Comparing CMIP-3 and CMIP-5 climate projections on flooding estimation of Devils Lake of North Dakota, USA

Kharel, Gehendra; Kirilenko, Andrei

doi:10.7717/peerj.4711

Cited by 13 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…On the other hand, Kang et al [8] and others indicated increased crop production with a modest rise in average temperature of 1-3 • C, but decreasing yields above this range. From the hydrological modeling perspective, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) [11] has been used to assess quality and quantity issues [12,13] to identify critical source areas [14] and impacts on crop-yield [15,16] due to changes in climate and land uses in order to suggest improved management practices [17].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected Climate Could Increase Water Yield and Cotton Yield but Decrease Winter Wheat and Sorghum Yield in an Agricultural Watershed in Oklahoma

Gharibdousti

Kharel

Miller

et al. 2019

Water

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Climate change impacts on agricultural watersheds are highly variable and uncertain across regions. This study estimated the potential impacts of the projected precipitation and temperature based on the downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP-5) on hydrology and crop yield of a rural watershed in Oklahoma, USA. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool was used to model the watershed with 43 sub-basins and 15,217 combinations of land use, land cover, soil, and slope. The model was driven by the observed climate in the watershed and was first calibrated and validated against the monthly observed streamflow. Three statistical matrices, coefficient of determination (R 2 ), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and percentage bias (PB), were used to gauge the model performance with satisfactory values of R 2 = 0.64, NS = 0.61, and PB = +5% in the calibration period, and R 2 = 0.79, NSE = 0.62, and PB = −15% in the validation period for streamflow. The model parameterization for the yields of cotton (PB = −4.5%), grain sorghum (PB = −27.3%), and winter wheat (PB = −6.0%) resulted in an acceptable model performance. The CMIP-5 ensemble of three General Circulation Models under three Representative Concentration Pathways for the 2016-2040 period indicated an increase in both precipitation (+1.5%) and temperature (+1.8 • C) in the study area. This changed climate resulted in decreased evapotranspiration (−3.7%), increased water yield (23.9%), decreased wheat yield (−5.2%), decreased grain sorghum yield (−9.9%), and increased cotton yield (+54.2%) compared to the historical climate. The projected increase in water yield might provide opportunities for groundwater recharge and additional water to meet future water demand in the region. The projected decrease in winter wheat yield-the major crop in the state-due to climate change, may require attention for ways to mitigate these effects.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected Climate Could Increase Water Yield and Cotton Yield but Decrease Winter Wheat and Sorghum Yield in an Agricultural Watershed in Oklahoma

Gharibdousti

Kharel

Miller

et al. 2019

Water

Self Cite

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“…Climate scientists warn that future climate change is unavoidable, these climate warming trends are expected to continue or even amplify [8], and we can expect considerable alterations to atmospheric water vapor concentrations, clouds, precipitation patterns, and runoff and streamflow patterns. Changes in the intensity and distribution of precipitation events under climate change are expected to increase the intensity and frequency of flood events in different parts of the globe [9][10][11][12][13][14]. Hirabayashi et al [11] reported that 8.5 W/m 2 , respectively) expected in the year 2100 relative to pre-industrial values [38].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected Changes in Hydrological Extremes in the Yangtze River Basin with an Ensemble of Regional Climate Simulations

Yang

et al. 2018

Water

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This paper estimates the likely impacts of future climate change on streamflow, especially the hydrological extremes over the Yangtze River basin. The future climate was projected by the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment in East Asia (CORDEX-EA) initiative for the periods 2020–2049 under two representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios. The bias corrected outputs from five regional climate models (RCMs) were used in conjunction with the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrological model to produce hydrological projections. For the future climate of the Yangtze River basin, outputs from an ensemble of RCMs indicate that the annual mean temperature will increase for 2020–2049 by 1.81 °C for RCP4.5 and by 2.26 °C for RCP8.5. The annual mean precipitation is projected to increase by 3.62% under RCP4.5 and 7.65% under RCP8.5. Overall, increases in precipitation are amplified in streamflow, and the change in streamflow also shows significant temporal and spatial variations and large divergence between regional climate models. At the same time, the maximum streamflow in different durations are also projected to increase at three mainstream gauging stations based on flood frequency analysis. In particular, larger increases in maximum 1-day streamflow (+14.24% on average) compared to 5-day and 15-day water volumes (+12.79% and +10.24%) indicate that this projected extreme streamflow increase would be primarily due to intense short-period rainfall events. It is necessary to consider the impacts of climate change in future water resource management.

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“…When Devil's Lake in North Dakota, United States, floods, artificial drainage is usually used to discharge water into the adjacent river system. This strategy has drawn people's attention to the water quality and downstream floods, as well as the cross-border drainage conflicts between the United States and Canada [14,15]. The concept of integrated flood management was proposed as early as 2002.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Allocation of Flood Drainage Rights Based on the PSR Model and Pythagoras Fuzzy TOPSIS Method

Zhang

Shen

Liu

et al. 2020

IJERPH

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To minimize losses caused by flooding of areas in a river basin, flood risk management may sacrifice the interests of some areas. Because of regional differences in natural and urban conditions, rankings of the urgencies of flood drainage rights allocations in different regions are of great practical significance to the realization of optimal allocations and reduction of damages. Based on the “pressure–state–response” (PSR) framework, this study designed an index system of flood drainage rights allocations in river basins for the comprehensive consideration of the different attributes of regional societies, environments, and technologies, as well as the differences in the quality of technical management and in the levels of social and economic development. A Pythagoras fuzzy TOPSIS method was used to evaluate the urgencies and determine the management of allocations in different areas. Eight cities in Jiangsu Province in the Huai River Basin were selected as the research objects. The results showed that pressure factors played dominant roles in the degrees of urgency. Among the cities, Nantong had the highest degree, followed by Taizhou, whereas Lianyungang had the lowest. The degrees in the central region of Jiangsu were higher than in the northern region.

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Comparing CMIP-3 and CMIP-5 climate projections on flooding estimation of Devils Lake of North Dakota, USA

Cited by 13 publications

References 42 publications

Projected Climate Could Increase Water Yield and Cotton Yield but Decrease Winter Wheat and Sorghum Yield in an Agricultural Watershed in Oklahoma

Projected Climate Could Increase Water Yield and Cotton Yield but Decrease Winter Wheat and Sorghum Yield in an Agricultural Watershed in Oklahoma

Projected Changes in Hydrological Extremes in the Yangtze River Basin with an Ensemble of Regional Climate Simulations

Allocation of Flood Drainage Rights Based on the PSR Model and Pythagoras Fuzzy TOPSIS Method

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