Comparison of Single Exponential Smoothing, Naive Model, and SARIMA Methods for Forecasting Rainfall in Medan

Arnita, Arnita

doi:10.20956/jmsk.v17i1.10236

Cited by 3 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…40 and MAPE is 23,923 % (Figure 4.1b). If referring to Arnita, a smaller MSE shows a better model (Arnita, 2020). Then if compared between MSE of foreign (PMA) and MSE of domestic (PMDN), it is seen that the value of MSE in domestic (PMDN) investment is smaller.…”

Section: Investment Forecastingmentioning

confidence: 98%

Reviewing the Role of Investment in the West Kalimantan Border

Rahim

2023

EKU

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The development of border areas that is rampantly carried out by the government, in addition to reducing regional disparities, also improves regional economic performance as one of the efforts made by the government is through PMA (foreign direct investment) and PMDN (domestic investment). Furthermore, the role of this investment is evaluated to see the extent of its success in the area's economic performance. The study had two objectives; first, to know what variables affect the reduction of the poverty rate and increase in GDP per capita in the border area of West Kalimantan covering five districts, namely Sambas, Bengkayang, Sanggau, Sintang, and Kapuas Hulu. The independent variables used in this study are the realization of PMA and PMDN investment, the number of industries, and the absorption of labor in the industrial sector. Using secondary data for 2019-2021 and Panel Data Regression analysis, it can be seen that only employment in the industrial sector influences increasing GDP per capita and decreasing poverty rates. Meanwhile, the realization of PMA and PMDN investment, as well as the number of industries, did not significantly influence. The second objective of this study is to determine which investment is better based on the Forecasting Method. The Naive Method shows that PMDN investments have a smaller MSE value and a lower MAPE value than PMA investments. It means that PMDN investment is more feasible to be used as an option for future funding development in border areas.

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Section: Investment Forecastingmentioning

confidence: 98%

Reviewing the Role of Investment in the West Kalimantan Border

Rahim

2023

EKU

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“…Keefektifan model ini diukur dengan tren musiman selama periode waktu yang akan menjadi dasar prakiraan. ES mampu memberikan hasil akurasi yang tinggi dibandingkan dengan beberapa model timeseries seperti SARIMA dan Naïve Model [27]. Selain itu model ini menghasilkan prakiraan jangka pendek yang lebih baik dibandingkan dengan ARIMA [28].…”

Section: Pendahuluanunclassified

Perbandingan Additive dan Multiplicative Exponential Smoothing Terhadap Prakiraan Kualitas Udara di Banjarmasin

