Comparing stream-specific to generalized temperature models to guide salmonid management in a changing climate

Carlson, Andrew K.; Taylor, William W.; Hartikainen, Kelsey M.; Infante, Dana M.; Beard, T. Douglas; Lynch, Abigail J.

doi:10.1007/s11160-017-9467-0

Cited by 13 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…This added complexity of local habitat features influencing water temperature emphasizes the need to adjust air temperature projections for a given stream system (Carlson et al. 2017, 2019).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, there is a dichotomy in studies based on the temperature variable used for predicting range shifts of aquatic organisms. Some studies model range shifts with water temperature and add projected temperature increases using stream-specific adjustments, in which streams are treated as distinct units whose thermal regimes and thermal sensitivity are influenced by local-and landscape-level characteristics (Carlson et al 2017a). Other studies model range shifts by simply generalizing projected air temperature increases to water temperature (i.e., assumed uniformity between air and water temperature increases).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A major reason for this dichotomy in modeling approaches is because researchers are faced with a tradeoff between model accuracy and the logistical constraints of model development. Developing water temperature models is a time-intensive and costly process because it requires stream-specific hydrologic and landscape data, whereas air temperature requires low investment because it can be estimated from regional predictors such as latitude and elevation (Isaak and Rieman 2013, Snyder and Hitt 2015, Carlson et al 2017a. Despite increasing accessibility to stream temperature datasets, large-scale, stream-specific models remain scarce because large spatial and temporal coverage is needed to accurately quantify the variation in stream temperatures (Isaak et al 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Air temperatures over‐predict changes to stream fish assemblages with climate warming compared with water temperatures

Kirk

Rahel

2021

Ecological Applications

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Studies predicting how the distribution of aquatic organisms will shift with climate change often use projected increases in air temperature or water temperature. However, the assumed correlations between water temperature change and air temperature change can be problematic, especially for mountainous, high elevation streams. Using stream fish assemblage data from 1,442 surveys across a mountain–plains gradient (Wyoming, USA; 1990–2018), we compared the responsiveness of thermal guilds, native status groups, and assemblage structure to projected climate warming from generalized air temperature models and stream‐specific water temperature models. Air temperature models consistently predicted greater range shift differences between warm‐water and cold‐water species, with air temperatures predicting greater increases in occurrence and greater range expansions for warm‐water species. The “over‐prediction” of warm‐water species expansions resulted in air temperature models predicting higher rates of novel species combinations, greater increases in local species richness, and higher magnitudes of biotic homogenization compared with water temperature models. Despite differences in model predictions for warm‐water species, both air and water temperature models predicted that three cold‐water species would exhibit similar decreases in occurrence (decline of 1.0% and 1.8% of sites per 1°C warming, respectively) and similar range contractions (16.6 and 21.5 m elevation loss per 1°C warming, respectively). The “over‐prediction” for warm‐water species is partially attributable to water temperatures warming at slower rates than air temperatures because local, stream‐scale factors (e.g., riparian cover, groundwater inputs) buffer high elevation streams from rising air temperatures. Our study provides the first comparison of how inferences about climate‐induced biotic change at the species‐ and assemblage‐levels differ when modeling with generalized air temperatures versus stream‐specific water temperatures. We recommend that future studies use stream‐specific water temperature models, especially for mountainous, high elevation streams, to avoid the “over‐prediction” of biotic changes observed from air temperature variables.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Air temperatures over‐predict changes to stream fish assemblages with climate warming compared with water temperatures

Kirk

Rahel

2021

Ecological Applications

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“…A common theme in both marine and inland systems is that the effects of climate change on fishes are complex and often cannot be distilled into one cause and one direct effect. Temperature is often a dominant factor (see Carlson et al 2017;Henderson et al 2017;Klein et al 2017;Pratchett et al 2017), but it is not the only driving variable (see Al-Chokhachy et al 2017;Myers et al 2017;Whitney et al 2017). Also, temperature can influence fishes directly through physiological processes and indirectly through interspecific interactions (see Myers et al 2017).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In a region with substantial fish population and environmental data (e.g., stream water temperature) available, Carlson et al (2017) were able to compare two modeling approaches, generalized models and more resourceintensive stream-specific models, to forecast thermal habitat suitability for salmonids in groundwater-dominated and runoff-dominated streams. While generalized models predict groundwater-dominated thermal habitat suitability with 82% accuracy, stream-specific models are likely necessary for runoff-dominated systems where the generalized models only have 54% accuracy (Carlson et al 2017).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Editorial

Lynch

Asch

Cheung

et al. 2017

Rev Fish Biol Fisheries

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Landscape influences on thermal sensitivity and predicted spatial variability among brook trout streams in the southeastern USA

Valentine,

Lu,

Dolloff

et al. 2024

River Research & Apps

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Warming water temperatures as a result of climate change pose a major threat to coldwater organisms. However, the rate of warming is not spatially uniform due to surface‐ground‐water interactions and stream and watershed characteristics. Coldwater habitats that are most resistant to warming serve as thermal refugia and identifying their locations is critical to regional aquatic conservation planning. We quantified the thermal sensitivity of 203 streams providing current and potential habitat for brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) across nearly 1000 linear km of their native range in the southern and central Appalachian Mountains region, USA, and characterized their spatial variability with landscape variables available in the National Hydrography Dataset. Using the Bayesian framework, we calculated the maximum slope of the logistic function relating paired weekly mean air temperature and stream temperature as an index of stream thermal sensitivity. Streams differed greatly in thermal sensitivity and those with more resistant water temperature regimes (i.e., thermal refugia) were consistently characterized by southerly latitudes and groundwater input. Landscape variables derived from a principal component analysis explained 16% of the variation in thermal sensitivity, indicating that the existing landscape variables were modestly successful in explaining spatial thermal heterogeneity. Using our model and spatial interpolation, we predicted thermal sensitivity at 8695 stream segments potentially suitable for brook trout in the study region. Thermal refugia were more common southward presumably due to higher elevations, but elsewhere they were also clustered at finer spatial scales. Our analysis informs prioritizing habitat conservation and restoration of this native salmonid and other aquatic organisms that depend on coldwater habitats in a warming world.

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Comparing stream-specific to generalized temperature models to guide salmonid management in a changing climate

Cited by 13 publications

References 42 publications

Air temperatures over‐predict changes to stream fish assemblages with climate warming compared with water temperatures

Air temperatures over‐predict changes to stream fish assemblages with climate warming compared with water temperatures

Editorial

Landscape influences on thermal sensitivity and predicted spatial variability among brook trout streams in the southeastern USA

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