Comparison of serum and urinary biomarker panels with albumin/creatinine ratio in the prediction of renal function decline in type 1 diabetes

Abstract

Aims/hypothesis We examined whether candidate biomarkers in serum or urine can improve the prediction of renal disease progression in type 1 diabetes beyond prior eGFR, comparing their performance with urinary albumin/creatinine ratio (ACR). Methods From the population-representative Scottish Diabetes Research Network Type 1 Bioresource (SDRNT1BIO) we sampled 50% and 25% of those with starting eGFR below and above 75 ml min −1 [1.73 m] −2 , respectively (N = 1629), and with median 5.1 years of follow-up. Multiplexed ELISAs and single molecule array technology were used to measure nine serum biomarkers and 13 urine biomarkers based on our and others' prior work using large discovery and candidate studies. Associations with final eGFR and with progression to <30 ml min −1 [1.73] m −2 , both adjusted for baseline eGFR, were tested using linear and logistic regression models. Parsimonious biomarker panels were identified using a penalised Bayesian approach, and their performance was evaluated through tenfold cross-validation and compared with using urinary ACR and other clinical record data. Results Seven serum and seven urine biomarkers were strongly associated with either final eGFR or progression to <30 ml min −1 [1.73 m] −2 , adjusting for baseline eGFR and other covariates (all at p<2.3 × 10 −3). Of these, associations of four serum biomarkers were independent of ACR for both outcomes. The strongest associations with both final eGFR and progression to <30 ml min −1 [1.73 m] −2 were for serum TNF receptor 1, kidney injury molecule 1, CD27 antigen, α-1-microglobulin and syndecan-1. These serum associations were also significant in normoalbuminuric participants for both outcomes. On top of Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (

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