Corrosion of carbon steel boxes filled with low‐level radioactive waste and buried within a near surface disposal facility in a humid environment was evaluated using an integrated systems approach framework. The time to hydraulic failure from initial burial to development of holes through the wall of a given waste package from pitting corrosion was calculated for four corrosion scenarios under two different corrosion cases. The two corrosion cases chosen were a constant rate of corrosion and a slowing rate of corrosion. Corrosion rates were estimated for carbon steel buried in soil from several historical studies and related to the corrosivity and aeration profile of the soil. The scenarios were chosen to represent a range of possible conditions at current and future U.S. Department of Energy disposal facilities. For each scenario, once the time to hydraulic failure had been estimated, the amount of liquid present in each waste package at the time of failure was calculated as an estimate of leachate available for subsurface transport. The Savannah River E‐Area Engineered Trench was used as a basis for the hypothetical disposal facility. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.