Comparative seasonalities of influenza A, B and ‘common cold’ coronaviruses – setting the scene for SARS-CoV-2 infections and possible unexpected host immune interactions

Liu, Yang; Lam, Tommy Tsan-Yuk; Lai, Florence; Krajden, Mel; Drews, Steven J.; Hatchette, Todd F.; Fraaij, Pieter L. A.; Kampen, Jeroen J. A. van; Badarch, Darmaa; Nymadawa, Pagbajabyn; Tee, Kok Keng; Lee, Hong Kai; Koay, Evelyn Siew-Chuan; Jennings, Lance C.; Tang, Julian W.

doi:10.1016/j.jinf.2020.04.032

Cited by 9 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…A similar seasonal pattern of infections has been reported for SARS-CoV, which was prevalent mostly during winter months [2]. Despite this, there is sparse evidence on the seasonal behavior of the novel SARS-CoV-2 [6], and there are conflicting reports on how its transmission is affected by meteorological conditions. In this context, our study provides the most comprehensive and up-to-date evidence for a robust and significant impact of temperature and dewpoint on SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 60%

“…Because SAR-CoV-2 is a recently identified human pathogen, seasonal variations in its transmission have not become evident, though there is much speculation that seasonal change with the boreal summer might decrease infection rates of SARS-CoV-2 and help flatten the epidemic curve of COVID-19 [6]. Several studies, varying in their geographical sampling, used in our calculations is available in excel sheets that are labelled for ease of use: The URL is https:// www.dropbox.com/sh/d32xjzy1luifty2/ AABylbaD985DyLRmKGEGLxoWa?dl=0 Data Repositories Referenced in Manuscript: Meteorological Data: https://www7.ncdc.noaa.gov/ CDO/cdoselect.cmd.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Evidence and magnitude of the effects of meteorological changes on SARS-CoV-2 transmission

et al. 2021

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Importance Intensity and duration of the COVID-19 pandemic, and planning required to balance concerns of saving lives and avoiding economic collapse, could depend significantly on whether SARS-CoV-2 transmission is sensitive to seasonal changes. Objective Hypothesis is that increasing temperature results in reduced SARS CoV-2 transmission and may help slow the increase of cases over time. Setting Fifty representative Northern Hemisphere countries meeting specific criteria had sufficient COVID-19 case and meteorological data for analysis. Methods Regression was used to find the relationship between the log of number of COVID-19 cases and temperature over time in 50 representative countries. To summarize the day-day variability, and reduce dimensionality, we selected a robust measure, Coefficient of Time (CT), for each location. The resulting regression coefficients were then used in a multivariable regression against meteorological, country-level and demographic covariates. Results Median minimum daily temperature showed the strongest correlation with the reciprocal of CT (which can be considered as a rate associated with doubling time) for confirmed cases (adjusted R2 = 0.610, p = 1.45E-06). A similar correlation was found using median daily dewpoint, which was highly colinear with temperature, and therefore was not used in the analysis. The correlation between minimum median temperature and the rate of increase of the log of confirmed cases was 47% and 45% greater than for cases of death and recovered cases of COVID-19, respectively. This suggests the primary influence of temperature is on SARS-CoV-2 transmission more than COVID-19 morbidity. Based on the correlation between temperature and the rate of increase in COVID-19, it can be estimated that, between the range of 30 to 100 degrees Fahrenheit, a one degree increase is associated with a 1% decrease—and a one degree decrease could be associated with a 3.7% increase—in the rate of increase of the log of daily confirmed cases. This model of the effect of decreasing temperatures can only be verified over time as the pandemic proceeds through colder months. Conclusions The results suggest that boreal summer months are associated with slower rates of COVID-19 transmission, consistent with the behavior of a seasonal respiratory virus. Knowledge of COVID-19 seasonality could prove useful in local planning for phased reductions social interventions and help to prepare for the timing of possible pandemic resurgence during cooler months.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 60%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evidence and magnitude of the effects of meteorological changes on SARS-CoV-2 transmission

et al. 2021

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“…(2) A similar seasonal pattern of infections has been reported for SARS-CoV, which was prevalent mostly during winter months. (2) Despite this, there is sparse evidence on the seasonal behavior of the novel SARS-CoV-2,(3) and there are conflicting reports on how its transmission is affected by meteorological conditions. In this context, our study provides the most comprehensive and up-todate evidence for a robust and significant impact of temperature and dewpoint on SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Because SARSCoV-2 is a recently identified human pathogen, seasonal variations in its transmission have not become evident, though there is much speculation that seasonal change with the boreal summer might decrease infection rates of SARS-CoV-2 and help flatten the epidemic curve of COVID-19. (3)…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evidence and magnitude of seasonality in SARS-CoV-2 transmission: Penny wise, pandemic foolish?

