Comparative Analysis of The Growth of School Students Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Methods Analisis

Abstract

This study aims to analyze and predict the number of Elementary School Students using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method using data from the last 17 years, case studies in three provinces namely Bali, West Nusa Tenggara (NTB), and East Nusa Tenggara (NTT). This type of research is quantitative by comparing the final value on the first graph to the fourth graph to analyze on the graph what the predictive value is most accurate. Based on the results of the simulation of the number of elementary school students in Bali, NTB, and NTT provinces using the G-MFS application program and mathematical model calculations that the predicted results in 2021 on the data of the number of elementary school students in Bali province amounted to 417,805.40 with a percentage decrease of 0.1%, then the predicted result in the data of the number of elementary school students in NTB province of 512,381.76 with a percentage increase of 1.0%. The predicted result on the data of the number of elementary school students in NTT province amounted to 705,335.11 with an increase of 1.0%. The results of the forecasting of the number of elementary school students are expected to provide important information for the government to improve development in the education sector, especially at the elementary school education level in one way that is to improve the quality of educational infrastructure and many more developments that need to be done by the number of students in the future.