Competitive Analysis of Heavy Trucks with Five Types of Fuels under Different Scenarios—A Case Study of China

Abstract

As the country that emits the most carbon in the world, China needs significant and urgent changes in carbon emission control in the transportation sector in order to achieve the goals of reaching peak carbon emissions before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. Therefore, the promotion of new energy vehicles has become the key factor to achieve these two objectives. For the reason that the comprehensive transportation cost directly affects the end customer’s choice of heavy truck models, this work compares the advantages, disadvantages, and economic feasibility of diesel, liquefied natural gas (LNG), electric, hydrogen, and methanol heavy trucks from a total life cycle cost and end-user perspective under various scenarios. The study results show that when the prices of diesel, LNG, electricity, and methanol fuels are at their highest, and the price of hydrogen is 35 CNY/kg, the total life cycle cost of the five types of heavy trucks from highest to lowest are hydrogen heavy trucks (HHT), methanol heavy trucks (MHT), diesel heavy trucks (DHT), electric heavy trucks (EHT), and LNG heavy trucks (LNGHT), ignoring the adverse effects of cold environments on car batteries. When the prices of diesel, LNG, electricity, and methanol fuels are at average or lowest levels, and the price of hydrogen is 30 CNY/kg or 25 CNY/kg, the life cycle cost of the five heavy trucks from highest to lowest are HHT, DHT, MHT, EHT, and LNGHT. When considering the impact of cold environments, even with lower electricity prices, EHT struggle to be economical when LNG prices are low. If the electricity price is above 1 CNY/kWh, regardless of the impact of cold environments, the economic viability of EHT is lower than that of HHT with a purchase cost of 500,000 CNY and a hydrogen price of 25 CNY/kg. Simultaneously, an exhaustive competitiveness analysis of heavy trucks powered by diverse energy sources highlights the specific categories of heavy trucks that ought to be prioritized for development during various periods and the challenges they confront. Finally, based on the analysis results and future development trends, the corresponding policy recommendations are proposed to facilitate high decarbonization in the transportation sector.