Abstract:Abstract. We present a data-driven approach to assess and compare the behavior of
large-scale spatial averages of surface temperature in climate model
simulations and in observational products. We rely on univariate and
multivariate dynamic linear model (DLM) techniques to estimate both long-term
and seasonal changes in temperature. The residuals from the DLM analyses
capture the internal variability of the climate system and exhibit complex
temporal autocorrelation structure. To characterize this internal
var… Show more
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