Competing events, mixtures of information and multistratum recapture models

Lebreton, Jean‐Dominique; Alméras, Tancrède; Pradel, Roger

doi:10.1080/00063659909477230

Cited by 137 publications

(139 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…Conceptually, animals stochastically move among many different latent states, such as alive and onsite, temporary migrant, and dead, of which only the onsite state is observable and available to be detected. While such a multi-state formulation does not change the likelihood of the PCRD and inferences thereof, it does provide a comprehensive framework to unify many capture-recapture ideas, such as including other geographic or reproductive states or recruitment processes (Lebreton et al, 1999). Bayesian versions of the multi-state model have existed (Dupuis, 1995), but practical application of such models was difficult for ecologists because they required one to custom-make Bayesian sampling algorithms.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Another important development for temporary migration CMR models was the recognition that they are a specific type of the "multi-state" model (Brownie et al, 1993;Lebreton et al, 1999Lebreton et al, , 2009). Conceptually, animals stochastically move among many different latent states, such as alive and onsite, temporary migrant, and dead, of which only the onsite state is observable and available to be detected.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A Full-Capture Hierarchical Bayesian Model of Pollock's Closed Robust Design and Application to Dolphins

et al. 2016

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We present a Hierarchical Bayesian version of Pollock's Closed Robust Design for studying the survival, temporary migration, and abundance of marked animals. Through simulations and analyses of a bottlenose dolphin photo-identification dataset, we compare several estimation frameworks, including Maximum Likelihood estimation (ML), model-averaging by AICc, as well as Bayesian and Hierarchical Bayesian (HB) procedures. Our results demonstrate a number of advantages of the Bayesian framework over other popular methods. First, for simple fixed-effect models, we show the near-equivalence of Bayesian and ML point-estimates and confidence/credibility intervals. Second, we demonstrate how there is an inherent correlation among temporary migration and survival parameter estimates in the PCRD, and while this can lead to serious convergence issues and singularities among MLEs, we show that the Bayesian estimates were more reliable. Third, we demonstrate that a Hierarchical Bayesian model with carefully thought-out hyperpriors, can lead to similar parameter estimates and conclusions as multi-model inference by AICc model-averaging. This latter point is especially interesting for mark-recapture practitioners, for whom model-uncertainty and multi-model inference have become a major preoccupation. Lastly, we extend the Hierarchical Bayesian PCRD to include full-capture histories (i.e., by modeling a recruitment process) and individual-level heterogeneity in detection probabilities, which can have important consequences for the range of phenomena studied by the PCRD, as well as lead to large differences in abundance estimates. For example, we estimate 8-24% more bottlenose dolphins in the western gulf of Shark Bay than previously estimated by ML and AICc-based model-averaging. Other important extensions are discussed. Our Bayesian PCRD models are written in the BUGS-like JAGS language for easy dissemination and customization by the community of capture-mark-recapture (CMR) practitioners.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Full-Capture Hierarchical Bayesian Model of Pollock's Closed Robust Design and Application to Dolphins

et al. 2016

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“…Here, we apply the idea to populations that exhibit the two types of temporary emigration and analyze the estimabilty of parameters. Our results generalize those of Clobert et al (1994), Lebreton et al (1999), and in that we apply the method to inter-birth temporary emigration, analyze more general cases of immature temporary emigration, and use a formal method to determine estimable parameters.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 86%

Mark-recapture statistics and demographic analysis

Fujiwara¹

2002

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Mark-recapture analysis of populations is becoming an important tool in population biology. Mark-recapture methods can be used to estimate transition probabilities among lie-stages from capture histories of marked individuals for which stages can be determined at each sampling occasion. This method is called a multi-stage mark-recapture (MSMR) method. In this thesis, I describe advances I made in the MSMR method and present analyses that apply this method to actual data.The advances I made in the MSMR method are motivated by a need to provide a link between mark-recapture data and demographic models such as matrix population models and integrodifference models. I resolve some issues that are commonly encountered during sampling, such as the fact that the sex or lie-stage of some individuals is unknown during some sampling occasions and that individuals become unobservable during some lie-stages.

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“…Ecological studies might benefit from combining NGS with other sources of information in order to augment genetic data, validate results obtained from NGS, and verify that assumptions of NGS-based CMR are met, with the ultimate goal of increasing the reliability and resolution of studies based on NGS (for example see Solberg et al 2006, Meijer et al 2008, and Mondol et al 2009). CMR approaches that allow for the analysis of data from multiple sources of information (Lebreton et al 1999) are bound to further increase the utility of NGS. Nonetheless, when combining NGS data with other sources of information, one should take care to determine whether knowledge obtained from alternative sources is applicable to the system explored via NGS.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Linking noninvasive genetic sampling and traditional monitoring to aid management of a trans‐border carnivore population

Bischof¹,

Swenson²

2012

Ecological Applications

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Abstract. Noninvasive genetic sampling has been embraced by wildlife managers and ecologists, especially those charged with monitoring rare and elusive species over large areas. Challenges arise when desired population measures are not directly attainable from genetic data and when monitoring targets trans-border populations. Norwegian management authorities count individual brown bears (Ursus arctos) using noninvasive genetic sampling but express management goals in the annual number of bear reproductions (females that produce cubs), a measure that is not directly available from genetic data. We combine noninvasive genetic sampling data with information obtained from a long-term intensive monitoring study in neighboring Sweden to estimate the number of annual reproductions by females detected within Norway. Most female brown bears in Norway occur near the border with neighboring countries (Sweden, Finland, and Russia) and their potential reproduction can therefore only partially be credited to Norway. Our model includes a simulation-based method that corrects census data to account for this. We estimated that 4.3 and 5.7 reproductions can be credited to females detected with noninvasive genetic sampling in Norway in 2008 and 2009, respectively. These numbers fall substantially short of the national target (15 annual reproductions). Ignoring the potential for home ranges to extend beyond Norway's borders leads to an increase in the estimate of the number of reproductions by ;30%. Our study shows that combining noninvasive genetic sampling with information obtained from traditional intensive/invasive monitoring can help answer contemporary management questions in the currency desired by managers and policy makers. Furthermore, combining methodologies and thereby accounting for space use increases the accuracy of the information on which decisions are based. It is important that the information derived from multiple approaches is applicable to the same focal population and that predictions are crossvalidated. When monitoring and management are constrained to administrative units, census data should be adjusted by discounting portions of individual space utilization that extend beyond the focal jurisdiction. Our simulation-based approach for making such an adjustment may be useful in other situations where management authorities target portions of transborder populations.

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Competing events, mixtures of information and multistratum recapture models

Cited by 137 publications

References 22 publications

A Full-Capture Hierarchical Bayesian Model of Pollock's Closed Robust Design and Application to Dolphins

A Full-Capture Hierarchical Bayesian Model of Pollock's Closed Robust Design and Application to Dolphins

Mark-recapture statistics and demographic analysis

Linking noninvasive genetic sampling and traditional monitoring to aid management of a trans‐border carnivore population

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