Comparing the stability of successional transient models in kelp forests and barrens (south‐east Pacific): Implications for conservation monitoring

Abstract

Ecological stability based on statistical variability was contrasted with the asymptotical local stability of transient states during successional changes in community structure in kelp forests and barren grounds. Simplified semi‐quantitative ecological models with different levels of complexity were constructed to represent transient successional states in kelp and barrens, and Routh–Hurwitz's criteria and Levins' criterion of local stability were also estimated. The results suggest that ecological stability based on statistical variation does not match local (mathematical) stability, since although successional changes in kelp exhibited less variability (measured as percentage coefficient of variation), barren beds were more locally stable. The local stability criteria used in the current work could be a suitable technique for evaluating the likelihood of transient ecological states to resist or change, since it considers states at equilibrium to maintain their properties only against small disturbances. These outcomes are relevant because the natural alternation between kelp and barrens could be disrupted by the intensive harvest of kelp species carried out over the last 10 years on the central‐north Chilean coast and in other temperate ecosystems. Additionally, the negative effects of harvesting kelp species could have a synergetic relationship with other drivers such as climate change and coastal pollution. Thus, strict policy managements to limit the kelp harvest are deeply encouraged. A monitoring programme for assessing the current conditions of benthic–pelagic ecosystems along the Chilean coast is also required.

A Community-Level Approach to Species Conservation: A Case Study of Falco naumanni in Southern Italy

“…Using this approach, which sacrificed precision for generality and realism [35,36], we circumvented many of the uncertainties (e.g., observation error and variable functional responses) that impede quantitative models [37]. Recent applications of qualitative modelling to ecological and environmental systems are found in [38][39][40][41][42].…”

Quantifying stability and resilience of eco-social keystone species complexes for coastal marine ecosystems of the Caribbean Sea and eastern Pacific: applications in conservation and monitoring programmes

“…positive, null and negative) within of stable transient states will considered as the most sensitive when faced with external disturbances. It is relevant to mention that loop models have been built to estimate the local stability and propagation of natural and anthropogenic disturbances in different biological, ecological and eco-social systems [7,8,63,[73][74][75][76][77].…”

“…Complementarily, other studies have suggested that community stability depends on temporal changes in the abundances of the species that constitute the community [59,60]. In this sense, determination of local stability (as a sensitivity analysis) could be a very useful technique to estimate the chance that ecological states persist despite being disturbed since this considers states at local equilibrium that only preserve their properties against small disturbances [61,62], allowing them to determine the possible transient states that any system could exhibit, as recently described by analysing the successional trajectories determined for kelps and barren beds in northern Chile [63].…”