Compilation and forecasting of paleoliquefaction evidence for the strength of ground motions in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

Rasanen, Ryan A.; Marafi, Nasser A.; Maurer, Brett W.

doi:10.1016/j.enggeo.2021.106253

Cited by 10 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 59 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Of relevance to the development of ''magnitude-bound'' relationships (e.g. Rasanen et al, 2021), the most distal observation of liquefaction had an epicentral, Joyner-Boore, and rupture distance of R EPI = 74 km, R JB = 73 km, and R RUP = 90 km, respectively. A succinct summary of the compiled case histories is given in Table 1.…”

Section: Compilation Of Case Historiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Select liquefaction case histories from the 2001 Nisqually, Washington, earthquake: A digital data set and assessment of model performance

Rasanen

Geyin²,

Maurer

2023

Earthquake Spectra

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

While soil liquefaction is common in earthquakes, the case-history data required to train and test state-of-practice prediction models remains comparatively scarce, owing to the breadth and expense of data that comprise a single case history. The 2001 Nisqually, Washington, earthquake, for example, occurred in a metropolitan region and induced damaging liquefaction in the urban cores of Seattle and Olympia, yet case-history data have not previously been published. Accordingly, this article compiles 24 cone-penetration-test (CPT) case histories from free-field locations. The many methods used to obtain and process the data are detailed herein, as is the structure of the digital data set. The case histories are then analyzed by 18 existing liquefaction response models to determine whether any is better, and to compare model performance in Nisqually against global observations. While differences are measured, both between models and against prior global case histories, these differences are often statistically insignificant considering finite-sample uncertainty. This alludes to the general inappropriateness of championing models based on individual earthquakes or otherwise small data sets, and to the ongoing needs for additional case-history data and more rigorous adherence to best practices in model training and testing.

show abstract

Section: Compilation Of Case Historiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Select liquefaction case histories from the 2001 Nisqually, Washington, earthquake: A digital data set and assessment of model performance

Rasanen

Geyin²,

Maurer

2023

Earthquake Spectra

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Obermeier and Dickenson (2000) back-calculated a max along the banks of islands in the Columbia River of Oregon and Washington for the 1700 Cascadia subduction earthquake. Their estimation of a max was as low as 20% of those predicted by recent M 9 simulations (Rasanen et al, 2021). They used hand-held dynamic cone penetrometer measurements rather than standard penetration test (SPT) or cone penetration test (CPT) measurements.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation of historical earthquake-induced liquefaction in Fraser River delta using NBCC 2020 GMPEs in deterministic and probabilistic frameworks

Javanbakht,

Molnar,

Sadrekarimi

et al. 2023

Earthquake Spectra

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Paleo-liquefaction features of sand dykes and sand blows were identified in the 1990s at multiple host sediments in the Fraser River delta in southern British Columbia all younger than 3500 BP. These paleo-liquefaction sites could be linked to Cascadia subduction earthquakes. Empirical magnitude-bound relationships are often used to estimate paleo-earthquake magnitudes. To determine the lower bound magnitude of Cascadia interface earthquakes that could have generated the paleo-liquefaction features, we use ground motion prediction equations for interface earthquakes from the sixth Canadian seismic hazard model of the 2020 National Building Code of Canada. We estimate the minimum M and its peak ground acceleration ( amax) of an interface earthquake required to initiate paleo-liquefaction in the study region. Starting with three full-rupture deterministic scenarios of varying source-to-site distance, we determine the minimum M required from Cascadia subduction zone interface mega-thrust earthquakes to induce liquefaction in the Fraser River delta spans 8.0–8.9 with a corresponding amax range of 0.09–0.13 g. We also perform a back-calculation paleo-liquefaction analysis in a probabilistic framework to incorporate aleatory uncertainties (cone penetration resistance, groundwater table, and amax) and epistemic uncertainties (liquefaction simplified model) via the Monte Carlo simulation. The developed probabilistic methodology is also applicable to a forward liquefaction assessment and other liquefaction sites globally. The median M from this probabilistic paleo-liquefaction for the four investigated sites lies between 8.8 and 9.0. Our probabilistic results also reveal that Cascadia interface earthquakes with M > 8.9 lead to a 31%–57% probability of liquefaction triggering in the Fraser River delta. In addition, we developed deterministic and probabilistic magnitude-bound curves specific to Cascadia interface earthquakes and representative site class E conditions. These curves provide more accurate magnitude estimations for predicting seismic-induced liquefaction from Cascadia interface earthquakes for sites in the Pacific Northwest than empirical bound curves.

show abstract

Probabilistic seismic source inversion from regional landslide evidence

Rasanen

Maurer

2021

Landslides

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Compilation and forecasting of paleoliquefaction evidence for the strength of ground motions in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

Cited by 10 publications

References 59 publications

Select liquefaction case histories from the 2001 Nisqually, Washington, earthquake: A digital data set and assessment of model performance

Select liquefaction case histories from the 2001 Nisqually, Washington, earthquake: A digital data set and assessment of model performance

Estimation of historical earthquake-induced liquefaction in Fraser River delta using NBCC 2020 GMPEs in deterministic and probabilistic frameworks

Probabilistic seismic source inversion from regional landslide evidence

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About