Yusuf

Kusrini

Muhammad

2022

eltikom

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Kekhawatiran kesehatan manusia adalah salah satu konsekuensi penting dari rendahnya kualitas udara. Kondisi rendahnya kualitas udara setiap kota akan memberikan dampak jangka panjang seperti terjadinya pemanasan global serta efek rumah kaca antropogenik. Masalah kualitas udara biasanya terjadi pada daerah yang berada beberapa bagian negara seperti Pulau Kalimantan. Sebagai pulau terbesar ketiga di dunia, Kalimantan dapat dikatakan sebagai paru-paru dunia seperti permasalahan kabut asap yang menyelimuti Kota Banjarmasin pada 2019. Kondisi tersebut dapat mengakibatkan tingginya penderita Infeksi Saluran Pernafasan Akut (ISPA). Pengambilan keputusan oleh pemangku kepentingan perlu dikaji secara mendalam untuk mencegah hal tersebut. Salah satu upaya yang dapat dilakukan adalah prakiraan kualitas udara yang akan terjadi. Data yang didapatkan dari BMKG Kota Banjarmasin merupakan bahan awal untuk prakiraan tersebut. Prakiraan kualitas udara akan menggunakan Triple Exponential Smoothing dengan 2 jenis pemodelan yaitu additive dan multiplicative, sehingga penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melakukan prakiraan kualitas udara di Kota Banjarmasin pada tahun 2021 dan 2022 menggunakan Additive dan Multiplicative Triple Exponential Smoothing. Pada prakiraan menggunakan metode tersebut, pembobotan pada nilai konstanta α, β, γ dapat menghasilkan nilai error yang kecil. Untuk menentukan perbandingan akurasi kedua pemodelan dilakukan dengan nilai RMSE. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa kondisi kualitas udara di Banjarmasin selama 2021 dan 2022 untuk polutan CO, O3, dan PM berada pada kategori aman untuk kesehatan manusia, sedangkan untuk polutan NO2 dan SO2 dinyatakan memiliki indeks yang tinggi sehingga kualitas udara dapat membahayakan kesehatan makhluk hidup. Secara perbandingan, pemodelan multiplicative pada prakiraan CO (α = 0.5, β = 0.001, dan γ = 0.149), NO2 (α = 0.5, β = 0.024, dan γ = 0.022), dan SO2 (α = 0.5, β = 0.001, dan γ = 0.037) memiliki akurasi tinggi dan nilai error yang kecil dibandingkan dengan pemodelan additive. Sebaliknya, pemodelan additive pada O3 (α = 0.5, β = 0.001, dan γ = 0.06) dan PM (α = 0.434, β = 0.001, dan γ = 0.213) memilik akurasi tinggi dan nilai error yang rendah dibandingkan pemodelan multiplicative. Kesimpulan yang didapatkan adalah perbedaan hasil prakiraan antara pemodelan additive dan multiplicative pada prakiraan kualitas udara di Banjarmasin karena pemodelan multiplicative digunakan apabila terdapat kecenderungan atau tanda bahwa pola musiman bergantung pada ukuran data. Dengan kata lain, pola musiman membesar seiring meningkatnya ukuran data. Sedangkan model additive digunakan jika kecenderungan tersebut tidak terjadi.

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“…Several studies related to forecasting were reviewed by Yusuf et al (2020) applied the double-moving average method to predict rice yields. Research on forecasting is also carried out by Arnita et al (2020). However, this study compared single exponential smoothing, the naïve model, and SARIMA.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting Analysis of Rice Production and Sufficiency Consumption of Rice (Oriza sativa) in Konawe District

Rianti

Bafadal

Abdi

2023

J. Ilm. Membangun Desa Pertanian

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Rice is an essential food crop because rice is still used as a staple food and is a strategic commodity in Indonesia. The availability of affordable rice for the community is one of the key factors in national security. Food crop production forecasts are needed to support government policies in overcoming food problems, especially rice in Indonesia. This study aims to determine the estimates for the amount of rice production in Konawe Regency in the future by using the Least Squares method, knowing the adequacy of rice in Konawe Regency. This research was conducted in Konawe Regency, Southeast Sulawesi, from May to December 2021. The data source used in this study was secondary data obtained from the Southeast Sulawesi Central Statistics Agency (BPS) and the Agriculture Service. Data on the rice production in Konawe Regency for the 2000-2020 period. From the simulations carried out using the Least Squares model, it is obtained that the forecasting results of rice production in Konawe Regency will continue to increase from year to year for the next ten years (2021-2030). The average increase in rice production in the next ten years is 1.60% per year, with the Konawe Regency rice consumption need in 2020 of 49,594.08 tons. Based on rice production and demand, the total availability of rice in Konawe Regency in 2021 is 74,585.5 tons, indicating a status of surplus rice availability. Determination of the accuracy of forecasting rice production in Konawe Regency is calculated using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) which produces a relatively small error value of 1.3%.

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Comparison of Single Exponential Smoothing, Naive Model, and SARIMA Methods for Forecasting Rainfall in Medan

Cited by 3 publications

References 5 publications

Reviewing the Role of Investment in the West Kalimantan Border

Reviewing the Role of Investment in the West Kalimantan Border

Perbandingan Additive dan Multiplicative Exponential Smoothing Terhadap Prakiraan Kualitas Udara di Banjarmasin

Forecasting Analysis of Rice Production and Sufficiency Consumption of Rice (Oriza sativa) in Konawe District

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