Comparing the Relative Probabilities of Events

Chernoff, Egan J.; Vashchyshyn, Ilona; Neufeld, Heidi

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-72871-1_16

Cited by 4 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…This research described different heuristics, such as representativeness (expecting that a small sample will have the main characteristics of the population) or availability (judging more probable events that are easy to remember). In the fallacy of composition (Chernoff et al, 2018), individuals incorrectly generalise to a whole (e.g. compound events in flipping several coins) a property of a part (equiprobability of events when flipping only a coin).…”

Section: Probabilistic Reasoning and Literacymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Previous research on teachers' probability knowledge has mainly focussed on probabilistic knowledge of specific concepts. For example, Chernoff et al (2018) described the fallacy of composition in Canadian secondary school PTs' understanding of randomness. Gómez et al (2016) and Vásquez and Alsina (2015) studied Spanish primary school PTs and Chilean in-service teachers' mathematical knowledge of the different meanings of probability, as did Ingram (2022) with secondary mathematics and science PTs.…”

Section: Teachers' Knowledge To Teach Probabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Probabilistic literacy and reasoning of prospective secondary school teachers when interpreting media news

Álvarez-Arroyo,

Batanero,

Gea

2024

ZDM Mathematics Education

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Educating students to apply probability literacy and reasoning in out-of-school contexts requires the previous preparation of teachers, which should include the assessment of their mathematical and didactic knowledge. Consequently, we investigated three research questions concerning the probabilistic reasoning and literacy of 66 prospective secondary school teachers when solving probability questions related to a report taken from the media news, their ability to identify the fundamental stochastic ideas needed to solve the task, and their capacity to predict their students’ potential difficulties. The participants needed to compute the probability of a complementary event, several conditional probabilities, and perform critical reading of the information in the report. Despite the participants’ good mathematical knowledge, a high percentage showed reasoning biases, such as the fallacy of the transposed conditional, confusion between conditioning and causation, and few identified the information missing to solve a question. There was a poor capacity to determine the stochastic ideas needed to solve the questions, beyond probability, sample space, conditional probability, and sampling. The participants quoted a few potential errors of their students, mainly conceptual mistakes with scarce recognition of interpretation errors. These results reveal the need to reinforce teachers’ probabilistic literacy, reasoning, and related didactic knowledge.

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Section: Probabilistic Reasoning and Literacymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Teachers' Knowledge To Teach Probabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic literacy and reasoning of prospective secondary school teachers when interpreting media news

Álvarez-Arroyo,

Batanero,

Gea

2024

ZDM Mathematics Education

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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The Effects of Equiprobability Bias and Representativeness Heuristics on the Performance in Probability Comparison and Calculation Tasks Among Middle School Students in China

He,

Chen

2024

Int J of Sci and Math Educ

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Teaching and learning of probability

Batanero

Álvarez-Arroyo

2023

ZDM Mathematics Education

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In this paper, we develop a personal synthesis of the most outstanding research on the teaching and learning of probability in the past years. We conducted a systematic search to examine publications on this topic in mathematics education, statistics education, education, and psychology journals. This exploration was complemented by additional studies published in conference proceedings or books. We classified these papers to highlight the main recent research tendencies in the field, according to the theme studied and considering the research objectives. Epistemological analyses suggest that informal inference based on simulation diminishes the topic abstraction but reduces probability to its frequentist view. Topics receiving particular attention include children’s probabilistic knowledge, the effect of visualizations on solving conditional probability problems, teachers’ education and probability modelling. In the final section, we recommend relevant points in which more investigation is needed to complete our knowledge about teaching and learning. In particular, we miss research on teachers’ mathematical knowledge of many probability concepts and on their didactic knowledge.

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Comparing the Relative Probabilities of Events

Cited by 4 publications

References 22 publications

Probabilistic literacy and reasoning of prospective secondary school teachers when interpreting media news

Probabilistic literacy and reasoning of prospective secondary school teachers when interpreting media news

The Effects of Equiprobability Bias and Representativeness Heuristics on the Performance in Probability Comparison and Calculation Tasks Among Middle School Students in China

Teaching and learning of probability

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