Comparison of Machine Learning Models in Simulating Glacier Mass Balance: Insights from Maritime and Continental Glaciers in High Mountain Asia

Abstract

Accurately simulating glacier mass balance (GMB) data is crucial for assessing the impacts of climate change on glacier dynamics. Since physical models often face challenges in comprehensively accounting for factors influencing glacial melt and uncertainties in inputs, machine learning (ML) offers a viable alternative due to its robust flexibility and nonlinear fitting capability. However, the effectiveness of ML in modeling GMB data across diverse glacier types within High Mountain Asia has not yet been thoroughly explored. This study addresses this research gap by evaluating ML models used for the simulation of annual glacier-wide GMB data, with a specific focus on comparing maritime glaciers in the Niyang River basin and continental glaciers in the Manas River basin. For this purpose, meteorological predictive factors derived from monthly ERA5-Land datasets, and topographical predictive factors obtained from the Randolph Glacier Inventory, along with target GMB data rooted in geodetic mass balance observations, were employed to drive four selective ML models: the random forest model, the gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) model, the deep neural network model, and the ordinary least-square linear regression model. The results highlighted that ML models generally exhibit superior performance in the simulation of GMB data for continental glaciers compared to maritime ones. Moreover, among the four ML models, the GBDT model was found to consistently exhibit superior performance with coefficient of determination (R2) values of 0.72 and 0.67 and root mean squared error (RMSE) values of 0.21 m w.e. and 0.30 m w.e. for glaciers within Manas and Niyang river basins, respectively. Furthermore, this study reveals that topographical and climatic factors differentially influence GMB simulations in maritime and continental glaciers, providing key insights into glacier dynamics in response to climate change. In summary, ML, particularly the GBDT model, demonstrates significant potential in GMB simulation. Moreover, the application of ML can enhance the accuracy of GMB modeling, providing a promising approach to assess the impacts of climate change on glacier dynamics.