Comparative Risk Assessment of the Burden of Disease from Climate Change

Abstract

The World Health Organization has developed standardized comparative risk assessment methods for estimating aggregate disease burdens attributable to different risk factors. These have been applied to existing and new models for a range of climate-sensitive diseases in order to estimate the effect of global climate change on current disease burdens and likely proportional changes in the future. The comparative risk assessment approach has been used to assess the health consequences of climate change worldwide, to inform decisions on mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, and in a regional assessment of the Oceania region in the Pacific Ocean to provide more location-specific information relevant to local mitigation and adaptation decisions. The approach places climate change within the same criteria for epidemiologic assessment as other health risks and accounts for the size of the burden of climate-sensitive diseases rather than just proportional change, which highlights the importance of small proportional changes in diseases such as diarrhea and malnutrition that cause a large burden. These exercises help clarify important knowledge gaps such as a relatively poor understanding of the role of nonclimatic factors (socioeconomic and other) that may modify future climatic influences and a lack of empiric evidence and methods for quantifying more complex climate–health relationships, which consequently are often excluded from consideration. These exercises highlight the need for risk assessment frameworks that make the best use of traditional epidemiologic methods and that also fully consider the specific characteristics of climate change. These include the long-term and uncertain nature of the exposure and the effects on multiple physical and biotic systems that have the potential for diverse and widespread effects, including high-impact events.

Impacto del cambio climático en las enfermedades infecciosas

“…21 Uno de los sistemas de vigilancia epidemioló-gica que permiten predecir la aparición de brotes es el publicado por la OMS en al año 2005, denominado "early warning system model" (EWS), realizado con el objetivo de lograr una rápida identificación de los brotes epidémicos, como primer paso importante para la implementación de intervenciones eficaces. Este sistema incorpora información relacionada con el clima, medio ambiente y además utiliza sistemas de información geográfica (SIG), que posibilitan predecir a través de modelos matemáticos la aparición de las epidemias, lo cual permite individualizar la sensibilidad de las distintas enfermedades infecciosas a la variabilidad climática e identificar aquellas para las cuales las predicciones climáticas ofrecerían el mayor potencial de control de la enfermedad.…”

Health Equity and Children's Rights

“…Given our rapidly advancing knowledge of early brain development, 14,19,92,93 the differential effects of the physical environment on the developing child, [94][95][96] epigenetics, 94,96 the prevalence of environmental injustice, 96 and the potential effects of climate change on children, [65][66][67][97][98][99][100] it is incumbent on society to consider the environment and environmental justice in the context of child health equity.…”

Lack of association between drought and mental health in a cohort of 45–61 year old rural Australian women

“…This paper answers repeated calls for empirical studies on the effects of adverse weather events -such as drought -on mental health 52,53 and, as recommended, provides a thorough investigation of the association between mental health and drought, taking into account influences other than drought. 54,55 Over the 12 years of this longitudinal prospective study, drought was not associated with poorer mental health in mid-aged women in general, or in groups of potentially vulnerable women.…”