Complex Economic Consequence Analysis to Protect the Maritime Infrastructure

Egan, Dennis; Nelson, Christie; Roberts, Fred S.; Rose, Adam; Tucci, Andrew; Whytlaw, Ryan

doi:10.1109/hst56032.2022.10024979

Cited by 6 publications

(2 citation statements)

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“…Our analysis is intended to provide valuable insights into policies and strategies to reduce the negative impacts of the disruption of the war on individual countries in the global economy. Work is underway to develop a more comprehensive model of compounding and cascading supply-chain disruptions (see Egan et al, 2022).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The economic impacts of Russia–Ukraine War export disruptions of grain commodities

Rose

Chen

Wei

2023

Applied Eco Perspectives Pol

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Using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) computable general equilibrium model, we analyze the economic impacts of grain export disruptions caused by the Russia-Ukraine War during the first year of hostilities. The simulation results indicate that these disruptions not only affect Ukraine and Russia but also generate significant economic impacts across other world regions. Ukraine is projected to experience the largest impact on its own economy, with a real GDP loss of $859 million. In contrast, Russia's GDP is projected to decline by only $3.8 million, primarily due to its much lower dependence on grain exports and to favorable terms of trade effects.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%