Comparison of model estimates of the effects of aviation emissions on atmospheric ozone and methane

Olsen, S. C.; Brasseur, Guy; Wuebbles, Donald J.; Barrett, Steven R. H.; Dang, Hongyan; Eastham, Sebastian D.; Jacobson, Mark Z.; Khodayari, Arezoo; Selkirk, Henry B.; Sokolov, Andrei P.; Unger, Nadine

doi:10.1002/2013gl057660

Cited by 33 publications

(42 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…Several studies examine the impact of the aviation sector on atmospheric composition and climate (Holmes et al, 2011;Unger, 2011;Köhler et al, 2013;Olsen et al, 2013). Aviation NO x exerts a stronger impact on climate than equivalent NO x emissions from surface sources (e.g., Wild et al, 2001;Unger, 2011), and even these vary as a function of latitude, with larger impacts at lower versus higher latitudes (Köhler et al, 2013).…”

Section: Black Carbon (Bc)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Air Quality and Climate Connections

Fiore

Naik

Leibensperger

2015

Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association

399

292

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Multiple linkages connect air quality and climate change. Many air pollutant sources also emit carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), the dominant anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG). The two main contributors to non-attainment of U.S. ambient air quality standards, ozone (O 3 ) and particulate matter (PM), interact with radiation, forcing climate change. PM warms by absorbing sunlight (e.g., black carbon) or cools by scattering sunlight (e.g., sulfates) and interacts with clouds; these radiative and microphysical interactions can induce changes in precipitation and regional circulation patterns. Climate change is expected to degrade air quality in many polluted regions by changing air pollution meteorology (ventilation and dilution), precipitation and other removal processes, and by triggering some amplifying responses in atmospheric chemistry and in anthropogenic and natural sources. Together, these processes shape distributions and extreme episodes of O 3 and PM. Global modeling indicates that as air pollution programs reduce SO 2 to meet health and other air quality goals, near-term warming accelerates due to "unmasking" of warming induced by rising CO 2 . Air pollutant controls on CH 4 , a potent GHG and precursor to global O 3 levels, and on sources with high black carbon (BC) to organic carbon (OC) ratios could offset near-term warming induced by SO 2 emission reductions, while reducing global background O 3 and regionally high levels of PM. Lowering peak warming requires decreasing atmospheric CO 2 , which for some source categories would also reduce co-emitted air pollutants or their precursors. Model projections for alternative climate and air quality scenarios indicate a wide range for U.S. surface O 3 and fine PM, although regional projections may be confounded by interannual to decadal natural climate variability. Continued implementation of U.S. NO x emission controls guards against rising pollution levels triggered either by climate change or by global emission growth. Improved accuracy and trends in emission inventories are critical for accountability analyses of historical and projected air pollution and climate mitigation policies.Implications: The expansion of U.S. air pollution policy to protect climate provides an opportunity for joint mitigation, with CH 4 a prime target. BC reductions in developing nations would lower the global health burden, and for BC-rich sources (e.g., diesel) may lessen warming. Controls on these emissions could offset near-term warming induced by health-motivated reductions of sulfate (cooling). Wildfires, dust, and other natural PM and O 3 sources may increase with climate warming, posing challenges to implementing and attaining air quality standards. Accountability analyses for recent and projected air pollution and climate control strategies should underpin estimated benefits and trade-offs of future policies.

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Section: Black Carbon (Bc)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Air Quality and Climate Connections

Fiore

Naik

Leibensperger

2015

Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association

399

292

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“…The total mass of fuel burned by commercial aviation in 2006 globally is calculated to be about 188 Tg (1 Tg = 10 12 g) (Wilkerson et al 2010;Olsen et al 2013a). The resulting global emissions were approximately 594 Tg for CO 2 , 232 Tg for H 2 O, 0.812 Tg for NO x as N, 0.676 Tg for CO, and 9.8 10 7 kg for nonmethane HCs reported in methane mass units.…”

Section: The Accri Programmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…See Table 1 for more details. Figure 2 shows that the largest impact of aviation NO x emissions (Olsen et al 2013b) occurs at cruise altitude in the main flight corridors of the midlatitude Northern Hemisphere. Peak NO x perturbations are generally around 0.07 ppb and range from 0.01 ppb [the Gas, Aerosol, Transport, Radiation, General Circulation, Mesoscale, and Ocean Model (GATOR-GCMOM)] to 0.11 ppb [NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model E2 (GISS-E2)].…”

Section: Estimates Of Climate Impacts For 2006 Aviation Chemical Impmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Three emissions scenarios for 2050 were used. They correspond to 1) a "2050 baseline" scenario, which assumes a technology freeze with no operational improvements-that is, improvements are limited to those associated with a fleet refresh resulting from retirement and introduction of currently in-production aircraft (as of 2006) (ICAO 2013); 2) a "2050 S1" scenario built upon the baseline scenario while assuming a 2% increase in fuel efficiency per year through 2050, consistent with the ICAO aspirational goal of annual improvement in fuel efficiency, due to aircraft technology and operational improvements accompanied by a technology-driven progressive reduction in NO x emissions (to 67% in 2016, to 47% in 2026, to 33% in 2036, and to 20% in 2050) consistent with National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) N + 3 and N + 4 technology program goals and projections for fleet penetration; and 3) a "2050-S2" scenario that builds upon the 2050-S1 scenario and assumes the use of alternative jet fuel with zero sulfur emissions and 50% reduction in overall BC emissions.The total mass of fuel burned by commercial aviation in 2006 globally is calculated to be about 188 Tg (1 Tg = 10 12 g) (Wilkerson et al 2010;Olsen et al 2013a). The resulting global emissions were approximately 594 Tg for CO 2 , 232 Tg for H 2 O, 0.812 Tg for NO x as N, 0.676 Tg for CO, and 9.8 10 7 kg for nonmethane HCs reported in methane mass units.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impact of Aviation on Climate: FAA’s Aviation Climate Change Research Initiative (ACCRI) Phase II

