Comparative Assessment of Climate Change Scenarios Based on Aquatic Food Web Modeling

Abstract

In the years 2004 and 2005, we collected samples of phytoplankton, zooplankton, and macroinvertebrates in an artificial small pond in Budapest (Hungary). We set up a simulation model predicting the abundances of the cyclopoids, Eudiaptomus zachariasi, and Ischnura pumilio by considering only temperature and the abundance of population of the previous day. Phytoplankton abundance was simulated by considering not only temperature but the abundances of the three mentioned groups. When we ran the model with the data series of internationally accepted climate change scenarios, the different outcomes were discussed. Comparative assessment of the alternative climate change scenarios was also carried out with statistical methods.

Climate change and freshwater zooplankton: what does it boil down to?

“…(Gerten and Adrian 2000) to 3 months in Bythotrephes longimanus (Manca et al 2007). Theoretical studies also suggest that phenological events in freshwater zooplankters will advance considerably (Schalau et al 2008;Sipkay et al 2008;Vadadi-Fülöp et al 2009). An important consideration here is the advancement in the timing of the CWP (e.g., Gerten and Adrian 2000;Straile 2002;Wagner and Benndorf 2007).…”

“…Such an approach neglects some ultimate drivers and tends to focus on the core of the process, still it can provide fairly significant pieces of a puzzle when the overall system behavior is to be disentangled. Such models do not aimed at serving biological interpretation of mathematical operations, rather stress predictions of considerable applicability (e.g., Hufnagel and Gaál 2005;Sipkay et al 2008Sipkay et al , 2009Sipkay et al , 2012Vadadi-Fülöp et al 2009). …”

Community Ecological Effects of Climate Change

“…The "tactical model" is a simulation model fitted to the observed temperature data set ). The tactical models could be beneficial if the general functioning of ecosystems is in the focus (Hufnagel & Gaál 2005;Sipkay et al 2008aSipkay et al , 2008bSipkay et al 2009;Vadadi et al 2009). (Kiss, 1994).…”

Mesozooplankton in a stressed area of the Nile Delta Coast, Egypt.

“…Zooplankton can be used as "bioindicators" for water pollution (Oliver, 1996), changes in marine ecosystems (Falcão et al 2012), and the effect of human activities (Leonardo et al 2009;Vadadi-Fülöp et al 2009). This because they have substantial different structure (Havens and Hanazato, 1993;Gyllström et al 2005), different life cycles (Jakhar, 2013), and they are of high susceptibility to the environmental changes (Neto et al 2014).…”