Comparative Coastal Risk Index (CCRI): A multidisciplinary risk index for Latin America and the Caribbean

Abstract

As the world’s population grows to a projected 11.2 billion by 2100, the number of people living in low-lying areas exposed to coastal hazards is projected to increase. Critical infrastructure and valuable assets continue to be placed in vulnerable areas, and in recent years, millions of people have been displaced by natural hazards. Impacts from coastal hazards depend on the number of people, value of assets, and presence of critical resources in harm’s way. Risks related to natural hazards are determined by a complex interaction between physical hazards, the vulnerability of a society or social-ecological system and its exposure to such hazards. Moreover, these risks are amplified by challenging socioeconomic dynamics, including poorly planned urban development, income inequality, and poverty. This study employs a combination of machine learning clustering techniques (Self Organizing Maps and K-Means) and a spatial index, to assess coastal risks in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) on a comparative scale. The proposed method meets multiple objectives, including the identification of hotspots and key drivers of coastal risk, and the ability to process large-volume multidimensional and multivariate datasets, effectively reducing sixteen variables related to coastal hazards, geographic exposure, and socioeconomic vulnerability, into a single index. Our results demonstrate that in LAC, more than 500,000 people live in areas where coastal hazards, exposure (of people, assets and ecosystems) and poverty converge, creating the ideal conditions for a perfect storm. Hotspot locations of coastal risk, identified by the proposed Comparative Coastal Risk Index (CCRI), contain more than 300,00 people and include: El Oro, Ecuador; Sinaloa, Mexico; Usulutan, El Salvador; and Chiapas, Mexico. Our results provide important insights into potential adaptation alternatives that could reduce the impacts of future hazards. Effective adaptation options must not only focus on developing coastal defenses, but also on improving practices and policies related to urban development, agricultural land use, and conservation, as well as ameliorating socioeconomic conditions.

Comparing the cost effectiveness of nature-based and coastal adaptation: A case study from the Gulf Coast of the United States

“…Natural hazards in coastal zones pose high and increasing risks to people, property and habitats [ 1 ]. The combined influence of coastal storms, rising sea levels, urban development, population growth and land subsidence are increasing flood risk in coastal areas worldwide [ 2 – 7 ]. By 2050, flood damage in the world’s coastal cities is expected to reach $1 trillion a year [ 8 ].…”

The Relative Role of Climate Variation and Control Interventions on Malaria Elimination Efforts in El Oro, Ecuador: A Modeling Study

“…El Oro's border location, along the Pan American highway, a route used by many migrants, makes it particularly vulnerable to malaria resurgence. In addition, El Oro is one of the most hazardous coastal zones in Latin America and the Caribbean (Calil et al, 2017). Vulnerable populations are susceptible to the effects of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, which intensifies annual flooding events during the rainy season (Lowe et al, 2017;Tauzer et al, 2019).…”

Afrodescendientes e indígenas vulnerables al cambio climático: desacuerdos frente a medidas preventivas estatales ecuatorianas

“…La experiencia de este país permite dar un marco general a esta investigación, desde una perspectiva regional y global. Perú, al igual que muchos países, se ve afectado cada año por el fenómeno del Niño, evento climático océano-atmósfera a gran escala interanual, por el cual algunas regiones de América Latina han sufrido desastres naturales (Kovats et al 2003;s/a 2008;Salazar y Rivera 2013;Calil et al 2017). Solo hasta noviembre de 2019 las inundaciones dieron lugar a 39 fallecidos, más de 8000 personas afectadas e infraestructura destruida, como puentes (19) y centros de salud (siete), entre otros (Efeverde 2019).…”

“…El Ecuador tiene muchas dificultades para responder a esta variabilidad climática. Con una población altamente vulnerable, tiene un puntaje de peligro cinco, el más alto-en la evaluación de riesgos costeros en América Latina y el Caribe, conjuntamente con México y Perú (Calil et al 2017). Si se toma en consideración una de las dimensiones relevantes de la vulnerabilidad, como es la pobreza por necesidades básicas insatisfechas (NBI), Esmeraldas, con una tasa del 55,8%, es una de las zonas más afectadas.…”