Brasseur

Gupta

Anderson

et al. 2016

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

Self Cite

107

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Current and future climate impacts of aviation emissions are quantified using a combination of atmospheric models, surface and satellite observations, and laboratory experiments. IMPACT OF AVIATION ON CLIMATEFAA's Aviation Climate Change Research Initiative (ACCRI) Phase II by Guy P. brasseur, Mohan GuPta, bruce e. anderson, sathya balasubraManian, steven barrett, david duda, GreGG FleMinG, Piers M. Forster, Jan FuGlestvedt, andrew GettelMan, ranGasayi n. halthore, s. daniel Jacob, Mark Z. Jacobson, areZoo khodayari, kuo-nan liou, Marianne t. lund, richard c. Miake-lye, Patrick Minnis, seth olsen, Joyce e. Penner, ronald Prinn, ulrich schuMann, henry b. selkirk, andrei sokolov, nadine unGer, PhiliP wolFe, hsi-wu wonG, donald w. wuebbles, binGqi yi, PinG yanG, and chenG Zhou D uring the course of flight, aircraft burn fuel and emit gases and particles into the atmosphere, primarily at cruise altitudes within the upper troposphere and the lower stratosphere (UTLS).These emissions include carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), water vapor (H 2 O), hydrocarbons (HC), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NO x or NO + NO 2 ), sulfur oxides (SO x ), and nonvolatile black carbon (BC or AFFILIATIONS: brasseur-Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany, and National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado; GuPta, halthore, and Jacob-Federal Aviation Administration, Washington, d.c.; anderson and Minnis-nasa Langley Research Center, Hampton, Virginia; balasubraManian and FleMinG-Volpe Center, Department of Transportation, Cambridge, Massachusetts; barrett, Prinn, sokolov, and wolFe-Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts; dudassai/nasa Langley Research Center, Hampton, Virginia; ForsterUniversity of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; FuGlestvedt and lundcicero, Norway; GettelMan-National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado; Jacobson-Stanford University, Palo Alto, California; khodayari*, olsen, and wuebbles-University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, Illinois; liou-University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California; Miake-lye and wonG*-Aerodyne Research Inc., Billerica, Massachusetts; Penner and Zhou-University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan; The impact of these emissions on UTLS has been examined for several decades (Schumann 1994;Brasseur et al. 1998;Penner et al. 1999;Lee et al. 2009 1 Gaseous emissions of SO x and NO x evolve and partially transform into volatile nitrate and sulfate aerosols and those of gaseous HC emissions into semivolatile organic particles, which also contribute to climate change. Particles like sulfates generally have a cooling effect (negative RF) unless they coat soot particles, which exert warming effects. Note that BC particles are normally considered to be the main component of soot particles.Persistent linear contrails produced in the wake of aircraft contribute to net climate warming. Contrailinduced cirrus clouds (AIC) are also expected to affect the solar and terrestrial infrared radiative budget of the atmosphere, but t...

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“…The estimates of this impact are currently obtained using a combination of numerical models, in particular three-dimensional (3-D) Chemical Transport Models (CTMs) and 3-D or 4-D aircraft emissions inventories (Olsen et al, 2013). The 3-D or 4-D aircraft emissions inventories are customarily created using a combination of air traffic and aircraft performance data.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An aircraft performance model implementation for the estimation of global and regional commercial aviation fuel burn and emissions

Wasiuk

Lowenberg

Shallcross

2015

Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment

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a b s t r a c tEstimates of global aviation fuel burn and emissions are currently nearly 10 years out of date. Here, the development of the Aircraft Performance Model Implementation (APMI) software which is used to update global commercial aviation fuel burn and emissions estimates is described. The results from APMI are compared with published estimates obtained using the US Federal Aviation Administration's System for Assessing Aviation's Global Emissions (SAGE) for the year 2006. The number of global departures modelled with the APMI software is 8% lower compared with SAGE and reflects the difference between their commercial air traffic statistics data sources. The mission fuel burn, CO 2 and H 2 O estimates from APMI are approximately 20% lower than those predicted by SAGE for 2006 while the estimate for the total global aircraft SO x emissions is approximately 40% lower. The estimates for the emissions of CO, HC and NO x are 10%, 140% and 30% higher than those predicted by SAGE respectively. The reasons for these differences are discussed in detail.

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Comparison of model estimates of the effects of aviation emissions on atmospheric ozone and methane

Cited by 33 publications

References 38 publications

Air Quality and Climate Connections

Air Quality and Climate Connections

Impact of Aviation on Climate: FAA’s Aviation Climate Change Research Initiative (ACCRI) Phase II

An aircraft performance model implementation for the estimation of global and regional commercial aviation fuel burn and emissions

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