Comparisons of numerical phenology models and machine learning methods on predicting the spring onset of natural vegetation across the Northern Hemisphere

Cap. 14. Calidad del aire. En: La Quinta Evaluación Nacional del Clima

“…Los avances recientes han mejorado nuestra comprensión de las influencias climáticas sobre el polen. Estas incluye una mejor comprensión de la fenología de las plantas 203,320,321,322,323 , mejores mediciones de las concentraciones de aeroalérgenos 194,201,324 , nuevas plataformas de modelación de las emisiones y el transporte de polen 204,205,207,325,326 , nuevas herramientas analíticas para el reconocimiento de patrones polínicos 327,328 , análisis automático de tipos de polen 329,330 y datos de teledetección sobre meteorología, calidad del aire y fenología 321,331,332 . Además de estos avances metodológicos que permiten conocer mejor los factores que influyen en la distribución y concentración de aeroalérgenos, las influencias climáticas son cada vez más claras a medida que el clima se modifica más, y las series temporales más largas permiten confiar más en las correlaciones observadas.…”

Long-term citizen science data reveals environmental controls on tropical tree flowering at the regional scale

“…Phenology in tropical trees is affected by seasonal changes in environmental factors distinct from temperate landscapes (Abernethy et al, 2018; Pau et al, 2011). Much of large-scale phenological studies have been recorded in temperate landscapes where seasons are distinct and correspond to starkly discernible plant responses like spring “green-up” or synchronised flowering (Elmendorf et al, 2019; Li et al, 2021). On the other hand, in tropical landscapes where trees grow and reproduce year-round, relevant environmental cues for phenological change are more diffused, need not coincide temporally, and could be different across species that co-occur in the same landscape (Abernethy et al, 2018; Chen et al, 2018; Parmesan, 2007).…”

“…The occurrence of the phenophase, which encompasses the life-cycle of the phenophase, can be an indicator of the net availability of flowers and fruits in the landscape. The onset of tree reproductive phenology is triggered by the release of florigen hormones but can be triggered by a variety of environmental cues in different species (CaraDonna et al, 2014; Li et al, 2021; Satake et al, 2013). A variety of environmental cues that link to temperature, precipitation and solar radiation; cold days, dry spells, total accumulated rainfall and soil moisture can not only affect the onset, but also the persistence of a phenophase (Brearley et al, 2007; Diez et al, 2014; Pau et al, 2013; Wright & Calderón, 2018).…”

“…Phenology of tropical and temperate trees respond to different sets of environmental factors (Pau et al 2011, Abernethy et al 2018). For example, in temperate landscapes, distinct growing seasons correspond to rapid phenological onset responses like spring “green-up” or synchronised flowering (Elmendorf et al 2019, Li et al 2021). On the other hand, in tropical landscapes where trees grow and reproduce year-round, environmental cues for phenological change are more spatially and temporally diffuse (Parmesan 2007, Chen et al 2018, Abernethy et al 2018).…”

“…For instance, even within the same year (similar climatic cues), trees in North America, Europe and China have been found to flower earlier in cities than in surrounding non-urban habitats, likely due to urban heat island effects (Neil and Wu 2006). Tropical tree phenology also exhibits large variation among individuals, necessitating large spatial samples besides long-term data for a process-based understanding(Satake et al 2013, CaraDonna et al 2014, Li et al 2021). A recent review of reproductive phenology studies from the Neotropics showed that across 218 datasets, the majority of datasets lasted 2 years or less, and only 10.4% monitored > 15 individuals per species (Mendoza et al 2017).…”