Comparison of the Impact of Different Economic Patterns on Population Inflows: Evidence from China’s Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang Provinces

Abstract

Between 2000 and 2022, China’s top three highest GDP provinces, Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu, each having distinct economic structures, displayed different paths of development in their net population inflows. This prompts us to ponder how the economic patterns of the most economically developed regions impact population inflows. To answer the question, we first examine each economic pattern and use the entropy weight method to construct a comprehensive index to capture the features of each economic pattern in different regions. Then, we employ a two-way fixed effects model with panel data from the three provinces to conduct the empirical analysis. Moving forward, we expand the sample size to 10 provinces, including China’s eastern metropolitan areas, to extend the analysis beyond the previously selected regions and corroborate the consistency and robustness of our model. The results show that the Wenzhou pattern, featured primarily by the private sector, has the most impact on population inflows, followed by the Pearl River pattern, driven by an export-oriented economy. In contrast, the Sunan pattern, characterized by the collective economy, has an insignificant impact. We further dissect and determine the essential factors influencing population inflows within the three economic patterns and estimate the sustainability of the economic pattern via net population inflows. Our findings can provide insights for policy-makers to understand and utilize economic patterns in order to impact population inflows effectively. Specifically, we propose that the observable net population inflows can serve as an indicator to evaluate the sustainability of local economic patterns, thus providing another perspective on assessing the region’s economic development.