Comparison of Traditional and Newly Developed Thunderstorm Indices for Switzerland

Huntrieser, H.; Schiesser, Hans-Heinrich; Schmid, Willy A.; Waldvogel, A.

doi:10.1175/1520-0434(1997)012<0108:cotand>2.0.co;2

Cited by 126 publications

(90 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…These so-called convective parameters and indices reflect the potential for thunderstorm development according to the prevailing properties of the air mass. In many studies, the efficiency of the various indices derived from the observed vertical profiles for thunderstorm prediction was investigated, for example by Schulz (1989), Lee and Passner (1993), Fuelberg and Biggar (1994), Huntrieser et al (1997), Haklander and Van Delden (2003), and Manzato (2005). However, little attention has been paid so far to the index-based prediction of severe thunderstorms.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The skill of convective parameters and indices to predict isolated and severe thunderstorms

Kunz¹

2007

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

165

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Abstract. The preconvective environment on days with ordinary, widespread, and severe thunderstorms in Southwest Germany was investigated. Various thermodynamic and kinetic parameters calculated from radiosoundings at 12:00 UTC were verified against subsequent thunderstorm observations derived from SYNOP station data, radar data, and damage reports of a building insurance company. The skill of the convective parameters and indices to predict thunderstorms was evaluated by means of probability distribution functions, probabilities of thunderstorms according to an index threshold, and skill scores like the Heidke Skill Score (HSS) that are based on categorical verification.For the ordinary decision as to whether a thunderstorm day was expected or not, the best results were obtained with the original Lifted Index (80% prediction probability for LI≤−1.73; HSS=0.57 for LI≤1.76), the Showalter Index, and the modified K-Index. Considering days with isolated compared to widespread thunderstorms, the best performance is reached by the Deep Convective Index. For days with severe thunderstorms that caused damage due to hail, local storms or floods, the best prediction skill is found again for the Lifted Index and the Deep Convective Index, but also for the Potential Instability Index, the Delta-θ e Index, and a version of the CAPE, where the lifting profile is determined by averaging over the lowest 100 hPa.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The skill of convective parameters and indices to predict isolated and severe thunderstorms

Kunz¹

2007

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

165

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“…An instability metric which has demonstrated a high degree of success is the Total Totals (TT) index as described by Huntrieser et al (1996), and which is defined as shown in Equation (9):…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…) The value of HI depends on the differences between the atmospheric temperature and dew point temperature for pressure levels corresponding to 850, 700 and 500 hPa and was described with added detail by Huntrieser et al (1996). There exist many more indices for weather forecasting that have been widely investigated and described in the meteorological literature (Bidner, 1970;Andersson et al, 1989;Collier, 1994).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Chrysoulakis et al (2003) used data generated from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiameter (MODIS) to assess atmospheric instability. Three wellknown indices were computed based on radiosonde data and satellite derived atmospheric products, namely the K-Index (KI), the Boyden Index (BI) and (LI) (Huntrieser et al, 1996). In another study by Ma et al (1999), the LI was calculated from entire temperature and humidity profiles which were determined from selected measured brightness temperatures by using an inversion process.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The development of a shape factor instability index to guide severe weather forecasts for aviation safety

Walker

Chakrapani

Elmahboub

2008

Meteorological Applications

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An instability index, called the shape factor (SF), for weather forecasting was proposed using temperature profiles from a NASA/LaRC-hosted web-page featuring NOAA Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) radiosonde data used for short-term weather predictions. The index of instability was predicated on the sign and magnitude of the gradient of the equivalent potential temperature. A training data set of temperature profiles was obtained for both clear and severe weather conditions and the SF index was computed. The data showed marked differences in the magnitudes of the shape factors for the two weather conditions. Calculations of SF were compared with the several well-established instability indices and there appeared marked agreement between the SF and these other metrics. It is being proposed that this new index could be used as a parameter for input to statistical weather forecasting models to enhance overall aviation safety and air traffic management efficiency. Of particular relevance is the fact that more comprehensive results can be garnered since the SF index is calculated from the entire temperature profile and not just from selected temperatures as is the case for other indices of instability.

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“…The static stability indices constitute a measure of atmospheric stability and they have been presented, tested and compared by many researchers (see, e.g. Jacovides and Yonetani, 1990;Huntrieser et al, 1997). Some of the widely used static stability indices are the following (1) the K-index estimates static stability as a combination of 850-500 hPa thermal lapse rate, 850 hPa moisture and a measure of thickness of moist layer (Reap and Foster, 1979) (2) the Humidity Index assesses the degree of saturation in 850, 700 and 500 hPa levels (Litynska et al, 1976) (3) the Potential Wet-Bulb Index assesses the potential instability of 850-500 hPa cloud layer (Pickup, 1982) (4) the Yonetani Index is a combination of 900-850 hPa and 850-500 hPa lapse rates and a measure of the mean relative humidity of the 900-850 hPa layer (Jacovides and Yonetani, 1990) (5) and, finally, the Showalter Index assesses the potential instability of an hypothetical 850-500 hPa cloud layer (Showalter, 1953).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climatic features of atmospheric stability in the Mediterranean region (1948–2006): spatial modes, inter‐monthly and inter‐annual variability

Lolis

2007

Meteorological Applications

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ABSTRACT:The predominant spatial modes of atmospheric stability over the Mediterranean region are revealed by applying factor analysis and cluster analysis on the daily 2.5°× 2.5°grid point values of K-index for the period 1948-2006. At first, S-mode factor analysis is applied on the K-index time series in order to reduce the dimensionality of the data set. The k-means cluster analysis is then applied to the factor scores time series, and the days are classified into 12 clusters with distinct and characteristic spatial distributions of the K-index. The 12 spatial modes revealed are associated with the prevailing atmospheric circulation types and/or the thermal and humidity characteristics of the lower and the middle troposphere. The inter-monthly variations of their frequency reveal the seasonal factors that contribute to their predominance. The seasonality of the 12 clusters shows that three of them prevail mainly in winter, three of them prevail mainly in summer, and the other six clusters present a relatively even seasonal distribution. The inter-annual variations of their frequency exhibit considerable long-term changes, providing also some possible indications of the oncoming climatic change. The continuous decrease of the typical high instability pattern of late spring and early summer and the recent increase of one of the typical high instability winter patterns provide some useful information about climate variability in the Mediterranean.

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Comparison of Traditional and Newly Developed Thunderstorm Indices for Switzerland

Cited by 126 publications

References 39 publications

The skill of convective parameters and indices to predict isolated and severe thunderstorms

The skill of convective parameters and indices to predict isolated and severe thunderstorms

The development of a shape factor instability index to guide severe weather forecasts for aviation safety

Climatic features of atmospheric stability in the Mediterranean region (1948–2006): spatial modes, inter‐monthly and inter‐annual variability

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