In this study; experimental measurement data were performed for probability analysis. Geogrids are crucial reinforced material for civil engineering applications such as highway base/subbase reinforcement, railway ballast reinforcement and retaining walls. In this study, the cumulative distribution function was formed to estimate the probability of collapse risk of the highways. Probability density functions were calculated with the help of lognormal mean and lognormal standard deviation values of highway displacement points. The cumulative distribution functions were generalized and the probability of the damage was shown. With the results of this work; damage possibility can be estimated for any highway reinforced with geogrid which has same features such as 30x30mm, 40x40mm and 50x50mm etc.