Comparison of different statistical downscaling methods for climate change rainfall projections over the Lake Victoria basin considering CMIP3 and CMIP5

Onyutha, Charles; Tabari, Hossein; Rutkowska, Agnieszka; Nyeko-Ogiramoi, Paul; Willems, Patrick

doi:10.1016/j.jher.2016.03.001

Cited by 81 publications

(65 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…This eludes the possibility of having very high perturbation factors and consequently unrealistic future perturbed precipitation. The computations closely followed the methodology described in detail by Onyutha et al [32].…”

Section: Simplified Quantile Perturbation Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…GCM simulations cannot be used directly as input to study projected future changes on catchments since GCM data are available at coarse spatial resolution only [32]. It is, therefore, important to downscale the GCM outputs such as rainfall and temperature to remove the bias before using them to study catchment responses.…”

Section: Climate Change Rainfall Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Such ensemble approach is important as different GCMs may provide high differences in results; the GCM uncertainty hence has to be addressed [33][34][35][36]. Onyutha et al [32] evaluated the performance of different statistical downscaling techniques, which included the change factor (Delta), simplified and advanced quantile-perturbation-based approaches in the Lake Victoria Basin. The study concluded that due to the higher accuracy of the downscaling techniques in capturing monthly rainfall totals, the difference between the projected changes of seasonal or annual rainfall totals from different downscaling techniques was not significant [32].…”

Section: Climate Change Rainfall Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Onyutha et al [32] evaluated the performance of different statistical downscaling techniques, which included the change factor (Delta), simplified and advanced quantile-perturbation-based approaches in the Lake Victoria Basin. The study concluded that due to the higher accuracy of the downscaling techniques in capturing monthly rainfall totals, the difference between the projected changes of seasonal or annual rainfall totals from different downscaling techniques was not significant [32]. Therefore, for this study, the simplified quantile perturbation method was applied since the method captures the rainfall extremes and totals relatively well [32].…”

Section: Climate Change Rainfall Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The study concluded that due to the higher accuracy of the downscaling techniques in capturing monthly rainfall totals, the difference between the projected changes of seasonal or annual rainfall totals from different downscaling techniques was not significant [32]. Therefore, for this study, the simplified quantile perturbation method was applied since the method captures the rainfall extremes and totals relatively well [32].…”

Section: Climate Change Rainfall Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Effect of Climate Change on Reliability of Rainwater Harvesting Systems for Kabarole District, Uganda

Kisakye

Akurut

Bruggen

2018

Water

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This paper assesses the effect of climate change on reliability of rainwater harvesting systems for Kabarole district, Uganda, as predicted by 6 best performing global circulation models (GCMs). A daily water balance model was used to simulate the performance of a rainwater harvesting system using historical daily rainfall data for 20 years. The GCMs used to generate daily rainfall projections for 2025-2055 and 2060-2090 periods included; ACCESS1-0, BCC-CSM-1-M, CNRM-CM5, HADGEM2-CC, HADGEM2-ES and MIROC5. Analysis was based on the Ugandan weather seasons which included March, April, May (MAM) and September, October, November (SON) rain seasons in addition to December, January, February (DJF) and June, July, August (JJA) dry seasons. While an increase in reliability is predicted for the SON season, the worst-case scenario is projected during the MAM season with a reliability reduction of over 40% for the 2055-2090 period. This corresponds to a 27% reduction in water security for the same period. The DJF season is also expected to experience reduced water security by 1-8% for 2025-2055 and 2060-2090 with a 0.5 m 3 tank size. Therefore, some form of extra harvesting surface and increased tank size will be required to maintain 80% systems reliability considering climate change.

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Section: Simplified Quantile Perturbation Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Climate Change Rainfall Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Climate Change Rainfall Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Climate Change Rainfall Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Climate Change Rainfall Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Effect of Climate Change on Reliability of Rainwater Harvesting Systems for Kabarole District, Uganda

Kisakye

Akurut

Bruggen

2018

Water

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Shade trees preserve avian insectivore biodiversity on coffee farms in a warming climate

Schooler

Johnson

Njoroge³

et al. 2020

Ecology and Evolution

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African food insecurity in a changing climate: The roles of science and policy

Onyutha

2018

Food and Energy Security

Self Cite

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African population is projected to double to 2.48 billion people by 2050. The population increase poses a serious challenge of increasing food supply to meet the future demand. This challenge is compounded by climate change impacts on agriculture. In this paper, how poverty contributes to household food insecurity is explored and measures suggested to help address this challenge. To plan adaptation measures, linkages among food insecurity, poverty, and illiteracy should be considered. For the sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA), adaptation (focused on poverty alleviation) should be prioritized and preferred to mitigation. Enhancement of adaptive capacity should not only be tailored toward empowerment of women but also made highly localized to household levels. Generally, efforts could be geared toward yield gap closure, addressing challenges regarding food distribution, promoting non‐farm income‐generating activities, and unification of government priorities in agriculture and food security. Government in each country of the SSA should ensure that governance strongly embraces transparency, accountability, and integrity otherwise as it is said a fish rots from the head down. Estimates of uncertainty in predicting future climate and their implications on expenditure related to adaptation should to always be made in an integrated way and reported to support actionable policies. To increase credibility in climate prediction especially at local scales, advances toward improving climate models (for instance by refining spatiotemporal scales, enhancing models’ capacity to reproduce observed natural variability in key climatological variables like rainfall) should be made, and this requires support from the investment in climate science. Science–policy interfacing is required in planning and implementation of measures for adapting to climate change impacts. In summary, food insecurity and persistent poverty especially in the SSA should be of direct relevance and concern at a global scale. Thus, global collaboration in science is key to achieve food security in the SSA.

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Comparison of different statistical downscaling methods for climate change rainfall projections over the Lake Victoria basin considering CMIP3 and CMIP5

Cited by 81 publications

References 33 publications

Effect of Climate Change on Reliability of Rainwater Harvesting Systems for Kabarole District, Uganda

Effect of Climate Change on Reliability of Rainwater Harvesting Systems for Kabarole District, Uganda

Shade trees preserve avian insectivore biodiversity on coffee farms in a warming climate

African food insecurity in a changing climate: The roles of science and policy

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