that aim at the integration of historical records in coastal sea level or surge statistical analyses.

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Dynamiques et évolutions morpho-sédimentaires de l’avant-plage du secteur littoral de Combrit – Île-Tudy entre le XIXe et le XXIe siècle

Jabbar¹,

Hénaff²,

Deschamps³

2015

geomorphologie

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Au sein des systèmes littoraux, les avant-plages font partie intégrante des accumulations littorales, comprenant également les plages et les accumulations de haut de plage. Néanmoins, pour des raisons d'accessibilité limitée pour les observations scientifiques, les avant-plages et leur morphologie restent peu étudiées comparativement à la partie émergée du système. Notre travail s'appuie sur l'étude de l'avant-plage du secteur de Combrit-Île-Tudy (France), dans le sud du Finistère. Les objectifs de cette étude sont dans un premier temps de développer une méthode d'analyse des levés bathymétriques anciens (fournis par le Service Hydrographie et Océanographique de la Marine) en prenant en compte toutes les imprécisions inhérentes à ce type de données. Dans un deuxième temps, il s'agit de mettre en évidence des évolutions morphologiques de l'avant-plage par la comparaison des données anciennes fournies par le Service Hydrographique et Océanographique de la Marine (SHOM ; XIX e et XX e siècles) et récentes (2012). La comparaison de Modèles Numériques de Terrain (MNT) permet d'identifier au moins trois tendances d'évolution distinctes entre 1818 et 2012 : une situation d'érosion de l'avant-plage entre 1818 et 1903, suivie d'un exhaussement généralisé entre 1903 et 1971, puis d'un nouvel abaissement des fonds entre 1971 et 2012. À la suite de ces résultats, les causes de ces modifications sont abordées au travers de différentes hypothèses. En effet, plusieurs facteurs sont susceptibles d'avoir une action directe ou indirecte sur la morphologie de l'avant-plage. Parmi ceux-ci, des forçages naturels (modification du régime de houle, impacts des évènements météo-marins majeurs) auxquels s'associent, sans doute, des pressions humaines (extractions de sable et poldérisation, notamment).

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Comparaison de différentes méthodes d'estimation des niveaux extrêmes en site à fort et à faible marnage

Cited by 3 publications

References 5 publications

Quantification of Historical Skew Surges: Challenges and Methods

Quantification of Historical Skew Surges: Challenges and Methods

Extreme Sea Level Estimation Combining Systematic Observed Skew Surges and Historical Record Sea Levels

Dynamiques et évolutions morpho-sédimentaires de l’avant-plage du secteur littoral de Combrit – Île-Tudy entre le XIXe et le XXIe siècle

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