Comparison of biological and ecological long-term trends related to northern hemisphere climate in different marine ecosystems

Kröncke, Ingrid; Neumann, Hermann; Dippner, Joachim W.; Holbrook, Sally J.; Lamy, Thomas; Miller, Robert J.; Padedda, Bachisio Mario; Pulina, Silvia; Reed, Daniel C.; Reinikainen, Marko; Satta, Cecilia Teodora; Sechi, Nicola; Soltwedel, Thomas; Suikkanen, Sanna; Lugliè, Antonella Gesuina Laura

doi:10.3897/natureconservation.34.30209

Cited by 24 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 117 publications

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“…for the North Sea benthos, which was affected by low SST in the 1980s, resulting in reduced abundances of warm-temperate species, which further dropped in abundance after an exceptionally cold winter in 1995/1996 [60][61][62]. After a biological and climate regime shift in 2000/ 2001, several studies observed a general increase in species number [43,63,64] with a consecutive increase in warmtemperate species and decrease in cold-temperate species at various trophic levels of the marine ecosystem and provided evidence on possible further climate-related shifts around 2010 [65]. By contrast, the faunal communities of other systems (e.g.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cross-continental analysis of coastal biodiversity change

Rishworth

Bird

Carrasco

et al. 2020

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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Whereas the anthropogenic impact on marine biodiversity is undebated, the quantification and prediction of this change are not trivial. Simple traditional measures of biodiversity (e.g. richness, diversity indices) do not capture the magnitude and direction of changes in species or functional composition. In this paper, we apply recently developed methods for measuring biodiversity turnover to time-series data of four broad taxonomic groups from two coastal regions: the southern North Sea (Germany) and the South African coast. Both areas share geomorphological features and ecosystem types, allowing for a critical assessment of the most informative metrics of biodiversity change across organism groups. We found little evidence for directional trends in univariate metrics of diversity for either the effective number of taxa or the amount of richness change. However, turnover in composition was high (on average nearly 30% of identities when addressing presence or absence of species) and even higher when taking the relative dominance of species into account. This turnover accumulated over time at similar rates across regions and organism groups. We conclude that biodiversity metrics responsive to turnover provide a more accurate reflection of community change relative to conventional metrics (absolute richness or relative abundance) and are spatially broadly applicable. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Integrative research perspectives on marine conservation’.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cross-continental analysis of coastal biodiversity change

Rishworth

Bird

Carrasco

et al. 2020

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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“…The third phase started with shifts around 2010–2016. While this phase is too recent to indicate a consistent ecosystem shift, plankton communities in five marine LTER ecosystems (Kröncke et al, 2019) and hypolimnetic dissolved oxygen in five of six Canadian lakes (Nelligan et al, 2019) showed a regime shift around 2010. During the third phase, a possible decrease in DO in the upper layers was observed above that explained by temperature‐dependent oxygen solubility.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ice Cover and Extreme Events Determine Dissolved Oxygen in a Placid Mountain Lake

Flaim

Andreis

Piccolroaz

et al. 2020

Water Resources Research

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A decrease in hypolimnetic dissolved oxygen (DO) is a commonly seen effect of climate change. However, in oligotrophic Lake Tovel (Italy), a deep mountain lake, annual mean DO (% saturation) has increased from near anoxia to >20% in the bottom layer (35-39 m). We analyzed long-term patterns of DO (1937-2019) using different methods (correlation and trend analysis, identification of extreme events) to link DO to drivers and indices of mixing. While spring mixing remained temporally limited, later ice-in (5.1 days decade −1) and the positive relationship between ice-in and DO the following year evidenced autumn mixing as the main driver for hypolimnetic DO increase. Extreme meteorological events also replenished hypolimnetic DO. Using DO and conductivity (1995-2019), we identified 14 deep mixing events with hypolimnetic DO > 40%. Density-based indices (Schmidt stability, relative thermal resistance, Lake Number, and Wedderburn Number) only partially captured these events that were related to snowmelt, flooding, and cold spells during spring and autumn, with a carryover effect sometimes lasting >1 year. Recently, annual mean DO in the upper layer decreased beyond temperature-dependent solubility. This decrease was not comprehensively confirmed by statistical tests but was possibly linked to atmospheric stilling. We suggest that Lake Tovel's shift from meromixis to dimixis was driven by climate warming (i.e., increasing air temperature 0.6°C decade −1) that delayed ice-in and increased autumn mixing. Our work underlines the vulnerability of mountain lakes and their different response to climate change with respect to more studied lowland lakes. Plain Language Summary Dissolved oxygen is fundamental for aquatic life. Lake Tovel (Brenta Dolomites, Italy) has a long history of limnological studies starting in the 1930s; therefore, we can study oxygen's long-term evolution. Contrary to most temperate lakes, dissolved oxygen is increasing in the deep layers of Lake Tovel since the 1990s. We linked this to later ice-in: as a consequence of climate change, Lake Tovel has lost almost 3 weeks of ice cover since the mid-1980s. This loss (5.1 days decade −1) in ice-in is much steeper than in lowland lakes. Because dissolved oxygen is replenished in lakes by mixing, a longer ice-free period means more time to mix, with oxygen reaching deeper layers. Extreme events such as heavy snowmelt, flooding, and cold spells during spring and autumn also increased mixing with effects often lasting over a year. However, in the last decade, we are beginning to see a decrease in dissolved oxygen at the surface, probably because of less wind. Years with little snow also tend to coincide with lower concentrations of dissolved oxygen in the deep layers. Changes in air temperatures, precipitation, and wind will determine the evolution of dissolved oxygen in Lake Tovel, a sentinel mid-altitude lake for climate change.

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“…Around 2010/11 single studies indicated drastic changes in the marine ecosystem [43, 89, 104]. Wernberg et al [43] found a regime shift in a tropical environment after a marine heat wave in around 2011.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Shifts in trait-based and taxonomic macrofauna community structure along a 27-year time-series in the south-eastern North Sea

Meyer

Kröncke

2019

PLoS ONE

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Current research revealed distinct changes in ecosystem functions, and thus in ecosystem stability and resilience, caused by changes in community structure and diversity loss. Benthic species play an important role in benthic-pelagic coupling, such as through the remineralization of deposited organic material, and changes to benthic community structure and diversity have associated with changes in ecosystem functioning, ecosystem stability and resilience. However, the long-term variability of traits and functions in benthic communities is largely unknown. By using abundance and bioturbation potential of macrofauna samples, taken along a transect from the German Bight towards the Dogger Bank in May 1990 and annually from 1995 to 2017, we analysed the taxonomic and trait-based macrofauna long-term community variability and diversity. Taxonomic and trait-based diversity remained stable over time, while three different regimes were found, characterised by changes in taxonomic and trait-based community structure. Min/max autocorrelation factor analysis revealed the climatic variables sea surface temperature (SST) and North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI), nitrite, and epibenthic abundance as most important environmental drivers for taxonomic and trait-based community changes.

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Comparison of biological and ecological long-term trends related to northern hemisphere climate in different marine ecosystems

Cited by 24 publications

References 117 publications

Cross-continental analysis of coastal biodiversity change

Cross-continental analysis of coastal biodiversity change

Ice Cover and Extreme Events Determine Dissolved Oxygen in a Placid Mountain Lake

Shifts in trait-based and taxonomic macrofauna community structure along a 27-year time-series in the south-eastern North Sea

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