Compilation and interpretation of photochemical model performance statistics published between 2006 and 2012

Simon, Heather; Baker, Kirk R.; Phillips, Sharon

doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2012.07.012

Cited by 214 publications

(151 citation statements)

References 93 publications

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“…Others have also found the CMAQ to predict ozone mixing ratios that were biased high (Eder et al, 2009;Tang et al, 2009;Zhang et al, 2012a, b;Wilczak et al, 2006). Simon et al (2012) completed an exhaustive comparison of photochemical performance statistics reported from 2006 to 2012, whereby national median in mean bias for hourly ozone was approximately 4 ppb; for 1 h maximum ozone it was approximately 8 ppb (Simon et al, 2012). In comparison, the bias determined in this study would be higher than the 75th percentile of studies of hourly ozone mean bias for the 40 studies compiled by Simon et al (2012).…”

Section: Comparison Of Ferry Ozone With Cmaq Experimental Model Forecmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…Simon et al (2012) completed an exhaustive comparison of photochemical performance statistics reported from 2006 to 2012, whereby national median in mean bias for hourly ozone was approximately 4 ppb; for 1 h maximum ozone it was approximately 8 ppb (Simon et al, 2012). In comparison, the bias determined in this study would be higher than the 75th percentile of studies of hourly ozone mean bias for the 40 studies compiled by Simon et al (2012). The work presented here represents the first study of CMAQ model bias over the water of Lake Michigan and shows a higher bias than over the surrounding land.…”

Section: Comparison Of Ferry Ozone With Cmaq Experimental Model Forecmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Ozone distributions over southern Lake Michigan: comparisons between ferry-based observations, shoreline-based DOAS observations and model forecasts

et al. 2015

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Abstract. Air quality forecast models typically predict large summertime ozone abundances over water relative to land in the Great Lakes region. While each state bordering Lake Michigan has dedicated monitoring systems, offshore measurements have been sparse, mainly executed through specific short-term campaigns. This study examines ozone abundances over Lake Michigan as measured on the Lake Express ferry, by shoreline differential optical absorption spectroscopy (DOAS) observations in southeastern Wisconsin and as predicted by the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. From 2008 to 2009 measurements of O 3 , SO 2 , NO 2 and formaldehyde were made in the summertime by DOAS at a shoreline site in Kenosha, WI. From 2008 to 2010 measurements of ambient ozone were conducted on the Lake Express, a high-speed ferry that travels between Milwaukee, WI, and Muskegon, MI, up to six times daily from spring to fall. Ferry ozone observations over Lake Michigan were an average of 3.8 ppb higher than those measured at shoreline in Kenosha, with little dependence on position of the ferry or temperature and with greatest differences during evening and night. Concurrent 1-48 h forecasts from the CMAQ model in the upper Midwestern region surrounding Lake Michigan were compared to ferry ozone measurements, shoreline DOAS measurements and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) station measurements. The bias of the model O 3 forecast was computed and evaluated with respect to ferry-based measurements. Trends in the bias with respect to location and time of day were explored showing nonuniformity in model bias over the lake. Model ozone bias was consistently high over the lake in comparison to landbased measurements, with highest biases for 25-48 h after initialization.

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Section: Comparison Of Ferry Ozone With Cmaq Experimental Model Forecmentioning

confidence: 98%

Section: Comparison Of Ferry Ozone With Cmaq Experimental Model Forecmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ozone distributions over southern Lake Michigan: comparisons between ferry-based observations, shoreline-based DOAS observations and model forecasts

et al. 2015

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“…emission rates) of sources elsewhere (ENVIRON, 2005b;Castell et al, 2010;ENVIRON, 2012a;Kelly et al, 2015; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2015). Measurements of O 3 enhancements made as part of in-plume aircraft transects for very large single sources of NO X (Luria et al, 2003;Springston et al, 2005) show similar impacts as those in Fig. 5 although direct comparability is cautioned since it is not clear that the in-plume measurements captured downwind peak O 3 levels from these sources.…”

Section: O 3 Impacts From Single Sourcesmentioning

confidence: 77%

“…A large body of work exists using photochemical transport models to estimate the aggregate effect of regional emissions on downwind ozone and PM 2.5 air quality (Simon et al, 2012). However, few studies examine the effects of single sources.…”

Section: Review Of Existing Single Source Impact Assessmentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A number of studies examine the effect of regional scale emissions on PM 2.5 concentrations (Simon et al, 2012). Fewer studies (see Table 2) have attempted to quantify the effects of single sources on downwind PM 2.5 concentrations, and fewer still that report estimated secondary PM 2.5 enhancements from these single sources (Baker and Foley, 2011;Baker and Kelly, 2014;ENVIRON, 2012a; National Association of Clean Air Agencies, 2011).…”

Section: Pm Impacts From Single Sourcesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Estimating ozone and secondary PM 2.5 impacts from hypothetical single source emissions in the central and eastern United States

Baker

Kotchenruther

Hudman

2016

Atmospheric Pollution Research

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Fine-scale simulation of ammonium and nitrate over the South Coast Air Basin and San Joaquin Valley of California during CalNex-2010

Kelly

Baker

Nowak

et al. 2014

J. Geophys. Res. Atmos.

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National ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) have been set for PM 2.5 due to its association with adverse health effects. PM 2.5 calculations suggest that overpredictions of NH x in Pasadena cause excessive partitioning of total nitrate to the particle phase overnight, while underpredictions of Na + cause too much partitioning to the gas phase during the day. Also, the model seems to underestimate mixing during the evening boundary layer transition leading to excessive nitrate formation on some nights. Overall, the analyses demonstrate fine-scale variations in model performance within and across the air basins. Improvements in inventories and spatial allocations of NH 3 emissions and in parameterizations of sea spray emissions, evening mixing processes, and heterogeneous ClNO 2 chemistry could improve model performance.

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Compilation and interpretation of photochemical model performance statistics published between 2006 and 2012

Cited by 214 publications

References 93 publications

Ozone distributions over southern Lake Michigan: comparisons between ferry-based observations, shoreline-based DOAS observations and model forecasts

Ozone distributions over southern Lake Michigan: comparisons between ferry-based observations, shoreline-based DOAS observations and model forecasts

Estimating ozone and secondary PM 2.5 impacts from hypothetical single source emissions in the central and eastern United States

Fine-scale simulation of ammonium and nitrate over the South Coast Air Basin and San Joaquin Valley of California during CalNex-2010

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