Comparative assessment of climate change and its impacts on three coastal aquifers in the Mediterranean

Stigter, Tibor; Nunes, João Pedro; Pisani, Bruno; Fakir, Younes; Hugman, Rui; Li, Y.; Tomé, S.; Ribeiro, Luís; Samper, Javier; Oliveira, Rodrigo Proença de; Monteiro, J. P.; Silva, A.; Tavares, Paulo Amador; Shapouri, M.; Fonseca, Luı́s Cancela da; Himer, Hicham El

doi:10.1007/s10113-012-0377-3

Cited by 75 publications

(52 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…By applying average monthly and yearly rainfall values to determine recharge, this effect has not been considered. Considering that current climate change predictions for the region indicate greater inter-annual variation and greater seasonal concentration of rainfall (Stigter et al 2014), a more comprehensive analysis of the effect of changes in recharge is necessary. Induced recharge in BC scenarios (ii) has an inverse behavior to stream discharge.…”

Section: Transient Cyclic Scenarios Of Seasonal Variationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Several efforts during the past few years have begun to analyze the factors that influence sustainable groundwater use in the region Salvador et al 2012;Stigter et al 2013a;Hugman et al 2013;Stigter et al 2014). Apart from issues of adequate groundwater quantity and quality for human needs, there is a need to determine criteria for sustainability which take into account other users such as GDE.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modeling the spatial and temporal distribution of coastal groundwater discharge for different water use scenarios under epistemic uncertainty: case study in South Portugal

et al. 2014

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The following paper presents a discussion of spatial and temporal distribution of groundwater discharge estimates at a regional scale for two coastal aquifer systems in the Algarve region. A finite element distributed parameter groundwater flow model is applied to analyze the effect of uncertainties regarding definition of model boundary conditions and seasonality on estimated values. Finally, estimates of sustainable yields are provided based on predefined sustainability criteria and the importance of well location is analyzed. Steady-state simulations indicate a range of average annual coastal discharge between 6.5 9 10 6 and 15 9 10 6 m 3 /year from the AlbufeiraRibeira de Quarteira aquifer, and 4.5 9 10 6 and 11.3 9 10 6 m 3 /year from the Quarteira aquifer, as well as significant spatial variation. Transient simulations show that seasonal variability inherent to these systems can lead to inversions of hydraulic head gradient during short periods. Model results indicate that coastal discharge rates are between 1.5 and 2 times higher during the peak winter months than during the minimum in the summer, and as such seasonality has a larger impact on discharge rates than BC conceptualization. Up to 3.31 9 10 6 m 3 /year could be abstracted from existing well fields without causing seawater intrusion problems. Historical levels of abstraction are not within the selected sustainability criteria. However, by placing abstraction further from the coast sustainable yield increases. This work is part of ongoing research that aims to identify and characterize groundwater flow from the coastal strip towards the continental platform, taking into account structural geology, marine geology and the effects of the hydrological/hydrogeologic conditions on the associated ecosystems.

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Section: Transient Cyclic Scenarios Of Seasonal Variationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the spatial and temporal distribution of coastal groundwater discharge for different water use scenarios under epistemic uncertainty: case study in South Portugal

et al. 2014

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“…The groundwater recharge from precipitation in the outcropping aquifers in the Fluvià River catchment area was computed by Visual-BALAN 2.0 [30], a user-friendly modular design model based on a physical water-soil balance that has been successfully applied in many areas [23,36].…”

Section: Recharge Assessment and Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate and Land Use Changes on Streamflow and Subsurface Recharge in the Fluvià Basin, Spain

