Comparative Study of Time Series Analysis Algorithms Suitable for Short-Term Forecasting in Implementing Demand Response Based on AMI

Abstract

This paper compares four time series forecasting algorithms—ARIMA, SARIMA, LSTM, and SVM—suitable for short-term load forecasting using Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) data. The primary focus is on evaluating the applicability and performance of these forecasting models in predicting electricity consumption patterns, which is a critical component for implementing effective demand response (DR) strategies. The study provides a comprehensive analysis of the predictive accuracy, computational efficiency, and scalability of each algorithm using a dataset of real-time electricity consumption collected from AMI systems over a designated period. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that each algorithm has distinct strengths and weaknesses depending on the characteristics of the dataset. Specifically, SVM exhibited superior performance in handling nonlinear patterns and high volatility, while SARIMA effectively captured seasonal trends. LSTM showed potential in modeling complex temporal dependencies but was sensitive to hyperparameter settings and required a substantial amount of training data. This research offers practical guidelines for selecting the optimal forecasting model based on data characteristics and application needs, contributing to the development of more efficient and dynamic energy management strategies. The findings highlight the importance of integrating advanced forecasting techniques into smart grid systems to enhance the reliability and responsiveness of DR programs. This study lays a solid foundation for future research on integrating these forecasting models into real-world AMI applications to support effective demand response and grid stability.