Comparison of neural networks and regression time series in predicting export from Czech Republic into People´s Republic of China

Krulický, Tomáš; Brabenec, Tomàš

doi:10.1051/shsconf/20207301015

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…China dominates the largest world markets (Krulicky, Brabenec, 2020). The changing oil prices as of late has arose simultaneously with a quick extension of Chinese export.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

The influence of world oil prices on the Chinese Yuan exchange rate

Vrbka¹,

Horák²,

Krulický³

2022

JESI

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This article aims to find out if and if any influence the evolution of oil price on the world market influences the value of the Chinese currency. Data, which we used for analysis, is available on the World Bank website. The analysis uses data about the Chinese Yuan (CNY) to the US Dollar (USD). The second series of data is the Brent crude oil price expressed in US Dollars per barrel. The time interval for which data will be available is the daily closing value of both variables, beginning on September 1, 2014, and ending on August 30, 2019. To accomplish our research aim, we must conduct an experiment. Therefore, the experiment assumes a uniform procedure with a gradual change of one parameter, namely the delay of the CNY / USD time series. Regression is performed using neural structures. We generate 10,000 neural networks for every single experiment combination (time delay, set of independent variables). As a result, we perform 10 calculations and get ten different outputs. From each experiment, we always preserve 5 artificial neural networks that show the best aspects. It could be estimated that fluctuations in oil prices on world markets would affect the CNY / USD price; however, it was not clear to what extent. Based on this paper, we demonstrate that such influence exists; it can be identified at an interval of 1.97% to 9.57%. This is a very significant influence, even regarding the importance of the raw material.

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“…China dominates the largest world markets (Krulicky, Brabenec, 2020). The changing oil prices as of late has arose simultaneously with a quick extension of Chinese export.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

The influence of world oil prices on the Chinese Yuan exchange rate

Vrbka¹,

Horák²,

Krulický³

2022

JESI

Self Cite

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“…Within this context, MLP networks appeared to produce better prediction results. Krulicky and Brabenec (2020) compared the possibilities of the predictions of the CR's imports to the PRC on the basis of regression analysis and ANN based on monthly data from the years 2000-2018. ANN were evaluated as more efficient in their predictions.…”

Section: Literature Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of the Accuracy of Machine Learning Predictions of the Czech Republic’s Exports to the China

Šuleř

Rowland

Krulický

2021

JRFM

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The objective of this contribution is to predict the development of the Czech Republic’s (CR) exports to the PRC (People’s Republic of China) using ANN (artificial neural networks). To meet the objective, two research questions are formulated. The questions focus on whether growth in the CR’s exports to the PRC can be expected and whether MLP (Multi-Layer Perceptron) networks are applicable for predicting the future development of the CR’s exports to the PRC. On the basis of previously obtained historical data, ANN with the best explanatory power are generated. For the purpose specified, three experiments are carried out, the results of which are described in detail. For the first, second and third experiments, ANN for predicting the development of exports are generated on the basis of a time series with a 1-month, 5-month and 10-month time delay, respectively. The generated ANN are the MLP and regression time series neural networks. The MLP turn out to be the most efficient in predicting the future development of the CR’s exports to the PRC. They are also able to predict possible extremes. It is also determined that the USA–China trade war has significantly affected the CR’s exports to the PRC.

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