Comparison of linear regression and artificial neural networks models to predict heating and cooling energy demand, energy consumption and CO 2  emissions

Pino‐Mejías, Rafael; Pérez-Fargallo, Alexis; Rubio-Bellido, Carlos; Pulido-Arcas, Jesús A.

doi:10.1016/j.energy.2016.12.022

Cited by 139 publications

(41 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…Their results indicated that the GWA technique can predict HL of buildings more accurately than the other models (i.e., GSGP, ANN, EMARS, SVR, MLP, and RF). Similar works for predicting HL of buildings can be found in the following literatures [22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 75%

Estimating the Heating Load of Buildings for Smart City Planning Using a Novel Artificial Intelligence Technique PSO-XGBoost

et al. 2019

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In this study, a novel technique to support smart city planning in estimating and controlling the heating load (HL) of buildings, was proposed, namely PSO-XGBoost. Accordingly, the extreme gradient boosting machine (XGBoost) was developed to estimate HL first; then, the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm was applied to optimize the performance of the XGBoost model. The classical XGBoost model, support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), Gaussian process (GP), and classification and regression trees (CART) models were also investigated and developed to predict the HL of building systems, and compared with the proposed PSO-XGBoost model; 837 investigations of buildings were considered and analyzed with many influential factors, such as glazing area distribution (GAD), glazing area (GA), orientation (O), overall height (OH), roof area (RA), wall area (WA), surface area (SA), and relative compactness (RC). Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), root-mean-squared error (RMSE), variance account for (VAF), mean absolute error (MAE), and determination coefficient (R2), were used as the statistical criteria for evaluating the performance of the above models. The color intensity, as well as the ranking method, were also used to compare and evaluate the models. The results showed that the proposed PSO-XGBoost model was the most robust technique for estimating the HL of building systems. The remaining models (i.e., XGBoost, SVM, RF, GP, and CART) yielded more mediocre performance through RMSE, MAE, R2, VAF, and MAPE metrics. Another finding of this study also indicated that OH, RA, WA, and SA were the most critical parameters for the accuracy of the proposed PSO-XGBoost model. They should be particularly interested in smart city planning as well as the optimization of smart cities.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 75%

Estimating the Heating Load of Buildings for Smart City Planning Using a Novel Artificial Intelligence Technique PSO-XGBoost

et al. 2019

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“…Moreover, ANN has emerged as an effective tool in building energy management [22,23]. Mejías et al [24] used linear regression models and artificial neural networks to estimate three concepts of heating and cooling energy demands, energy consumptions and CO 2 emissions in office buildings. They discovered that the ANN system could perform better than other models as it yields results with greater accuracy.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting Heating and Cooling Loads in Energy-Efficient Buildings Using Two Hybrid Intelligent Models

et al. 2019

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Today, energy conservation is more and more stressed as great amounts of energy are being consumed for varying applications. This study aimed to evaluate the application of two robust evolutionary algorithms, namely genetic algorithm (GA) and imperialist competition algorithm (ICA) for optimizing the weights and biases of the artificial neural network (ANN) in the estimation of heating load (HL) and cooling load (CL) of the energy-efficient residential buildings. To this end, a proper dataset was provided composed of relative compactness, surface area, wall area, roof area, overall height, orientation, glazing area, glazing area distribution, as the HL and CL influential factors. The optimal structure of each model was achieved through a trial and error process and to evaluate the accuracy of the designed networks, we used three well-known accuracy criterions. As the result of applying GA and ICA, the performance error of ANN decreased respectively by 17.92% and 23.22% for the HL, and 21.13% and 24.53% for CL in the training phase, and 20.84% and 23.74% for HL, and 27.57% and 29.10% for CL in the testing phase. The mentioned results demonstrate the superiority of the ICA-ANN model compared to GA-ANN and ANN.

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“…MLR is based on a linear statistical model without needing adjustment parameters, and this is an advantage by applying it [45]. Another advantage is understanding the existing relationship between the independent variables and the dependent variable [46].…”

Section: Mlrmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating Adaptive Setpoint Temperatures Using Weather Stations

et al. 2019

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Reducing both the energy consumption and CO2 emissions of buildings is nowadays one of the main objectives of society. The use of heating and cooling equipment is among the main causes of energy consumption. Therefore, reducing their consumption guarantees such a goal. In this context, the use of adaptive setpoint temperatures allows such energy consumption to be significantly decreased. However, having reliable data from an external temperature probe is not always possible due to various factors. This research studies the estimation of such temperatures without using external temperature probes. For this purpose, a methodology which consists of collecting data from 10 weather stations of Galicia is carried out, and prediction models (multivariable linear regression (MLR) and multilayer perceptron (MLP)) are applied based on two approaches: (1) using both the setpoint temperature and the mean daily external temperature from the previous day; and (2) using the mean daily external temperature from the previous 7 days. Both prediction models provide adequate performances for approach 1, obtaining accurate results between 1 month (MLR) and 5 months (MLP). However, for approach 2, only the MLP obtained accurate results from the 6th month. This research ensures the continuity of using adaptive setpoint temperatures even in case of possible measurement errors or failures of the external temperature probes.

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Comparison of linear regression and artificial neural networks models to predict heating and cooling energy demand, energy consumption and CO 2 emissions

Cited by 139 publications

References 32 publications

Estimating the Heating Load of Buildings for Smart City Planning Using a Novel Artificial Intelligence Technique PSO-XGBoost

Estimating the Heating Load of Buildings for Smart City Planning Using a Novel Artificial Intelligence Technique PSO-XGBoost

Predicting Heating and Cooling Loads in Energy-Efficient Buildings Using Two Hybrid Intelligent Models

Estimating Adaptive Setpoint Temperatures Using Weather Stations

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