Comparative Assessment of Anomally Dry Weather Conditions in the Ulyanovsk Region in the Xxi Century on the Example of 2010 and 2021

Abstract

The article presents comparative characteristics of agrometeorological monitoring of drought in 2021 with an intensely dry year in 2010 in order to optimize measures to reduce the negative impact and improve knowledge about climate mechanisms that control the periods of their onset and termination. The results of observations of the agrometeorological post Timiryazevsky from 2000 to 2021, on the territory of the Ulyanovsk region, revealed that the average annual air temperature in the twenty-first century increased by 1.4 ° C and, as a result of the increase in temperature, the number of dry years increased. For twenty-two years of the current century, for fourteen years, differential droughts of varying intensity were observed. However, the persistent droughts of 2010 and 2021 proved to be the most devastating, depending on the duration and severity of the temperature impact, and caused significant damage to both early and late crops. Despite local heavy rainfall in April-August 2021, an abnormally high temperature regime was observed, which characterized a stable drought ahead of 2010. The high air temperatures of the growing season in 2021 (23.6°С) exceeded the temperature anomaly in 2010 (15.8°С) by 7.8°С, precipitation in 2021 for the same period (-36.3 mm) fell by 102 .2 mm more than in 2010 (-138.5 mm). Since precipitation fell locally and was of a stormy nature, they could not make up for the excess heat and the yield turned out to be lower than in 2010 by 0.04 t/ha. This comparative assessment of the most anomalously drought year 2010 in the history of meteorological observations in the region and their analysis call for more attention to preventive measures: to move from reactive approaches to proactive actions that allow to eliminate the root causes of drought and socio-environmental vulnerability, as well as avoiding and minimizing risks that require much less cost than response and response.