Candela

Tamoh

Olivares

et al. 2016

Water

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Climate change impact on water resources (streamflow and deep natural recharge) based on the downscaled outputs from the ECHAM5 general circulation model (GCM) has been investigated in the Mediterranean basin (Fluvià, Spain) for the A2, B1 greenhouse scenarios and 2000-2024/2025-2050 time slices. The HEC-HMS 3.4 rainfall-runoff numerical model was the basic tool used to generate streamflow for the historical period, and deep natural recharge was calculated from Visual-BALAN 2.0, a water-soil-plant distributed model. The hydrologic and recharge models were employed to generate future climate change hydrographs and the deep recharge amount. Furthermore, the selected future climate scenarios, subject to possible changes in the land use/land cover forecast, were integrated into the models, and water resource impacts were assessed. The multiple combinations of climate model, time slices, greenhouse scenarios, land use/land cover scenarios and hydrological estimation methods resulted in six scenarios. The obtained results estimate an increase in temperature (1.5˝C), a decline in precipitation (17%) and a maximum decrease of 49.5% and 16.8% in runoff and groundwater recharge, respectively, for 2050 (A2) compared to the historical values. Planned land cover scenarios, implying small changes of agricultural and forested land, show no major contribution to future water resource changes. According to the results, the most sensitive parameters conditioning future water resources are changes in temperature and precipitation.

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“…Strong changes in the seasonal distribution of precipitation, with a concentration of rainfall during the winter season and an increase in the frequency and intensity of droughts, in conjunction with warming, are expected to have a profound impact on water resources (Santos and Miranda 2006;Stigter et al 2011). In fact, a reduction in aquifer recharge of~25 % is expected towards the end of the century in Mediterranean semi-arid areas, as shown by Stigter et al (2014) for case studies in south Portugal, Spain and Morocco. Nonetheless, there is still limited knowledge on the potential consequences of climate variability on aquifer levels.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 96%

“…Nonetheless, there is still limited knowledge on the potential consequences of climate variability on aquifer levels. In the Algarve, climate scenarios have been included in previous studies that examined the influence of aquifer properties and the spatial and temporal distribution of recharge and abstraction on sustainable yields Stigter et al 2014). Climate projections were translated into hypothetical distributions of recharge throughout the hydrological year (concentrated versus spread) which were then input to a numerical groundwater flow model to produce forecasts.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climatic and geologic controls on the piezometry of the Querença-Silves karst aquifer, Algarve (Portugal)

2016

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Karst aquifers in semi-arid regions, like Querença-Silves (Portugal), are particularly vulnerable to climate variability. For the first time in this region, the temporal structure of a groundwater-level time series was explored using the continuous wavelet transform. The investigation focused on a set of four piezometers, two at each side of the S. Marcos-Quarteira fault, to demonstrate how each of the two sectors of the aquifer respond to climate-induced patterns. Singular spectral analysis applied to an extended set of piezometers enabled identification of several quasi-periodic modes of variability, with periods of 6.5, 4.3, 3.2 and 2.6 years, which can be explained by low-frequency climate patterns. The geologic forcing accounts for~15 % of the differential variability between the eastern and western sectors of the aquifer. The western sector displays spatially homogenous piezometric variations, large memory effects and low-pass filtering characteristics, which are consistent with relatively large and uniform values of water storage capacity and transmissivity properties. In this sector, the 6.5-year mode of variability accounts for~70 % of the total variance of the groundwater levels. The eastern sector shows larger spatial and temporal heterogeneity, is more reactive to short-term variations, and is less influenced by the low-frequency components related to climate patterns.

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Comparative assessment of climate change and its impacts on three coastal aquifers in the Mediterranean

Cited by 75 publications

References 28 publications

Modeling the spatial and temporal distribution of coastal groundwater discharge for different water use scenarios under epistemic uncertainty: case study in South Portugal

Modeling the spatial and temporal distribution of coastal groundwater discharge for different water use scenarios under epistemic uncertainty: case study in South Portugal

Climate and Land Use Changes on Streamflow and Subsurface Recharge in the Fluvià Basin, Spain

Climatic and geologic controls on the piezometry of the Querença-Silves karst aquifer, Algarve (Portugal)

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