Comparison of four modeling tools for the prediction of potential distribution for non-indigenous weeds in the United States

Magarey, Roger D.; Newton, Leslie; Hong, Soojung; Takeúchi, Yu; Christie, David; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Kohl, Lisa M.; Damus, Martin; Higgins, Steven I.; Millar, Leah C; Castro, Karen Lidia; West, Amanda M.; Hastings, John M.; Cook, Gericke; Kartesz, John; Koop, Anthony L.

doi:10.1007/s10530-017-1567-1

Cited by 17 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 61 publications

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“…Magarey et al. (2018) examined the ability of four SDMs to predict the range of six species invasive to the USA. Distribution from the native ranges was used to estimate models and the observed distribution in the USA was used to assess the models.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Predictive ability of a process‐based versus a correlative species distribution model

Higgins

Larcombe

Beeton

et al. 2020

Ecology and Evolution

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Species distribution modeling is a widely used tool in many branches of ecology and evolution. Evaluations of the transferability of species distribution models—their ability to predict the distribution of species in independent data domains—are, however, rare. In this study, we contrast the transferability of a process‐based and a correlative species distribution model. Our case study uses 664 Australian eucalypt and acacia species. We estimate models for these species using data from their native Australia and then assess whether these models can predict the adventive range of these species. We find that the correlative model—MaxEnt—has a superior ability to describe the data in the training data domain (Australia) and that the process‐based model—TTR‐SDM—has a superior ability to predict the distribution of the study species outside of Australia. The implication of this analysis, that process‐based models may be more appropriate than correlative models when making projections outside of the domain of the training data, needs to be tested in other case studies.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Magarey et al. (2018) also declined to declare a winner, due to uncertainty about the quality of the data used for calibrating and testing the models.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predictive ability of a process‐based versus a correlative species distribution model

Higgins

Larcombe

Beeton

et al. 2020

Ecology and Evolution

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“…Magarey et al . (2018) made a preliminary evaluation of its usefulness for predicting weed distributions in the United States and concluded the algorithm was probably useful. To date, however, no studies have comprehensively tested the validity of CLIMEX‐MCR or any other method for predicting species' potential distributions in New Zealand, although predictions have been made that can be followed up in the future (e.g.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…(2018), and Magarey et al . (2018) concluded that it was also useful for making preliminary predictions of weed distributions in the United States. Climate matching between E. daenerys ' main native range in Tasmania, New South Wales, Australian Capital Territory (Peixoto et al .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Why introducing a parasitoid of Paropsis charybdis Stål, 1860 (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) larvae is expected to enhance biological control of this Eucalyptus pest in New Zealand

et al. 2020

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Paropsis charybdis (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) has been a major pest of Eucalyptus spp. since invading New Zealand from Australia over 100 years ago. Here, we report on the phenology, egg parasitism and defoliation levels of P. charybdis at two Eucalyptus nitens plantations in the central North Island of New Zealand and assess the establishment prospects and potential impact of a new biological control agent, the larval parasitoid Eadya daenerys. Field monitoring found that 90–100% of first generation P. charybdis eggs emerged, showing that the existing egg parasitoids Enoggera nassaui (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) and Neopolycystus insectifurax (Hymenoptera: Pteromalidae) are ineffective at controlling this generation. Further field monitoring revealed effective control of second generation eggs by E. nassaui and N. insectifurax despite the presence of Baeoanusia albifunicle (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae), a hyperparasitoid of E. nassaui. Phenology data show that first generation P. charybdis larvae will likely be synchronous with the adult emergence of E. daenerys (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) the new larval endoparasitoid proposed to be introduced from Australia. Climate matching predicts E. daenerys could establish in all areas of New Zealand where P. charybdisimpacted Eucalyptus spp. plantations are grown. The addition of a larval endoparasitoid could significantly contribute to the suppression of P. charybdis by decreasing first generation larval survival.

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“…The central premise of this approach is that the observed distribution of a species provides useful information for the environmental requirements of that species [37]. Due to the flexibility of their data requirements and ease of use, correlative approaches are more practical over mechanistic approaches [39,40]. Lantschner et al [41] compared modelling tools in terms of correlative or mechanistic approaches from 220 publications and found that semi-mechanistic approaches were the most frequently used ones (56% of the articles).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction of the Long-Term Potential Distribution of Cryptorhynchus lapathi (L.) under Climate Change

Zhang

et al. 2019

Forests

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The poplar and willow borer, Cryptorhynchus lapathi (L.), is a severe worldwide quarantine pest that causes great economic, social, and ecological damage in Europe, North America, and Asia. CLIMEX4.0.0 was used to study the likely impact of climate change on the potential global distribution of C. lapathi based on existing (1987–2016) and predicted (2021–2040, 2041–2080, and 2081–2100) climate data. Future climate data were simulated based on global climate models from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under the RCP4.5 projection. The potential distribution of C. lapathi under historical climate conditions mainly includes North America, Africa, Europe, and Asia. Future global warming may cause a northward shift in the northern boundary of potential distribution. The total suitable area would increase by 2080–2100. Additionally, climatic suitability would change in large regions of the northern hemisphere and decrease in a small region of the southern hemisphere. The projected potential distribution will help determine the impacts of climate change and identify areas at risk of pest invasion in the future. In turn, this will help design and implement effective prevention measures for expanding pest populations, using natural enemies, microorganisms, and physical barriers in very favorable regions to impede the movement and oviposition of C. lapathi.

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Comparison of four modeling tools for the prediction of potential distribution for non-indigenous weeds in the United States

Cited by 17 publications

References 61 publications

Predictive ability of a process‐based versus a correlative species distribution model

Predictive ability of a process‐based versus a correlative species distribution model

Why introducing a parasitoid of Paropsis charybdis Stål, 1860 (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) larvae is expected to enhance biological control of this Eucalyptus pest in New Zealand

Prediction of the Long-Term Potential Distribution of Cryptorhynchus lapathi (L.) under Climate Change

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