Comparison of future runoff projections using Budyko framework and global hydrologic model: conceptual simplicity vs process complexity

Abstract

Abstract:This paper compared future runoff projections using a Budyko type equation with respect to projections by a global hydrological model (GHM). The comparison was made for the annual mean runoff projections for a future period (2060-2100) after the Budyko parameter was set based on hydrologic model outputs at a present period . The objective of this study was to investigate the performance of the Budyko equation with respect to the hydrologic model at different climate regions. To address the question this study used the spatial average of runoff for the 35 largest basins in the world. According to the comparison, the projections by the two approaches agreed well (R 2 = 0.983), in particular in humid tropic region (R 2 = 0.986), but with consistent underestimation of future runoff (Median Error, ME = -0.042) by the Budyko equation. In subarctic region the performance of the Budyko equation was low (R 2 = 0.599) due to the overestimation of future runoff (ME = 0.110). The results in the dry and temperate regions also showed some discrepancy (R 2 = 0.931 and 0.724) without apparent patterns in the errors. The paper discussed possible reasons for the errors with respect to water and energy seasonality and changes in storage component contributions.

Twenty-First Century Streamflow and Climate Change in Forest Catchments of the Central Appalachian Mountains Region, US

“…Future climate changes projected for catchments in the central Appalachian Mountains region are consistent with other studies that show increases in both P and atmospheric water demand (e.g., [42,92,93]). Changes were greater in magnitude and variability with the more severe RCP compared to the more conservative pathway with lower atmospheric CO 2 equivalents [21,23,24].…”

Understanding climate and land surface changes impact on water resources using Budyko framework and remote sensing data in Ethiopia

“…Comparative studies have shown that Budyko framework-derived methods are robust and effective in hydrological analysis (Zhan et al, 2014;Fernandez and Sayama, 2015).…”

Seasonal Changes in Water and Energy Balances over the Appalachian Region and Beyond throughout the Twenty-First Century

“…In the midlatitudes of the temperate region where the ''Appalachian Region'' (see section 2) is located, P and E P are of comparable magnitudes (Weiss and Menzel 2008;Fernandez and Sayama 2015). However, E P is directly linked to solar radiation and temperature, which are concentrated in the summer months (Coopersmith et al 2012).…”