Kaplin

Junker

Kumar

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Importance: Intensity and duration of the COVID-19 pandemic, and planning required to balance concerns of saving lives and avoiding economic collapse, could depend significantly on whether SARS-CoV-2 transmission is sensitive to seasonal changes. Objective: Hypothesis is that increasing temperature results in reduced SARS CoV-2 transmission and may help slow the increase of cases over time. Setting: Fifty representative Northern Hemisphere countries meeting specific criteria had sufficient COVID-19 case and meteorological data for analysis. Methods: Regression was used to find relationship between the log of number of COVID-19 cases and temperature over time in 50 representative countries. To summarize the day-day variability, and reduce dimensionality, we selected a robust measure, Coefficient of Time (CT), for each location. The resulting regression coefficients were then used in a multivariable regression against meteorological, country-level and demographic covariates. Results: Median minimum daily temperature showed the strongest correlation with the reciprocal of CT (which can be considered as a rate associated with doubling time) for confirmed cases (adjusted R2=0.610, p= 1.45E-06). A similar correlation was found using median daily dewpoint, which was highly colinear with temperature, and therefore was not used in the analysis. The correlation between minimum median temperature and the rate of increase of the log of confirmed cases was 47% and 45% greater than for cases of death and recovered cases of COVID-19, respectively. This suggests the primary influence of temperature on SARS-CoV2 transmission more than COVID-19 morbidity. Based on the correlation between temperature and the rate of increase in COVID-19, it can be estimated that, between the range of 30 to 100 degrees Fahrenheit, a one degree increase leads to a 1% decrease--and a one degree decrease leads to a 3.7% increase--in the rate of increase of the log of daily confirmed cases. Conclusion: The results suggest that boreal summer months are associated with slower rates of COVID-19 transmission, with the reverse true in winter months. Knowledge of COVID-19 seasonality could prove useful in local planning for phased reductions social interventions and help to prepare for the timing of possible pandemic resurgence during cooler months.

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“…In addition, it is still unclear whether and how SARS-CoV-2 will circulate and interact with the other seasonal human coronaviruses, in the UK and globally, and to what extent it may become seasonal (HCoV-229E, HCoV-NL63, HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1) ( Liu et al, 2020 , Shi et al, 2020 , Xie and Zhu, 2020 , Yao et al, 2020 ). Nevertheless, given the ongoing COVID-19 activities in tropical regions, it is now very unlikely that the current UK epidemic will naturally end during summer.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in England

Liu¹,

Tang²,

Lam³

2021

International Journal of Infectious Diseases

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Highlights We applied a Bayesian SEIR epidemiological model to infer the local transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 in nine regions of England. The basic reproduction number ( R 0 ) for each region was estimated, and found to be significantly correlated with the population size of each region. We estimated the temporally varying effective reproduction number ( R t ) and showed that the control measures were effective. Based on data before June 2020, our model predicted that several regions have the possibility to experience a second wave of outbreaks.

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Comparative seasonalities of influenza A, B and ‘common cold’ coronaviruses – setting the scene for SARS-CoV-2 infections and possible unexpected host immune interactions

Abstract: Comparative seasonalities of influenza A, B and 'common cold' coronaviruses-setting the scene for SARS-CoV-2 infections and possible unexpected host immune interactions

Cited by 9 publications

References 10 publications

Evidence and magnitude of the effects of meteorological changes on SARS-CoV-2 transmission

Evidence and magnitude of the effects of meteorological changes on SARS-CoV-2 transmission

Evidence and magnitude of seasonality in SARS-CoV-2 transmission: Penny wise, pandemic foolish?

Transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in England

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