Comparison of Bayesian and regression approaches to the study of information processing in judgment

Slovic, Paul; Lichtenstein, Sarah

doi:10.1016/0030-5073(71)90033-x

Cited by 1,597 publications

(333 citation statements)

References 199 publications

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“…To our knowledge, the only study that directly investigated this issue with quasi-experimental methods failed to find support for it (Christensen-Szalansky & Bushyhead, 1981), although the authors attributed their negative finding to possible artifacts. The Christensen-Szalansky and Bushyhead (1981)'s study used Bayes' theorem as criterion for evaluating physicians' calibration, but its nature was correlational (Slovic & Lichtenstein, 1971). Accordingly, in the present experiments we used orthogonal designs instead of intercorrelated cues that are representative of the real world.…”

Section: Main Finding: the Feature-positive Effect On The Evaluation mentioning

confidence: 99%

Missing the dog that failed to bark in the nighttime: on the overestimation of occurrences over non-occurrences in hypothesis testing

Cherubini

Rusconi

Russo

et al. 2012

Psychological Research

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In three studies, we investigated whether and to what extent the evaluation of two mutually exclusive hypotheses is affected by a feature-positive effect, wherein present clues are weighted more than absent clues. Participants (N = 126) were presented with abstract problems concerning the most likely provenance of a card that was drawn from one of two decks. We factored the correct response (the hypothesis favored by the consideration of all clues) and the ratio of present-to-absent features in each set of observations. Furthermore, across the studies, we manipulated the presentation format of the features' probabilities by providing the probability distributions of occurrences (Study 1), non-occurrences (Study 3) or both (Study 2). In all studies, both participant preference and accuracy were mostly determined by an over-reliance on present features. Moreover, across participants, both confidence in the responses and the informativeness of the present clues correlated positively with the number of responses given in line with an exclusive consideration of present features. These results were mostly independent of both the rarity of the absent clues and the presentation format. We concluded that the feature-positive effect influences hypothesis evaluation, and we discussed the implications for confirmation bias.

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Section: Main Finding: the Feature-positive Effect On The Evaluation mentioning

confidence: 99%

Missing the dog that failed to bark in the nighttime: on the overestimation of occurrences over non-occurrences in hypothesis testing

Cherubini

Rusconi

Russo

et al. 2012

Psychological Research

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“…Brehmer & Brehmer, 1988;B. Brehmer, 1994;Cooksey, 1996;Hammond et al, 1975;Libby & Lewis, 1982;Slovic & Lichtenstein, 1971). In general, achievement is high and judgments are considered to be the result of a linear, additive process in which a few, differentially weighted cues are used.…”

Section: Social Judgment Theory Policy Capturing and The Importancementioning

confidence: 99%

The Role of Representative Design in an Ecological Approach to Cognition.

Dhami¹,

Hertwig²,

Hoffrage³

2004

Psychological Bulletin

378

285

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Egon Brunswik argued that psychological processes are adapted to environmental properties. He proposed the method of representative design to capture these processes and advocated that psychology be a science of organism-environment relations. Representative design involves randomly sampling stimuli from the environment or creating stimuli in which environmental properties are preserved. This departs from systematic design. The authors review the development of representative design, examine its use in judgment and decision-making research, and demonstrate the effect of design on research findings. They suggest that some of the practical difficulties associated with representative design may be overcome with modern technologies. The importance of representative design in psychology and the implications of this method for ecological approaches to cognition are discussed.

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“…Finally, Bar-Hillel (1973), Tversky and Kahneman (1983) and others have found systematic biases in the formation of the probabilities of conjunctions of both independent and non-independent events. For surveys, discussions and examples of the psychological literature on the formation and handling of probabilities see Edwards, Lindman and Savage (1963), Slovic and Lichtenstein (1971), Tversky and Kahneman (1 974) and the collections in Acta Psychologica (December 1970), Kahneman, Slovic and Tversky (1982) and Arkes and Hammond (1986). For examples of how economists have responded to some of these issues see Arrow (1982), Viscusi (1985) and the references cited there.…”

Section: Two Issues Regarding Framingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In our 1971 article, we argued that, if the information in a gamble is processed differently when making choices and setting prices, it should be possible to construct pairs of gambles such that people would choose one member of the pair but set a higher price on the other." Slovic and Lichtenstein (1983) …”

Section: Two Interpretations Of This Phenomenonmentioning

confidence: 99%