Complex adaptive systems-based framework for modeling the health impacts of climate change

Talukder, Byomkesh; Schubert, Jochen E.; Tofighi, Mohammadali; Likongwe, Patrick J.; Choi, Eunice Y.; Mphepo, Gibson Y.; Asgary, Ali; Bunch, Martin J.; Chiotha, Sosten S.; Matthew, Richard; Sanders, Brett F.; Hipel, Keith W.; vanLoon, Gary W.; Orbinski, James

doi:10.1016/j.joclim.2023.100292

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

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“…We based this representation on the analysis of qualitative data to reconstruct changes in livelihoods, following the path (changes>impacts on livelihoods>responses>impacts). To do this, we developed a model based on previously described people's perspective, in the form of a diagram, showing the influence of changes on livelihoods, as well as interactions and feedback inside the system (Fig 3) based on a "common sense approach" [18], converging with to the conceptualised system dynamics model presented by Hossain et al [27] and the complex adaptative system [35] produced by Talukder et al [36] of social ecological system in Bangladesh. The three field researchers validated the final version by consensus.…”

Section: Plos Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

“…intensifying climate-induced changes, such as changes in rainfall pattern and intensity, is likely to increase environmental stress locally and in the country, impacting local livelihood, wellbeing and health [36,81] and pushing this rural population out of their community. Due to the disruption that migration brings to migrants' lives and the exchange of risks they experience [82], their health is also affected, making them even more vulnerable.…”

Section: Supporting Informationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Local social-ecological context explains seasonal rural-rural migration of the poorest in south-west Bangladesh

Clech,

Sierra,

Mannan

et al. 2024

PLOS Clim

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Bangladesh is one of the countries most affected by climate change. Internal migration is often presented as a response to environmental degradation. Here, using a people-centred perspective, we explore the complexity of the links between climate-induced change, environmental degradation caused by waterlogging and seasonal rural migration. We used an inductive qualitative approach in social sciences, conducting fourteen semi-directed interviews and six focus group discussions in March-April 2022. We related those results to a rainfall analysis on CHIRPS data for 1981-2021and we represented interactions and feedback between changes and livelihoods in a model. A complex picture of the situation is emerging, showing the interweaving effects of non-climatic and climatic changes, their interplay at different scales, their cumulative effects, the interactions between livelihood types and feedback between social and natural systems. Most of the climate-induced changes gradually become noticeable over the past 25 years. Climate data confirm these changes in recent decades, with July being wetter and January being dryer. Villagers reported waterlogging as the most significant change in their community, pointing to its multiple causes, originating in non-local and local, non-climatic anthropic changes, exacerbated by shrimp farm enclosures and worsened by climate-induced changes such as heavier rains, wetter monsoons and cyclones. Tiger prawn farms, reported as a lucrative and local adaptation to waterlogging and salinisation for the ones who can afford it, worsen the situation for the less wealthy, causing waterlogging and salinisation of the adjacent agricultural lands and buildings, the disappearance of traditional fishing and a reduction of the local job market. In addition, erratic rain patterns, droughts and cyclones affect local production and labour markets. COVID-19 lockdowns, by impacting markets and mobilities, further aggravated the situation. Inequality has increased as the range of adaptations of the less wealthy appears limited in this context of multiple crises.

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Section: Plos Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Supporting Informationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Local social-ecological context explains seasonal rural-rural migration of the poorest in south-west Bangladesh

Clech,

Sierra,

Mannan

et al. 2024

PLOS Clim

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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The Badolo HealthResilience Scientific Framework for health system resilience roadmaps

Badolo

2024

Preprint

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Baground: Health systems resilience to climate change is an essential aspect of overall resilience to climate change in a given context. Significant impacts of climate change on health systems could significantly reduce the capacities and resources of the main socio-economic sectors for resilience and development. particularly, climate change impacts on health systems would increase social inequality and disparities. The development of efficient scientific frameworks for the construction of inclusive configurations of health systems on which climate change has only residual impacts remains a scientific challenge to be considered. Methods: The purpose of this article is to describe the Badolo HealthResilience scientific framework for climate resilience of health systems. It includes methodological tools, bodies of information and solutions and a resilience scheme for efficient resilience roadmaps, based on the concepts of residual vulnerabilities, residual impacts and resilience configurations, trajectories and markers. It integrates contextual specificities, gender, social inclusion and population migration risks. Results: The results of this article include methodological tools, climate change impact vectors, climate vulnerability vectors, climate resilience vectors, gender and social inclusion vectors, population migration risks integration vectors and health systems resilience roadmaps, that are decision-making tools for formulating, planning, managing, monitoring and evaluating health systems resilience to climate change, based on contextual challenges and capacities. Conclusion: The Badolo HealthResilience scientific framework can be a decision-making tool to build more relevant, efficient and effective health systems resilience governance models. The main levers of these governance models are the engagement, mobilization, participation and contribution of populations

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A Fuzzy Logic Framework for Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystems

Imamguluyev,

Maharramova

2024

International Journal of Innovative Science and Research Techno

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Climate change poses significant challenges to ecosystems, necessitating robust models to predict and manage its impacts. This paper presents a novel fuzzy logic framework designed to model the complex and uncertain interactions between climate change variables and ecosystem responses. The proposed framework leverages fuzzy logic's ability to handle imprecise and ambiguous data, providing a more nuanced understanding of how temperature fluctuations, precipitation changes, and extreme weather events affect biodiversity, species distribution, and ecosystem services. By integrating ecological knowledge with fuzzy inference systems, the model offers a flexible tool for simulating various climate scenarios and their potential effects on ecosystems. Case studies demonstrate the framework's applicability across different ecosystems, highlighting its potential to inform conservation strategies and policy- making. This work contributes to the growing body of research on climate change modeling, offering a powerful approach to anticipating and mitigating the adverse effects of environmental changes on natural habitats.

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Complex adaptive systems-based framework for modeling the health impacts of climate change

Cited by 3 publications

References 115 publications

Local social-ecological context explains seasonal rural-rural migration of the poorest in south-west Bangladesh

Local social-ecological context explains seasonal rural-rural migration of the poorest in south-west Bangladesh

The Badolo HealthResilience Scientific Framework for health system resilience roadmaps

A Fuzzy Logic Framework for Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystems

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