Comparison of future and base precipitation anomalies by SimCLIM statistical projection through ensemble approach in Pakistan

Amin, Asad; Nasim, Wajid; Mubeen, Muhammad; Kazmi, Dildar Hussain; Lin, Zhaohui; Wahid, Abdul; Sultana, Syeda Refat; Gibbs, Jim; Fahad, Shah

doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2017.05.002

Cited by 40 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test used to investigate and its changes (Mann, 1945;Kendall, 1975. The Mann-Kendall test has been commonly used in numerous trend studies (Iqbal and Zahid, 2014;Amin et al, 2017;Ongoma et al, 2018a;Ali et al, 2019;Ayugi et al, 2020;Ayugi and Tan, 2019) for temporal trend analysis. MK trend does not require normal distribution in datasets to handle outliers and missing values.…”

Section: Mann-kendall Testmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Changes in Seasonal Temperature Over Pakistan in CMIP6

Karim¹,

Tan²,

Ayugi³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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The present study analyzed seasonal (i.e., Dec-Jan [DJF] and June – August [JJA]) temperature change for the near (2025-2054) and far future (2070-2099) under SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585 scenarios over Pakistan. The anomalies, Mann-Kendall trend tests, Sequential Mann-Kendall trend test (SQMK), and probability density frequency (PDF) analysis were used to investigate future mean temperature variations. The DJF season projected higher increase in temperature in the northern (3.8 oC, 5.1 oC and 6.5 oC), followed by central regions (3.8 oC, 4.9 oC and 6.4 oC) under SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. The central region is likely to record significant increase in JJA (3.0 oC, 4.4 oC and 5.4 oC) mean temperature in far future under the given SSP scenarios. Compared to historical (PDF), the far future DJF temperature changes revealed significant higher warming over northern, central and then over southern regions under most of SSP scenarios. The southern regions are projected to possible rise in far future JJA temperatures by 2.7 oC, 3.3 oC and 4.3 oC, under SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585, respectively. The PDFs for JJA further verify the highest positive abrupt shift in temperature across the central region and then southern region. The future diverse seasonal temperature changes supports further examination of the associated mechanisms and factors responsible for temperature changes to address climate change.

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Section: Mann-kendall Testmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Changes in Seasonal Temperature Over Pakistan in CMIP6

Karim¹,

Tan²,

Ayugi³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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“…Many studies providing downscaling climate projections based on RCMs as well as GCM over Pakistan have predicted an increase in future temperature while mixed trends for change in precipitation have been reported (Rasul et al, 2012;Syed et al, 2014;Kazmi et al, 2015;Mahmood et al, 2015;Ali et al, 2016;Adnan et al, 2017;Amin et al, 2017;Chaudhary, 2017;Amin et al, 2018). Syed et al (2014) using RegCM4 and PRECIS have shown that under A1B scenario 2.5-5 C increase in temperature is projected over whole South Asia with increased warming over Pakistan and the north-western parts of India.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Similarly based on Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) analysis performed by Kazmi et al (2015) by 2021-2030, 0.5-1.00 C increase is expected in minimum temperature for most parts of Pakistan and 1-2 C rise in maximum temperature is expected for northern areas and few areas located in north and west of the country. In terms of precipitation, Amin et al (2017) show a decreasing trend in premonsoon and post-monsoon precipitation for 2041-2060 based on an open framework modelling software Sim-CLIM under RCPs. Moreover, the annual trend shows 3-6% decreasing precipitation trend for projection years at all spatial scales in Pakistan.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Identifying hotspots cities vulnerable to climate change in Pakistan under CMIP5 climate projections

Ali

Kiani²,

Reboita

et al. 2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

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In this study, an ensemble of statistically downscaled 14 multi-global climate models for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios was employed to implement a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts over Pakistan in order to identify the future hotspots cities in terms of changes in temperature and precipitation. The analyses focused on the minimum, maximum and average temperature and precipitation in three time-slices: 2006-2035, 2041-2070, and 2071-2,100. Average temperature is projected to increase by 2.6 C under RCP4.5 while 5.1 C under RCP8.5 by the end of this century with the north side of Pakistan (mainly over North Pakistan-NP, Monsoon Region-MR and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa-KP) presenting the highest changes in the temperatures. Wetter conditions are expected in the future over Pakistan, mainly over the MR. In general, air temperature and precipitation showed linear positive correlation over Pakistan in both RCP scenarios. Hotspot cities where extreme climate, that is, the hottest, dryer and wetter, exists were also identified. Hyderabad will likely become the hottest city of Pakistan by end century with the highest average temperature reaching 29.9 C under RCP4.5 and 32.0 C under RCP8.5 followed by Jacobabad, Bahawalnagar, and Bahawalpur. Most of the hottest cities are detected in areas on the southern side of Pakistan. On the other hand, the wettest cities, Murree, Balakot and Muzaffarabad, are located in the MR. Dry conditions are likely to be prevalent in Dalbandin followed by Khanpur and Jacobabad under both RCPs. The uncertainties of the projections were also evaluated. For precipitation, for example, there are a large number of outliers indicating the high variability/uncertainties of the projections. These uncertainties are clearer when the probability density functions are analysed for individual sub-domains in Pakistan.

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“…All of these attributes may add uncertainties to the final resultant regional climate change information. More information regarding SimCLIM and use can be found within the literature [87,99].…”

Section: Overview and Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-Scale Hydrologic Sensitivity to Climatic and Anthropogenic Changes in Northern Morocco

et al. 2019

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Natural and human-induced impacts on water resources across the globe continue to negatively impact water resources. Characterizing the hydrologic sensitivity to climatic and anthropogenic changes is problematic given the lack of monitoring networks and global-scale model uncertainties. This study presents an integrated methodology combining satellite remote sensing (e.g., GRACE, TRMM), hydrologic modeling (e.g., SWAT), and climate projections (IPCC AR5), to evaluate the impact of climatic and man-made changes on groundwater and surface water resources. The approach was carried out on two scales: regional (Morocco) and watershed (Souss Basin, Morocco) to capture the recent climatic changes in precipitation and total water storage, examine current and projected impacts on total water resources (surface and groundwater), and investigate the link between climate change and groundwater resources. Simulated (1979–2014) potential renewable groundwater resources obtained from SWAT are ~4.3 × 108 m3/yr. GRACE data (2002–2016) indicates a decline in total water storage anomaly of ~0.019m/yr., while precipitation remains relatively constant through the same time period (2002–2016), suggesting human interactions as the major underlying cause of depleting groundwater reserves. Results highlight the need for further conservation of diminishing groundwater resources and a more complete understanding of the links and impacts of climate change on groundwater resources.

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Comparison of future and base precipitation anomalies by SimCLIM statistical projection through ensemble approach in Pakistan

Cited by 40 publications

References 49 publications

Future Changes in Seasonal Temperature Over Pakistan in CMIP6

Future Changes in Seasonal Temperature Over Pakistan in CMIP6

Identifying hotspots cities vulnerable to climate change in Pakistan under CMIP5 climate projections

Multi-Scale Hydrologic Sensitivity to Climatic and Anthropogenic Changes in Northern Morocco

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