Comparison of Climate Change Effects on Pome And Stone Fruit Phenology Between Balkan Countries and Bonn/Germany

Drkenda, P.; Musić, Osman; Maric, S.; Jevremović, D.; Radičević, S.; Hudina, M.; Hodžić, S.; Kunz, Achim; Blanke, Michael

doi:10.1007/s10341-018-0373-y

Cited by 9 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…A study of climate impact on growth and productivity of arable crops in Belgium showed significant differences in temperature before and after a change point in 1988 [28], which allowed for the comparison of weather impacts on the growing season and on sensitive phenological stages for two contrasting climatic periods. Change point analysis was also applied directly to phenology data for West Germany, Switzerland, and the Balkans [29][30][31] and suggested break points around 1988.…”

Section: Ranking Observations To Derive Past Change Signalsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparing Apple and Pear Phenology and Model Performance: What Seven Decades of Observations Reveal

Drepper

Gobin

Remy³

et al. 2020

Agronomy

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Based on observations for the beginning of the flowering stage of Malus domestica (apple) and Pyrus communis (pear) for the 1950-2018 period, phenological trends in north-eastern Belgium were investigated in function of temperatures during dormancy. Moreover, two different phenological models were adapted and evaluated. Median flowering dates of apple were on average 9.5 days earlier following warm dormancy periods, and 11.5 days for pear, but the relationship between bloom date and temperature was found not to be linear, suggesting delayed fulfilment of dormancy requirements due to increased temperatures during the chilling period. After warm chilling periods, an average delay of 5.0 and 10.6 days in the occurrence date of dormancy break was predicted by the phenological models while the PLSR reveals mixed signals regarding the beginning of flowering. Our results suggest overlapping chilling and forcing processes in a transition phase. Regarding the beginning of flowering, a dynamic chill model coupled to a growing degree days estimation yielded significantly lower prediction errors (on average 5.0 days) than a continuous chill-forcing model (6.0 days), at 99% confidence level. Model performance was sensitive to the applied parametrization method and limitations for the application of both models outside the past temperature ranges became apparent.Other weather-related hazards were several light frost nights, frequent local hailstorms, and three heatwaves in 2019, an extensive drought period for more than two months in combination with a heat wave in 2018, water excess and storms in 2016, and a devastating summer storm in 2011. The consequences of extreme weather in addition to the Russian embargo on fruit imports since 2014 led the entire Belgian fruit sector into an officially recognized crisis, to the extent that federal and regional governments are preparing policies to increase resilience in the face of more frequent extreme weather events and in the context of a changing climate in general.Therefore, a better understanding is needed of the impacts of warming on phenology in the specific case of apple and pear cultivation in Flanders. By means of adapted phenological models, variations in flowering and the related frost-sensitive stage can be estimated across temporal and spatial scales, which can support decision-making regarding (new) orchard locations and cultivar selection.Following [3], the part of the growth cycle between late summer and budburst is conceptualized as dormancy period, and can be decomposed in a sequence of paradormancy, endodormancy, and ecodormancy phases. Endodormancy, i.e., 'chilling period', is induced by lower temperatures in late fall. The moment that a species' specific exposure to cold temperatures has been fulfilled, ecodormancy is induced and the accumulation of growing degree hours becomes the determining process for further phenological development [4], i.e., 'forcing period'. From then onwards, warmer temperatures favor earlier and no longer later bloom. Insolation and tem...

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Section: Ranking Observations To Derive Past Change Signalsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparing Apple and Pear Phenology and Model Performance: What Seven Decades of Observations Reveal

Drepper

Gobin

Remy³

et al. 2020

Agronomy

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“…BAHUS-E runs started on the first day of flowering (Biologische Bundesanstalt, Bundessortenamt and Chemical industry (BBCH) 61, beginning of flowering: approximately 10% of flowers open [32]) and ended 30 days later. The time step of 20 days was selected because flowers fading and majority of petals fallen were not given for all locations, and the apple flower is known to last for 2-3 weeks in Serbian agroecological conditions [33].…”

Section: Weather-based System Designmentioning

confidence: 99%

Toward a Weather-Based Forecasting System for Fire Blight and Downy Mildew

et al. 2018

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The aim of this research is to present a weather-based forecasting system for apple fire blight (Erwinia amylovora) and downy mildew of grapevine (Plasmopara viticola) under Serbian agroecological conditions and test its efficacy. The weather-based forecasting system contains Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model outputs and a disease occurrence model. The weather forecast used is a product of the high-resolution forecast (HRES) atmospheric model by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). For disease modelling, we selected a biometeorological system for messages on the occurrence of diseases in fruits and vines (BAHUS) because it contains both diseases with well-known and tested algorithms. Several comparisons were made: (1) forecasted variables for the fifth day are compared against measurements from the agrometeorological network at seven locations for three months (March, April, and May) in the period 2012–2018 to determine forecast efficacy; (2) BAHUS runs driven with observed and forecast meteorology were compared to test the impact of forecasted meteorological data; and (3) BAHUS runs were compared with field disease observations to estimate system efficacy in plant disease forecasts. The BAHUS runs with forecasted and observed meteorology were in good agreement. The results obtained encourage further development, with the goal of fully utilizing this weather-based forecasting system.

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“…Given its fleeting appearance, understanding its timing is critical in countries like Japan and South Korea, where spring festivals are vital to the local economy [1]. A warming climate leads to earlier flowering times and poses a challenge to predictability [2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11]. Besides tourism, the sensitivity of tree phenology to rising temperatures would also have knock-on effects on crop-tree farming and land management practises [12][13][14].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Human influence increases the likelihood of extremely early cherry tree flowering in Kyoto

Christidis

Aono²,

Stott

2022

Environ. Res. Lett.

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The full flowering of Kyoto’s cherry trees in 2021 was observed on the 26th of March, the earliest date recorded in over 1200 years. An early shift of the flowering season is consistent with Kyoto’s warming climate and could have serious repercussions for the local economy. It is therefore crucial to assess how human activity impacts flowering dates and alters the likelihood of extremely early flowering. To make this assessment, our study combines a risk-based attribution methodology with a phenological model that estimates full flowering dates from daily temperature data. We employ 14 state-of-the-art climate models that provide ensembles of simulations with and without the effect of anthropogenic forcings, and, using the simulated temperatures at Kyoto, we obtain representations of the cherry flowering season under different climatic conditions. An observationally-based correction is also applied to the simulated temperatures to introduce the effect of urban warming. We find a significant anthropogenic shift in the mean flowering season of over a week, about half of which is due to urban warming. By the end of the century and under medium emissions, the early shift is estimated to further increase by almost a week. Extremely early flowering dates, as in 2021, would be rare without human influence, but are now estimated to be 15 times more likely, and are expected to occur at least once a century. Such events are projected to occur every few years by 2100 when they would no longer be considered extreme.

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Comparison of Climate Change Effects on Pome And Stone Fruit Phenology Between Balkan Countries and Bonn/Germany

Cited by 9 publications

References 4 publications

Comparing Apple and Pear Phenology and Model Performance: What Seven Decades of Observations Reveal

Comparing Apple and Pear Phenology and Model Performance: What Seven Decades of Observations Reveal

Toward a Weather-Based Forecasting System for Fire Blight and Downy Mildew

Human influence increases the likelihood of extremely early cherry tree flowering in Kyoto

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