Comparison of the performances of land use regression modelling and dispersion modelling in estimating small-scale variations in long-term air pollution concentrations in a Dutch urban area

Beelen, Rob; Voogt, M.H.; Duyzer, J.H.; Zandveld, P.Y.J.; Hoek, Gerard

doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2010.08.005

Cited by 89 publications

(73 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…A comparison of modeling methods using a large Dutch cohort concluded that dispersion models performed favorably compared with land use regression (44). We have previously applied these models in cross-sectional analyses of national English health survey data (45) and they have been used extensively by the UK Government for reporting to the European Commission (25) and for policy purposes including burden estimation (26).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mortality Associations with Long-Term Exposure to Outdoor Air Pollution in a National English Cohort

Carey

Atkinson

Kent

et al. 2013

Am J Respir Crit Care Med

267

172

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Rationale: Cohort evidence linking long-term exposure to outdoor particulate air pollution and mortality has come largely from the United States. There is relatively little evidence from nationally representative cohorts in other countries. Objectives: To investigate the relationship between long-term exposure to a range of pollutants and causes of death in a national English cohort. Methods: A total of 835,607 patients aged 40-89 years registered with 205 general practices were followed from [2003][2004][2005][2006][2007]. Annual average concentrations in 2002 for particulate matter with a median aerodynamic diameter less than 10 (PM 10 ) and less than 2.5 mm (PM 2.5 ), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), ozone, and sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) at 1 km 2 resolution, estimated from emission-based models, were linked to residential postcode. Deaths (n ¼ 83,103) were ascertained from linkage to death certificates, and hazard ratios (HRs) for all-and cause-specific mortality for pollutants were estimated for interquartile pollutant changes from Cox models adjusting for age, sex, smoking, body mass index, and area-level socioeconomic status markers. Measurements and Main Results:Residential concentrations of all pollutants except ozone were positively associated with all-cause mortality (HR, 1.02, 1.03, and 1.04 for PM 2.5 , NO 2 , and SO 2 , respectively). Associations for PM 2.5 , NO 2 , and SO 2 were larger for respiratory deaths (HR, 1.09 each) and lung cancer (HR, 1.02, 1.06, and 1.05) but nearer unity for cardiovascular deaths (1.00, 1.00, and 1.04). Conclusions: These results strengthen the evidence linking long-term ambient air pollution exposure to increased all-cause mortality. However, the stronger associations with respiratory mortality are not consistent with most US studies in which associations with cardiovascular causes of death tend to predominate.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mortality Associations with Long-Term Exposure to Outdoor Air Pollution in a National English Cohort

Carey

Atkinson

Kent

et al. 2013

Am J Respir Crit Care Med

267

172

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Therefore we investigated its significance for the health of the residents along the 80/h km zone in Rotterdam. With the URBIS model [2], we calculated the difference in EC concentrations with and without the 80 km/h speed limit for the existing 80 km/h zone in Rotterdam and for the whole ring road around Rotterdam. The result of this calculation for 2008 is shown in Figure 4.…”

Section: Modelling Exercisementioning

confidence: 99%

Elemental carbon as an indicator to monitor the effectiveness of traffic related measures on local air quality

Voogt

Eijk

Keuken

et al. 2011

WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environment

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Even when European standards on air quality are met, health effects occur near busy roads because of the increased exposure to tailpipe emissions. For a proper assessment of these effects, an additional indicator is available: elemental carbon (EC). This is a sensitive indicator for particulate matter from combustion emissions by road traffic. Currently, the concentrations of EC along busy roads are still significantly increased relative to the background, in contrast to PM 10 and PM 2.5 . Therefore, the effectiveness of traffic measures on local air quality and associated health effects can be better assessed with EC than with PM mass. This paper discusses the relevance of EC as an indicator in the assessment of air quality and health. This is illustrated with two pilot studies in the Dutch cities of Arnhem and Helmond where traffic measures were evaluated with EC measurements. Also model calculations of the effect of 80 km/h speed limit zones on Dutch motorways on the health risks of local residents are presented. It is concluded that the assessment of EC through monitoring and/or modelling is a powerful policy instrument to analyse the impact of local traffic measures on air quality and health. Typically, people living close to busy road transport may live 1 to 6 months longer when measures like enhancing traffic flow, speed limiting and environmental zoning are implemented.

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“…While some studies suggested that LUR models explained small-scale variations in air pollution concentrations as well or even better than various dispersion models [8][9][10], Beelen et al [11] showed that the dispersion models performed better than LUR models regarding monitored and modeled concentrations on several validation sites. Most recently, de Hoogh et al [12] investigated agreement between LUR and DM modeling approaches aiming to estimate residential exposure to NO 2 and particulate matter (PM) with an aerodynamic diameter ď10 µm and ď2.5 µm (PM 10 , PM 2.5 ) within the European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of Land-Use Regression Modeling with Dispersion and Chemistry Transport Modeling to Assign Air Pollution Concentrations within the Ruhr Area

et al. 2016

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Abstract:Two commonly used models to assess air pollution concentration for investigating health effects of air pollution in epidemiological studies are Land Use Regression (LUR) models and Dispersion and Chemistry Transport Models (DCTM). Both modeling approaches have been applied in the Ruhr area, Germany, a location where multiple cohort studies are being conducted. Application of these different modelling approaches leads to differences in exposure estimation and interpretation due to the specific characteristics of each model. We aimed to compare both model approaches by means of their respective aims, modeling characteristics, validation, temporal and spatial resolution, and agreement of residential exposure estimation, referring to the air pollutants PM 2.5 , PM 10 , and NO 2 . Residential exposure referred to air pollution exposure at residences of participants of the Heinz Nixdorf Recall Study, located in the Ruhr area. The point-specific ESCAPE (European Study of Cohorts on Air Pollution Effects)-LUR aims to temporally estimate stable long-term exposure to local, mostly traffic-related air pollution with respect to very small-scale spatial variations (ď100 m). In contrast, the EURAD (European Air Pollution Dispersion)-CTM aims to estimate a time-varying average air pollutant concentration in a small area (i.e., 1 km 2 ), taking into account a range of major sources, e.g., traffic, industry, meteorological conditions, and transport. Overall agreement between EURAD-CTM and ESCAPE-LUR was weak to moderate on a residential basis. Restricting EURAD-CTM to sources of local traffic only, respective agreement was good. The possibility of combining the strengths of both applications will be the next step to enhance exposure assessment.

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Comparison of the performances of land use regression modelling and dispersion modelling in estimating small-scale variations in long-term air pollution concentrations in a Dutch urban area

Cited by 89 publications

References 19 publications

Mortality Associations with Long-Term Exposure to Outdoor Air Pollution in a National English Cohort

Mortality Associations with Long-Term Exposure to Outdoor Air Pollution in a National English Cohort

Elemental carbon as an indicator to monitor the effectiveness of traffic related measures on local air quality

Comparison of Land-Use Regression Modeling with Dispersion and Chemistry Transport Modeling to Assign Air Pollution Concentrations within the Ruhr Area

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