Comparison of successful offensive sequences in the group stage of 2018 FIFA World Cup: eliminated vs. qualified teams

Almeida, Carlos H.

doi:10.1080/24733938.2019.1613557

Cited by 10 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…However, the current study also found that short passes were also the one that most distinguished win and loss in build-up plays leading to goals scored. This is in line with the available literature showing passing as a key skill underlying successful performance in football [25]. Surprisingly, a negative effect was found with respect to crosses.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

A dynamic online nomogram to predict match outcome in the UEFA Champions League: more than meets the eye

Zhang

Hu²,

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Background Recently, the application of interdisciplinary research methods to sports performance analysis has become a clear trend. These methods can enhance analytical techniques and provide a deeper understanding of the matching outcome.Purpose This study aimed to develop and validate a predictive model to predict match outcomes by transferring an analytical technique common to modern medicine to sports performance analysis. We would like to identify whether interdisciplinary research methods are applicable to predicting match outcomes based on historical data and what factors may affect match outcomesMethods A nomogram was generated based on lasso-logistic regression analysis to identify the potential predictors associated with match outcomes. The predictive model was built based on a nomogram, and its performance was evaluated for discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility.Results The nomogram is an effective tool for predicting match outcomes in elite soccer, owing to its higher overall performance, discrimination, and calibration of the current model. Meanwhile, the current predictive model also highlights that counterattacks, shots on target, long balls, short passes, and fouls are positively associated with match outcomes, whereas crosses and yellow cards are negatively associated with match outcomes in the UEFA champion league. A nomogram with these variables had good predictive accuracy (Brier score: 0.21, calibration slope: 1.05, c-index: 0.84)Conclusion The nomogram model showed a good predictive accuracy and discriminatory ability. The current predictive model also highlighted that counterattacks, shots on target, long balls, short passes, and fouls are positively associated with match outcomes whereas crosses and yellow cards are negatively associated with match outcomes in elite soccer. Therefore, a nomogram may be an effective tool for analyzing soccer matches. More visualization of predicting match outcome can be checked on this website (https://athletic-performance-and-data-science-lab.shinyapps.io/DynNomapp/)

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

A dynamic online nomogram to predict match outcome in the UEFA Champions League: more than meets the eye

Zhang

Hu²,

et al. 2023

Preprint

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“…10–12 According to our understanding, it represents a small evidence of modern times, in which “dead-ball situations” have become increasingly decisive for succeeding in professional football. 1,17,31 Recently, Haugen 13 suspected the introduction of VAR would increase the number of penalties and goals scored from these set plays; however, Lago-Peñas et al 14 refuted that assumption by comparing several variables before and after the implementation of VAR in the Italian Serie A and the German Bundesliga. Our results suggest that more research is needed to clarify the impact of VAR on the number of penalty kicks awarded and goals scored from the 11-metre mark in other domestic and international club competitions.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multifactorial analysis of football penalty kicks in the Portuguese First League: A replication study

Almeida

Volossovitch

2022

International Journal of Sports Science & Coaching

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Although penalty-kick outcomes in football are thought to be affected by different factors, many of them have not been sufficiently analysed yet. This study sought to replicate and extend the findings of a previous multifactorial analysis of penalty kicks in Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) club competitions. For that purpose, we used a larger sample ( n = 833), collected from eight consecutive seasons of the Portuguese First League (from 2013–2014 to 2020–2021) and adding the variables season, team quality and the penalty taker's playing status (starter or substitute) to the analysis. Chi-square tests of independence only showed significant associations of performance-related factors ( shot horizontal and vertical directions, and goalkeeper's action) with penalty-kick outcome. Multinomial logistic regression model revealed significant increases in the odds of penalty kicks being saved when (1) shots were directed to the centre-left zones compared to the right zones (penalty taker's perspective), (2) shots were directed to the low zones of the goal and (3) goalkeepers dived to the correct side of the ball. In addition, the probability of missing the target or hitting the goalpost/crossbar significantly increased when shots aimed the high zones of the goal. Noteworthy, the risk of a penalty being saved when the shot was directed to the bottom zones of the goal outweighed the “miss factor” of shooting high. These findings enable coaches to develop optimal strategies for taking and saving penalty kicks, thus increasing the likelihood of both players to succeed in competitive matches, regardless of individual attributes and/or casual competitive circumstances.

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“…On the tactical side, coaches should be aware of the significance of counterattacks especially when playing against stronger opponents. The play against an imbalanced defense can lead to more scoring opportunities especially if played at a faster pace (Almeida, 2019 ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Success Factors in the FIFA 2018 World Cup in Russia and FIFA 2014 World Cup in Brazil

2021

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Research on success factors in football focusing on national teams is sparse. The current study examines the success factors during the World Cup 2018 in Russia and the World Cup 2014 in Brazil. A total of 128 matches were analyzed using a generalized order logit approach. Twenty-nine variables were identified from previous research. The results showed that defensive errors (p = 0.0220), goal efficiency (p = 0.0000), duel success (p = 0.0000), tackles success (p = 0.0100), shots from counterattacks (p = 0.0460), clearances (p = 0.0130), and crosses (p = 0.0160) have a significant influence on winning a match during those tournaments. Ball possession, distance, and market value of the teams had no influence on success. Overall, most of the critical success factors and those with the highest impact on winning close games were defensive actions. Moreover, the results suggest that direct play and pressing were more effective than ball possession play. The study contributes to a better understanding of success factors and can help to improve effectiveness of training, match preparation, and coaching.

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Comparison of successful offensive sequences in the group stage of 2018 FIFA World Cup: eliminated vs. qualified teams

Cited by 10 publications

References 28 publications

A dynamic online nomogram to predict match outcome in the UEFA Champions League: more than meets the eye

A dynamic online nomogram to predict match outcome in the UEFA Champions League: more than meets the eye

Multifactorial analysis of football penalty kicks in the Portuguese First League: A replication study

Success Factors in the FIFA 2018 World Cup in Russia and FIFA 2014 World Cup in Brazil

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