Judicial strength and the rule of law are increasingly understood as vital to democratic development. Understanding the sources of strong courts, therefore, is critical, and a growing literature examines the political origins of effective judiciaries. 1 A dominant theoretical strand in this research anticipates that judicial reform is a product of rising electoral competition. That is, electoral uncertainty generates the motivations-conceptualized as material, rational-strategic incentives-required to build stronger judicial institutions. Accounts based on electoral uncertainty, however, raise unresolved puzzles of causation and prediction. Despite a broad consensus regarding the benefits of competitive politics, 2 rival causal logics underpin the effects of competition. Moreover, the incentives generated by electoral uncertainty apply to all politicians equally, thus anticipating that better institutions depend less on the ideas or identity of any given politician and arise automatically, as a quasi-mechanical side effect of competition. Further, dysfunctional institutions persist even in competitive settings; reforms frequently occur long after the start of electoral openings; and the specific content of reforms varies across similarly competitive settings, showing electoral accounts to be overly optimistic, or at least ambiguous, about their predictions regarding both the timing and content of reforms. Introducing additional complications, a core insight of a strategic bargaining account of reform anticipates that competition in previously noncompetitive settings, for example Mexico, increases the number of relevant actors, hindering policy change and inhibiting reform. 3 That is, competition might produce less reform, not more. Indeed, a motivated actor in a noncompetitive setting may have the easiest task of effectuating reform, a task that becomes more difficult as competition increases and power fragments. Electoral accounts do not anticipate this negative effect, and tell us nothing of the underlying motivations of such actors. In sum, current theories of judicial change are inconsistent and inconclusive, suffering from problems of both behavioral equivalence and indeterminacy. Rival hypotheses are in play, obfuscating causation and making predictions unclear, unstable, and even contradictory.