Comparison of two model approaches in the Zambezi river basin with regard to model reliability and identifiability

Winsemius, Hessel; Savenije, H. H. G.; Gerrits, A. M. J.; Zapreeva, E. A.; Klees, R.

doi:10.5194/hess-10-339-2006

Cited by 69 publications

(49 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…The STREAM model in the PcRaster environment allows the inclusion of spatially variable information, like ET a and soil moisture, in the model. Furthermore, STREAM model is an open source model which has been applied successfully in other data-limited river basins, especially in Africa (Gerrits, 2005;Winsemius et al, 2006;Abwoga, 2012;Bashange, 2013).…”

Section: Model Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Winsemius et al (2006) showed that the soil moisture variations from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) could provide useful information to infer and constrain hydrological model parameters in the Zambezi River basin. Campo et al (2006), using an algorithm developed by Nelder and Mead (1965), used remotely sensing soil moisture information to calibrate a distributed hydrological model in the Arno Basin, Italy.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modelling stream flow and quantifying blue water using a modified STREAM model for a heterogeneous, highly utilized and data-scarce river basin in Africa

Kiptala

Mul

Mohamed

et al. 2014

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Integrated water resources management is a combination of managing blue and green water resources. Often the main focus is on the blue water resources, as information on spatially distributed evaporative water use is not as readily available as the link to river flows. Physically based, spatially distributed models are often used to generate this kind of information. These models require enormous amounts of data, which can result in equifinality, making them less suitable for scenario analyses. Furthermore, hydrological models often focus on natural processes and fail to account for anthropogenic influences. This study presents a spatially distributed hydrological model that has been developed for a heterogeneous, highly utilized and data-scarce river basin in eastern Africa. Using an innovative approach, remote-sensingderived evapotranspiration and soil moisture variables for 3 years were incorporated as input data into the Spatial Tools for River basin Environmental Analysis and Management (STREAM) model. To cater for the extensive irrigation water application, an additional blue water component (Q b ) was incorporated in the STREAM model to quantify irrigation water use. To enhance model parameter identification and calibration, three hydrological landscapes (wetlands, hillslope and snowmelt) were identified using field data. The model was calibrated against discharge data from five gauging stations and showed good performance, especially in the simulation of low flows, where the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of the natural logarithm (E ns_ln ) of discharge were greater than 0.6 in both calibration and validation periods. At the outlet, the E ns_ln coefficient was even higher (0.90). During low flows, Q b consumed nearly 50 % of the river flow in the basin. The Q b model result for irrigation was comparable to the field-based net irrigation estimates, with less than 20 % difference. These results show the great potential of developing spatially distributed models that can account for supplementary water use. Such information is important for water resources planning and management in heavily utilized catchment areas. Model flexibility offers the opportunity for continuous model improvement when more data become available.

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Section: Model Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling stream flow and quantifying blue water using a modified STREAM model for a heterogeneous, highly utilized and data-scarce river basin in Africa

Kiptala

Mul

Mohamed

et al. 2014

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The STREAM model has been successfully applied in various climate and hydrological studies (e.g. Bouwer et al, 2006;Winsemius et al, 2006), which have shown that a monthly time step is sufficient for detecting decadal, inter-annual and seasonal hydrological cycles.…”

Section: Hydrological Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial linkages between coral proxies of terrestrial runoff across a large embayment in Madagascar

et al. 2012

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Abstract. Coral cores provide vital climate reconstructions for site-specific temporal variability in river flow and sediment load. Yet, their ability to record spatial differences across multiple catchments is relatively unknown. Here, we investigate spatial linkages between four coral proxies of terrestrial runoff and their relationships between sites. Coral cores were drilled in and around Antongil Bay, the largest bay in Madagascar, and individually analysed for fifteen years of continuous luminescence (G / B), Ba / Ca, δ 18 O sw and δ 13 C data. Each coral core was drilled close to individual river mouths (≤ 7 km), and proxy data were compared to modelled river discharge and sediment runoff data for the three corresponding catchments. A reasonable agreement between terrestrial runoff proxies with modelled river discharge and sediment yield was observed. Some inconsistencies between proxy and modelled data are likely linked to proxy behaviour, watershed size and local environmental physiochemical parameters. In general, the further a coral resided from its river source, the weaker the proxy relationship was with modelled data and other corals, due to mixing gradients and currents. Nevertheless, we demonstrate that two coral Ba / Ca and luminescence (G / B) records influenced by the same watershed are reproducible. Furthermore, a strong Ba / Ca relationship was observed between two cores from distant watersheds, with baseline averages in agreement with modelled sediment runoff data. As humic acids behave conservatively in the water column, luminescence (G / B) data gave the highest regional correlations between cores, and showed the most consistent relationship with site specific modelled discharge. No statistical relationship was observed between cores in terms of interannual δ 18 O sw and δ 13 C, meaning corals were recording a localised signal at their respective sites, confounded by vital effects. Comparing proxy baseline averages and mean seasonal cycles provided a good overview of the runoff dynamics of the bay system.

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“…In this context, inspecting posterior parameter distributions conditioned on calibration data may give us some insights into model reliability (Winsemius, et al, 2006). For the behavioural parameter sets obtained from calibration based on river width (RMSE < 60 m) and river discharge (NashSutcliffe efficiency >0.75), their likelihood values versus parameter values of the HYMOD are plotted in Fig.…”

Section: Posterior Parameter Distributionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Towards improving river discharge estimation in ungauged basins: calibration of rainfall-runoff models based on satellite observations of river flow width at basin outlet

Sun

Ishidaira

Bastola

2010

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Rainfall-runoff models are common tools for river discharge estimation in the field of hydrology. In ungauged basins, the dependence on observed river discharge data for calibration restricts applications of rainfall-runoff models. The strong correlation between quantities of river cross-sectional water surface width obtained from remote sensing and corresponding in situ gauged river discharge has been verified by many researchers. In this study, a calibration scheme of rainfall-runoff models based on satellite observations of river width at basin outlet is illustrated. One distinct advantage is that this calibration is independent of river discharge information. The at-a-station hydraulic geometry is implemented to facilitate shifting the calibration objective from river discharge to river width. The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) is applied to model calibration and uncertainty analysis. The calibration scheme is demonstrated through a case study for simulating river discharge at Pakse in the Mekong Basin. The effectiveness of the calibration scheme and uncertainties associated with utilization of river width observations from space are examined from model input-state-output behaviour, capability of reproducing river discharge and posterior parameter distribution. The results indicate that the satellite observation of the river width is a competent surrogate of observed discharge for the calibration of rainfall-runoff model at Pakse and the proposed method has the potential for improving reliability of river discharge estimation in basins without any discharge gauging.

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Comparison of two model approaches in the Zambezi river basin with regard to model reliability and identifiability

Cited by 69 publications

References 17 publications

Modelling stream flow and quantifying blue water using a modified STREAM model for a heterogeneous, highly utilized and data-scarce river basin in Africa

Modelling stream flow and quantifying blue water using a modified STREAM model for a heterogeneous, highly utilized and data-scarce river basin in Africa

Spatial linkages between coral proxies of terrestrial runoff across a large embayment in Madagascar

Towards improving river discharge estimation in ungauged basins: calibration of rainfall-runoff models based on satellite observations of river flow width at basin outlet

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